The Pilot Pipeline: A Primer on the Pilot Shortage Debate
by Evan Baach
This is part one of a five part series about commercial air travel — about how it will change considerably in the future, not through technology, but through unaddressed, systemic challenges related to a looming pilot shortage in the United States.
Timing, policy and economic forces have coalesced to create a perfect storm of events that will change where and when we fly.
Part one is a quick primer on these issues. The subsequent four parts of this series will address these areas in more depth.
The Pipeline
To best illustrate the issues at play, this series refers to the “pipeline.” This metaphorical pipeline refers to the process through which pilots gain entry into the airline industry.
Step 1: Initial Flight Training — approximately a $80,000–100,000 investment, significant opportunity costs, as well as an investment in time.
Step 2: Time Building — working as a flight instructor or small cargo carrier, generally for low pay in poor working conditions for several years.
Step 3: Work at a Regional Airline or Corporate Flight Department — pay and work rules are improving at this level, as regional airlines compete for pilots from a dwindling pool of resources.
Step 4: Flying for a Major Airline (United, Delta, Southwest, etc.) — for many, this is the ultimate goal. Major airlines are currently hiring thousands of regional pilots year, which is expected to continue (barring any shocks to the industry) for years.
This is a common progression from an interest in an aviation career into working as a pilot in a large airliner. By no means is the pilot pipeline this simple in reality, as there are numerous career tracks into various positions in the airline industry.
New Regulations
Over the last several years, there have been several new regulations that have begun to impact pilots and the airlines they work for. These policies have been implicated in simultaneously decreasing pilot workforce efficiency and increasing the barriers to entry into the profession. There may be some truth to those allegations.
The most impactful of these regulations increase protections for fatigued pilots, limit hours worked, and increase minimum experience for new airline pilots. The regulations, as a whole, are aimed at improving air carrier safety, and I believe they do. However, they come at a significant cost to pilots, airlines, and the communities they serve.
In short, these regulations have been implicated as a barrier to entry for future pilots (by increasing the length of time a pilot spends training), as well as mandating a larger workforce through decreased schedule efficiency.
Airlines have begun to adjust to these new realities — and airlines that are able to maximize efficiency of workforce and fleet in light of these changes will continue to succeed.
Changing Demographics
The next time you step onto an airliner, consider the age of your Captain. He or she is most likely over the age of fifty, in fact, they are probably over the age of fifty-five. The same might be said for your First Officer.
Airline hiring in the United States has historically been a series of rapid growth spurts. One of the largest of these was in the 1970s, as jet travel became increasingly popular and (relatively) afforable. Alas, many of these pilots (largely military-trained) were hired over a compact period of years.
And many of these pilots are set to retire over the next decade. The planes they pilot, however, aren’t going anywhere — as long as there are enough pilots in the pipeline to fly them. That’s the issue.
Replacements?
When we glance at the numbers of pilots who are qualified to replace those anticipated to retire, there are simply not enough qualified pilots in the pipeline.
The best-case scenario would require that every retiring pilot would be replaced by a pilot with their sights set on flying for a major airline. However, not every qualified pilot intends on moving into the flight deck of a large airline. They may be perfectly content working for a regional airline, corporate operation, cargo carrier, or flight school. Some will leave the profession entirely.
In fact, the numbers indicate that fewer pilots are setting their sights on major airlines. As major airlines hire regional airline pilots, the ranks at regional airlines will dwindle. And with fewer qualified applicants setting their sights on regional carriers, the stage is set for small and midsize communities to lose service. It has already begun.
The current pipeline of pilots is unsustainable and will eventually dry up. This is the crux of the matter. How do we replenish the pipeline? How do we increase the number of pilots in the pipeline while dealing with the high costs associated with that transition?
The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), a large pilot union, argues that paying pilots more will solve the problem. Higher pay equals a better return-on-investment: pilot shortage solved. While higher pilot pay is a position the union and its members can support, the solution is not that simple.
Higher pilot pay does not address the sizable structural problem: the rapid rate of retiring pilots and the dearth of those set to replace them. Higher pay does not directly translate into fixing the pipeline itself, only promoting one plausible avenue to slowly increase pilot supply.
The life of an airline pilot may not be as attractive as it once was, the realities of the modern demands of today’s traveler having taken its toll on the industry. This issue remains a thorn in the side to companies that will have to address their aging, and rapidly retiring, workforce.
The Business-Side Solution
The most viable solution, and the most probable in my opinion, is that the number of pilots required to operate flights will simply decrease to a sustainable level. In other words, the “water” required to flow through the pipepine will decrease. We will just need fewer pilots.
This will be accomplished through business-side decisions including a) decreased frequency to many cities and b) increased aircraft size to accommodate travelers.
The adverse impact on communities is clear: fewer travel options a d decreased service to many small and midsize communities.
The Regulatory Solution
The solution that would most probably avoid drastic service cuts and increased ticket prices would involve training more pilots. This comes at a cost.
The flight training footprint is lengthy, and handcuffed by regulation. Current regulations would have to shift to promote alternate means of training — a cost-effective, modern training footprint based on global counterparts. Boeing is betting on this form of training as a global solution.
In my opinion, this solution is highly unlikely in the near term in the United States.
Various options in this scenario exist. Some changes will require regulatory changes surrounding how we train our pilots. The advantage of a refreshed training footprint may include decreased training costs through increased effiency during the training cycle.
Ultimately, restructuring flight training will cost money and take significant political will. Will business and legislators work toward a solution before the impact of a pilot shortage is felt nationwide?
Next Time
Our next segment explores “the pipeline” in more depth, discussing exactly what policies and demographics impact the pipeline today.
Evan Baach is a Partner at First Segment LLC, a consulting firm specializing in flight operations, training and education, and policy/regulatory matters. Opinions expressed here reflect only those of the author, and not those of First Segment LLC, it’s affiliates, clients or partners.
