The Plow — February, 24th

From: richard.hallberg
To: elisabeth.viner
Subject: NATO Memo

Elizabeth,

I just received the SHAPE memo from my source in Mons. They redacted half of it but it still confirms my suspicions, it seems.

First, here are the main points in the document:

• The ACO met last Saturday (22) during the evening, with the full force present (AIRCOM, LANDCOM, MARCOM, CIS GP, JFCNP, JFCBS). The meeting was presided by Walter D. Theodore. He’s an American from the US Air Force, and now acts as “Supreme Allied Commander Europe” — SACEUR in short. He’s the NATO boss in Europe, basically.
• There was also, quite logically, two delegations from Hungary and Romania. The Hungarians were led by one of their veterans from Serbia, a general called Bálint Gábor. He’s a hardliner, from what I remember. The Romanians sent Lucian Antonescu (he’s everywhere these days, isn’t he?)
• The big decision is to deploy the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) from Innsworth, England. It’s a so-called High Readiness Force, designed specifically for quick intervention in 72 hours, anywhere on the globe.
• The operation is called “Trajan”. No clue as to why, the memo doesn’t say. I have an intern working on it right now.
• The corps will take authority on the exclusion zone, which is for now maintained at 5 km on each side and 10 km on the front and back. The memo is in kilometers, so that should be about 3 by 6 miles.

That’s about it, most of the next dispositions are blacked out. I don’t think they will be declassified anytime soon, but every journalist on earth is there right now so they won’t be able to hide what they do. I guess we’ll know more soon from the field reports. Andréi is still over there, right?

This is what we have. Now, obviously, there’s more beneath the surface:

First, the English force, the ARRC, is designed to be operational for 30 days maximum. Secondly, while it’s international, the Hungarian takes no part in this specific corps. And finally, it can be deployed without a unanimous decision from member states.

All of this can only mean one thing. The council didn’t manage to agree on a long term solution. Meaning the Hungarians are resisting.

They probably had to allow a temporary force but my bet is that, as soon as the thing will cross the border, Viktor Orbán will expel the ARRC and announce that his army is taking back control of the operations. And I’d also wager that we’ll hear more from that Bálint Gábor then.

I know you’re gonna tell me that they can’t get rid of NATO just like that, that it would be an unprecedented violation of the treaty, and you’ll be absolutely right, but I reckon it’s the perfect opportunity for Orbán. He hasn’t missed a chance to undermine NATO in the last years, during the migrant crisis, Ukraine, Brexit, or more generally while getting closer to Putin. We actually covered that 2 years ago. Here’s also a paper from The Atlantic, food for thought.

Then again, while Orbán is doing politics, the thing keeps moving on. Whether he wants it or not, he will have to start dealing with Budapest’s fate. Right now everyone’s sticking their heads in the sand, no comment whatsoever, but if the Hungarians have to evacuate the city, I don’t see how they’ll do without NATO — or the international community, for that matter. It’s not a sleepy village in the countryside! It’s a thousand-year-old city with banks, museums, world heritage buildings…

Do you want me to start writing something about it or shall I stay on the NATO memo report for now?

Regards,

Richard Hallberg
Senior Editor, The Guardian

PS — Laura wants to know if you are still available for dinner at ours on Thursday night?

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