Is 2017 The Year Europe Discovers Its Soul?
The far right’s success may be its own downfall
Brexit and Trump may have reawakened Europe’s commitment to the EU and liberal democracy.
As 2016 came to an end, the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump left many in Europe wondering what the new year would bring. It’s fair to say the atmosphere in EU-friendly environments was anything but optimistic. 2017 was going to bring elections in the Netherlands, France, and Germany, all of which have seen a significant rise in nationalist and populist parties.
But the first test for Europe actually came late in 2016 in Austria. With the overturn of the initial election results by the Supreme Court earlier in the year, a fresh round of presidential voting took place on December 4, when Alexander van den Bellen, who’d initially won the race against the far-right Norbert Hofer, succeeded again by a margin of 53.8 to 46.2 percent. There was a sigh of relief for mainstream Europe. Austria hadn’t given in to the far-right contagion, even as the country faced a massive migration crisis that put significant strain on the country’s budget and services. Still, it is not negligible that nearly half of Austrian voters picked a fascist.
On the other hand, 2017 began with elections in the Netherlands. In March, the liberal parties of Holland, together with the Christian-Democrats, the left, and the Greens, have all campaigned on a platform of preventing the far-right populist, Geert Wilders, from getting more seats in the country’s Parliament. And they have succeeded, surpassing the more dire polling predictions. With only five additional seats in Parliament, Wilders remains a fringe politician. More than 80 percent of eligible Dutch voters took part in the elections, and so Wilders’ loss looks like a fairly emphatic rejection of the far-right.
No disrespect to Austria or The Netherlands, though, but the elections in France and Germany have huge implications for the future of the continent. After all, France and Germany are the two largest EU member states on the continent. And in France (more than in Germany), there was a real danger of a far-right victory.
We know now that Emmanuel Macron beat Marine le Pen, but that wasn’t a forgone conclusion. The main opposition to the fascist le Pen was supposed to be Francois Fillon, the choice of the French conservative party. However, mired in corruption scandals, he quickly lost ground in the polls, barely surviving in the third position. He was overtaken by the improbable independent candidate Macron. The young, charismatic leader and former minister in the socialist government had set up his own centrist movement for this election, called En Marche. With the French left in disarray and a conservative party in perpetual scandal, the only hope for defeating the far right was ultimately Macron.
He ran a clean campaign, free from any actual scandal; plus the French electoral system, with its two rounds of voting for presidential elections, made it slightly easier for Macron to rally the left, right, and center against a common foe, despite the electorate’s many initial divisions. It was hard to see how over half the voting population would go for a far-right candidate. Despite le Pen’s polished and careful rhetoric, the French people ultimately balked at what the Front National stands for.
And not only did Macron win, but he has a comfortable backing in parliament. Campaigning on a heavily pro-European platform, Macron now has a mandate to deliver on both domestic and EU reform.
When it comes to Germany, the situation is far less problematic and dangerous than France. The new chancellor could still be Angela Merkel, with the other option being the socialist Martin Schulz, former president of the European Parliament. Either way, they are both politicians within the norms of continental democracy — and they both fully believe in Europe and support the project of the European Union. However, given the large wave of immigration during the 2016 refugee crisis, Germany has seen an increased preference for the far-right party, AfD, and its anti-immigration, nationalistic and protectionist rhetoric. That, however, is now not expected to alter the general balance between left and right in Germany — and will most certainly not dictate the next chancellor. The rejection of far-right populism has global implications; as the US and UK have drawn inward, Germany may very well now be the de facto leader of the liberal democratic world.
The year 2016 could be defined as a soul-searching moment for Europe, in which the continent sought to define where it stood on a global scene.
In turn, 2017 may well be the year in which, for now, Europe has found a renewed urgency to protect and strengthen the EU and liberal democracy on the continent. Instead of the domino or trigger effect many feared, Brexit and Trump may have done just the opposite and woke voters up to the realities of the growing far-right threat.
There’s an increasing sense of unity and of support for liberal values that stand at the basis of the European Union. And given the vacuum left by the withdrawal of the US and UK from their traditional roles as global leaders, 2017 presents new opportunities for stronger, pro-EU leadership in key member states when it comes to defense, international cooperation, climate change, and development. But while Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Austria have reasserted their commitment to liberal government, the far right isn’t going away, and the challenge remains to address a positive vision rather than a reaction to what’s driven so many voters to populist nationalism and extremism in the first place.
Sabina Maria Ciofu is based in Brussels.
