Sic Semper Democratia
Power, politics, and the 2017 election in the Old Dominion
At their core, elections provide us with a rough gauge of the outcome of power struggles waged across the strata of American culture and society. They are far from the only struggles that matter, as decades of social mobilization and activism attest to, but the outcomes of every campaign have immediate consequences for policymaking and the perceptions of political forces.
Consider, for example, Republican Scott Brown’s surprise 2009 election to the late Ted Kennedy’s Massachusetts Senate seat, signaling the depth of partisan anger over the proposed Affordable Care Act and its potential to derail that effort altogether. Or the shocking defeat of Eric Cantor in a Republican primary election back in 2013. Cantor was the GOP Minority Whip at the time and his loss demonstrated that conservative activists could and would sink members of the GOP establishment if they failed to fight the Obama administration with sufficient tooth and nail. And then there was the unforeseen staying power of Bernie Sanders in the drawn-out 2016 primary fight, showing that — among myriad possible interpretations — there was plenty of potential discord within Democrats’ supposedly well-ordered ranks.
Sifting through the interpretations of such victories (or near-misses) is what keeps pundits in print and talking heads on the air. Yet, a general takeaway is that achieving public victories — particularly the unexpected ones — leaves anybody paying attention with the sense that something is at work behind the scenes. Witness the vast and unending debate about what Donald Trump’s victory means for (and what it tells us about) the United States of America. It is an industry unto itself.
With that in mind, Democrats (slash the Left) need to figure out what their recent national shellacking means — as well as how they can encourage folks to devote the time, energy, money, and ingenuity it will take to keep the GOP to just two years of unified federal control. Not to downplay other forms of civic engagement, but staving off the wholesale destruction of the welfare state will likely require the Democrats to get their hands back on institutionalized levers of power. That starts this year in Virginia and New Jersey.
There are two regularly scheduled major elections in 2017 — the governorship of New Jersey and the governorship as well as the House of Delegates (the lower chamber) in Virginia. (Let’s leave the special elections in North Carolina for another time.)
The case for New Jersey is apparent: stick it to Christie, regain the governorship, secure a Democratic stronghold, and show that the promise of Trump has made limited inroads in the industrial corridors of the Northeast.
Far more, however, is on the line in Virginia, both in terms of what state Democrats stand to lose and what they — and Democratic momentum countrywide — might gain in a victory.
First off, the loss of the governorship almost certainly means 1-party rule in Virginia. The Virginia Senate (22–18 advantage to the GOP) sits until 2019, while the House of Delegates is so heavily gerrymandered that Democratic representation has hovered at around 40% or less of 100 seats — this in a state that is currently solid blue for state-wide offices and gave majorities to Obama (twice) and Hillary Clinton (barely).
(To be fair, gerrymandering sustained Democratic majorities in the House for 100 years, despite the complete transformation of the Party in the interim. Recent bipartisan efforts at depoliticizing the redistricting process have failed.)
In the past year alone, Gov. Terry McAullife has vetoed proposals to defund Planned Parenthood, subsidize coal production, and shield organizations and businesses that discriminate against LGBTQ customers and clients on religious grounds. Furthermore, a Democratic gubernatorial loss will mean the GOP will have trifecta control of 26 state governments, including all but North Carolina and Louisiana in the South.
True, picking up a governorship in New Jersey represents change of a kind, while another Democrat governor in Richmond means more of the same, but a solid Democratic win in Virginia — site of the former capital of the Confederacy — is far from a given, whatever the present projections are for contenders in head-to-head matchups. The gap will close and New Jersey is much more of a sure thing for the Dems.
Second, the governor’s race can — and should — utilize insights gleaned from the primary fight (see below) to benefit down-ballot races statewide. Democrats hold barely one-third of the House of Delegates (by a one-seat margin). Both sides, having internalized the logic of gerrymandering above, frequently leave a majority of seats uncontested (see the chart below). Contesting gerrymandering in 2020 means controlling — at a minimum — the Senate and the governorship, requiring a concerted push that has to begin now.
Local party organizations and initiatives like Progressive House VA — headed up by HD-12 candidate Tom Brock — are doing what they can to recruit candidates and stockpile resources. A reported target of 45 Democratic challengers would represent a clear improvement on 2015, forcing Republican donors to spread available funds more thinly than expected — though only 28 are registered at present. Liberal and progressive donors interested in more than currying favor with a new administration would do well to invest in down-ballot races and organizations — investments here will almost certainly boost the top of the ticket.
Third, there is a lot of information to be gleaned from Virginia about how organizational strategies, proposed policies, and messaging can play nationwide. While no state can be everything, present-day Virginia is a diverse electoral playing field both demographically and economically: coal country and ex-coal country down in the Southwest, shipyards and naval bases in the Southeast, a burgeoning tech sector amid the well-to-do DC suburbs, plus farmland, fisheries, and more.
My own home region of Hampton Roads encompasses both Pat Robertson’s Regent University and the headquarters of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals. Statewide, we host some of the bluest of solid-blue swathes (here’s looking at you, Arlington) as well as some of the nation’s most conservative counties and cities.
Like New Jersey, there’s a solid primary fight to wade through first.
The current Democratic frontrunner is Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam, native son of the state’s rural Eastern Shore peninsula. A doctor and an Army veteran, he exemplifies the kind of center-left pragmatism that has characterized recent Democratis holding statewide office in Virginia.
In the challenger’s corner, unexpectedly, sits Tom Perriello, a former Congressman for Virginia’s 5th District. He joined Barack Obama in victory in 2008, only to fall to the Republican resurgence two years later despite an energetic defense of the President’s agenda at the time. He’s lately been front-and-center in trying to ride the liberal zeitgeist, explicitly casting his primary run as a challenge to Donald Trump’s electoral victory.
The primary fight will undoubtedly shunt both candidates out to the left (especially Northam), as each contends for victory in the highly partisan environment of an off-off-season primary— something the GOP establishment in the state has lost no time crowing over. The challenge will be to mitigate any risk of seeming too “extreme” for Virginia — land of the center/center-left Senator — by leveraging enthusiasm, media attention, and knowledge of the “political terrain” earned from the primary to launch an effective general campaign in the summer and fall. As it stands, most respondents to a recent Quinnipiac Poll for the state could only say it was “too soon to tell” how they felt about the pair.
For their part, the wide field of Republican contenders has been content to leave the fireworks to the other side, not sticking their necks out in the assumption that the ultimate victor will be able to leverage significant nationwide funds and organizational support (particularly anti-abortion and gun rights groups) to plod along to a low-key victory. The Republican Governors’ Association has already placed a $5 million bet on the outcome of the general election, whoever the nominee is.
The Democratic nominee, channeling the national party mood, will seek to leverage anti-Trump sentiment against his opponent, with the inevitable rejoinder likely to include a churlish reminder that the capital of Virginia is Richmond, not DC.
There are no guarantees that any of this will translate — nationwide — to more than fodder for political junkies and armchair liberals, of course. Yet, if politics is the art of the possible, then this is one possibility clearly worth investing in.
For more on Virginia Politics, check out the Virginia Public Access Project, offering a wealth of information (and a convenient newsletter) on what’s afoot in the Old Dominion State.
Check out Tom Brock and Progressive House VA for more on efforts to swing House of Delegates races, as well as this profile of once and future candidate Cheryl Turpin (D HD-83).
For the aforementioned political junkies, the Washington Post will undoubtedly provide extensive coverage of the governor’s race through 2017.
Andrew Leber is a Ph.D. student at Harvard University’s Department of Government. He’s based in Boston.
