A Geopolitical Tug of War: The South China Sea Conflict
As reported by France24 early last month, The French Defence Minister, Florence Parly announced that once again French navy vessels — one of which carried nuclear capabilities — have concluded a patrol through the South China Sea. This comes on the back of the news that Chinese military activity in the region has “risen steadily” as reported by the USS Theodore Roosevelt — surely a development that will be addressed by newly inaugurated president Biden in the coming months.
To understand the significance of such developments, let’s backtrack to the establishment of the Shangri-La Dialogue; Asia’s premier security forum attended by defence ministers, permanent heads of ministries and military chiefs to engage in defence diplomacy. A milestone for this summit materialised in 2011, when members proposed the implementation of a new multilateralism within the South China Sea to ultimately deal with the region’s most pressing security challenges. Since then, nations have become more wary of the centralised control China has taken in the region. During the 2019 forum, countries reasserted their interventionist policies in the South China Sea (SCS) with the hope of regional stabilisation. Being a key activist for this, France’s Parly reaffirmed the country’s commitment to the region to which she boldly phrased “It takes no Kissinger to see the building blocks of a global confrontation taking shape here in Asia — This is only the beginning”.
Sailing Close to the Wind
A natural inquiry to make is to why there is tension and who the primary actors are. Within the Indo-Pacific zone, multiple countries have ongoing maritime territorial disputes. More loosely phrased, there has been a tug-of-war for atolls, shoals and reefs between Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia & China for many decades now with very little progress made.
Justly, countries base their claim from the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which states an EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) extends 200 nautical miles off their shore giving them access to reserves in their waters — except for one that is. China uses historical arguments to make significantly larger territorial claims, infringing in other countries’ EEZs, further solidifying its hegemonic position.
A term that has been thrown around by Beijing for many years now is the rather ambiguous nine dash line — first coined by China in the 1940’s — a boundary that covers more than 80% of the SCS & extends almost 2,000 km (just under 1,100 nautical miles) from the Chinese Mainland exceeding and overlapping neighbouring EEZ’s.
Troubled Waters: US & China
If we rewind to Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy in 2011, the US have consistently sought what they dubbed a ‘rebalance of US power & influence in the Asia-Pacific region’. State actors in China viewed this rather satirically claiming this has been a coy attempt at Chinese ‘containment’ and general defence against the threats surrounding the Spratly & Paracel islands which hold extreme geostrategic importance for leverage in the waters. This hostility between the two nations carried forward into the succeeding Trump administration — both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo & Vice-President Pence criticised China’s expansion policies. Pompeo stated “China’s pursuit of offshore resources is completely unlawful & illegal” condemning China’s “campaign of bullying” peripheries. Pence has also been vocal, adding the need to “stand with allies to uphold order by defending freedom of the seas and skies” and reiterating that the US “will not be intimidated” by its Chinese counterparts.
The news of China and the US clashing on contemporary issues is nothing new; often they are found sparring on international affairs. In the past this has been their contrasting take on democracy in Hong Kong, the containment of the coronavirus pandemic and even the data security of media platform TikTok. Adding fuel to the fire, one may wonder why the US is taking such a proactive and rather abrasive standing in a region so far from home?
Prominent defence and national security think tank, The International Institute for Strategic Studies analyses the Indo-Pacific zone by its own geostrategic interest. As with most countries, the US is invested into the economic security of the region; it acts as a strategic corridor for the West Coast of the US to the Middle East markets providing a route for 14% of its maritime trade and a secure sea lane for service vessels. Adding to this, the US has many allies on the sea’s doorstep; namely the Philippines, Japan, South Korea & Indonesia being their strongest advocates and supporters.
Oil & Gas Fuelling Tensions
A likely reason for this friction is the high economic stakes involved. The SCS is home to one of the most essential maritime crossroads for the Pacific Ocean & Indian Oceans, the Strait of Malacca. It acts as a commercial gateway that accommodates one third of the world’s maritime shipping accounting for over $3 trillion in trade. For China, nearly 40% of their total trade in 2016 transited through the South China Sea. It is well recorded that China has an import dependency for crude oil and that the SCS is crucial for sustaining this — 22.6% with 15 million barrels travel through the SCS daily of which 42% is directly to Chinese ports (2016).
Secondly, Asia has always been in the conversation for competitive fisheries, being home to some of the largest marine ecosystems in the world. From 1940 to 2014, the South China Sea encased over 500 million tonnes of total catch and in 2015, totalling 12% of global fish catch and 50% of the world’s fishing vessels. To add some grounds for comparison, this is larger than both neighbouring Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea catches combined.
Lastly, the opportunity for hydrocarbon exploration, namely natural gas & crude oil. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates there to be approximately 11 billion barrels (bbl) of oil reserves and 190 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves in the South China Sea. With these numbers being representative of both proven and probable reserves, it is challenging to create a holistic picture of hydrocarbon exploration. However, it offers an insight into the potential goldmine that lays below the seabed.
Sink or Swim?
The future of the South China Sea looks bleak to say the least. Some political commentators take a rather radical & coercive forecast believing a proxy war could be on the horizon with others having a more optimistic outlook for the Sino-American relationship expecting a diplomatic rescue of sorts.
With a newly elected Democrat as president, what intentions the US and supporting Western states have, what their next move may be and the fate of the SCS are still rather unknown. What we do know is that in the coming months and years, Biden’s office will have to confront this friction that is becoming ever more difficult to solve.
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