Poland’s Shift to Authoritarianism and the Role of the EU: A case for closer European Integration
(Source: u/devler via Reddit)
In 2015 the Eurosceptic ‘Law and Justice’ party won the Polish general election with 37.6% of the vote. The more liberal ‘Civic Platform’, which was governing at the time only reached 24.1%. This turning point appeared like a shift in the political landscape of Poland — a drastic move against the stream of preceding political and economic developments, which were assumed to be continually nudging Poland ideologically closer towards the European West. Yet with the re-election of the Law and Justice party in 2019 (with 43.6% of the popular vote, the highest any party has scored since Poland’s return to democracy in 1989), it appears as though the paradigm shift in Polish politics has officially been reversed.
Changes in the political landscape under ‘Law and Justice’
Changes induced by the Law and Justice party since its ascent to power in 2015 are primarily targeted at Poland’s judicial system. An example is a recently passed, highly contentious law which will make rulings by local courts punishable. This opens up the possibility of sacking judges if they rule against changes imposed by the ruling party, allowing judicial power to be concentrated within the Law and Justice party, which through its majority already has complete control over the country’s legislature. Spectators, especially from the camp of Brussels, are now rightfully concerned that this will undermine the country’s hard-fought democratic system by impairing the checks and balances which constitute its foundation. By expanding its reach to two of the central pillars of democracy (legislature and judiciary), the Law and Justice party threatens to do just that. The supreme court, which has largely retained its independence, is now the last bastion of judicial autonomy in Poland and has already passed a resolution illegitimating several laws passed by Law and Justice which are intended to give politicians power over regional courts. However, the resolution was rejected by the current ministry of justice, the head of which, Zbigniew Ziobro, accused the supreme court of violating constitutional laws.
The result is a judicial system which is essentially split in two — with individual judges left to decide whether to follow the lead of the ruling party or abide by the supreme court rulings. Insecurity has arisen for everyone with opinions diverging from the position of the Law and Justice party, including journalists and independent bloggers, who have to fear for adequate trying of their cases, private and otherwise.
A detail that raises eyebrows
Given the evidence provided by voting patterns, the naïve observer would have little reservations against painting a picture of the Polish mentality which in its resumé is highly conservative and Eurosceptic. Especially the latter could not be further from the truth: Surveys conducted in Poland which ask the participants whether EU membership is seen as being good or bad for the country overall reveal a surprisingly stable pattern of support for the European Union over the past decade. Even the most recent Eurobarometer (opinion survey from the European Parliament), which was conducted five months before the reelection of Law and Justice, indicates a strong pro-European sentiment in the country. The results show that Polish people are more confident and hopeful towards the future of the Union than the average EU-citizen, while also showcasing a higher than average engagement with European politics (watching/reading about European politics on TV/online/print-media). However encouraging this observation may be, it begs the question of how to make sense of recent voting patterns in Poland.
A ghost from the past
For those nations of Western Europe making up the bulk of today’s economic and political power in the European Union it seems like an eternity ago — but many citizens of the eastern states still live in fear of it: The time when Russia was a major power on the continent. Long before the Second World War, the grip of the Russian empire on vast parts of Europe was firm and that of the successive Soviet Union no less so. Many states which used to make up the ‘Eastern Block’ still share a very vivid memory of what it means to live under authoritarian rule. In 2014 — one year before the Polish voted for their new right-wing government, Russian forces under the executive order of president Putin launched an offensive against Ukraine. The target: a formerly Russian-held and geopolitically crucial port — the Crimean Peninsula. Russia justified her invasion of Crimea based on ancient claims, going back over 100 years to a time when Russia still held that part of the continent. As Poland itself has been overrun and occupied by Russia more than once, the fear amongst its people, albeit readily dismissed as irrational by its western neighbours, is real. Apart from increases in defence spending, modernisation of weaponry, aircrafts and missile systems, the new Polish government has increasingly sought a connection to the various shooting clubs around the country. In these private, paramilitary-esque training camps non-conscripted Polish citizens have been training military tactics/weapons handling for decades in anticipation of a potential reopening of the eastern front.
The European response
The role of the NATO and European Union during the Crimean crisis was a rather passive one, as both players essentially watched as the peninsula was occupied, attempting to soothe cries for help with occasional sanctions and the relocation of resources to neighbouring countries. Ideas for a joint European army have been appearing and disappearing in the Union for a couple of decades, but a decisive move towards this end has yet to be made by the European heads of state. And since the EU parliament does not possess the right to initiate/propose resolutions itself it may take a couple more decades still, before (if at all) a joint army may come into existence. The EU is well aware that the countries which make up the Union all have different reasons for being a part of it, and naturally attempts to balance those interests as to maintain stability and satisfy the needs and wants of all of its states. Yet latest developments in form of Brexit and increasingly radical voting patterns, resulting in the establishment of far-right governments in Poland, Hungary and Italy are a strong indication of a general discontent with the way interests are balanced within the EU and the speed at which progress is made.
If the heads of state wish to keep the Union intact and maintain the trust which many European citizens still place in it, they will have to consider further increasing the speed of European integration and deepen cross-country ties in sectors like defence, taxation, regulation of the digital space. For if the European Union does not start taking the concerns of its members more seriously, it may fall victim to a state of policy paralysis and eventually decay.
Sources:
A. A. 26th October 2015. Poland Elections: Conservatives secure decisive win. Warsaw: BBC news. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34631826
J. S. 24th January 2020. Poland’s clash over justice system leaves courts in chaos. Warsaw: Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/416bb91c-3ebc-11ea-a01a-bae547046735
J. S. 30th October 2014. Poland is preparing for a potential Russian invasion. Boston: Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/poland-is-preparing-for-a-russian-invasion-2014-10?r=US&IR=T
European Parliament. 2019. Emotions and Political Engagement towards the EU (Study). European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/emotions-and-political-engagement-towards-the-eu
