The Sino-Indian border dispute: Why a war is a possibility
The deserted peaks of the Himalayan mountains, some 6,000 meters above sea-level, have recently become the scene of rising tensions between two nuclear powers; China and India. Fighting between the two broke out in early May 2020, following the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) occupation of what India claims as its territory along the western front. Skirmishes along the 3,500km border are not uncommon as the two countries have been locked in a border dispute for over 70 years. However, what seemed like a periodic flare-up had soon turned sinister, with both sides suffering casualties resulting from a deadly clash in the Galwan Valley on June 15, 2020, marking the first deaths of this dispute in 45 years. The details of the incident are vague, with reports stating that there have been over 20 casualties. However, the event has garnered international attention, and rightfully so.
The two nations, having gone to war in 1962 and taken part in several clashes since, have made some attempts to rectify the borders first drawn up by the British empire. Managing only to devise a makeshift demarcation labeled the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 1996, the line tends to shift as it is based on geographical features of the high-altitude terrain, often leading to overlapping territorial claims. However, because of the relative ease of resolving these occasional stand-offs, the two nations foolishly never felt compelled to establish an actual border. Nevertheless, the festering of this dispute has turned the region into a geopolitical mess, and the recent clashes along the western front have upped the ante, making a full-blown military conflict a real possibility.
What has caused the recent rise in tensions?
Several experts have pointed their finger towards the development of infrastructure in Ladakh as the primary reason for Chinese transgression. The western sector — which has historically been under Chinese stronghold — has started to see a shift in influence with India making a concerted effort to improve its access to this part of the LAC. Some of these efforts include the completion of the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road, an all-weather route that connects this remote part of the world to an airstrip. With India altering some arbitrary notion of the status quo, by posing a more significant threat to Chinese influence, the PLA’s efforts could be considered as a pre-emptive strategy.
However, the Indian cynics have been quick to denounce this narrative, claiming that China’s encroachment into Indian territory points to a broader agenda of Chinese expansionism. Ashok Kantha, former Indian ambassador to China, states that the Galwan Valley, where the deadly stand-off occurred, was never a region that was previously in contention. However, China’s intrusion into this undisputed area indicates the undertaking of a more aggressive strategy. According to Kantha, its actions parallel those of its efforts in the South China Sea and Hong Kong, which has seen China take on an increasingly stricter stance. The growing presence of the PLA and their frequent incursions along the border are a reflection of this. These events also come at a time where India has been distracted with an accelerating pandemic and a crippling economy.
The rise in tensions can also be attributed to China taking on an intimidatory role against India. The cultivation of Indo-American relations on cultural, economic, and militaristic dimensions has seen India engage in a quasi-alliance, placing it squarely against Chinese interests. From China’s perspective, India has always been a subordinate power. But with India knocking on China’s door with a newfound alliance, the intrusions into Indian territory signals an indirect threat; should India entertain the idea of closer ties with the USA, it could face significant retaliation.
Although India’s critics do not deny these claims, they have suggested that India is equally guilty in provoking tensions. The Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to provide China a prodigious amount of dominance in both regional and global trading markets, runs parallel to the disputed border. In addition to quietly expanding infrastructure, India has assumed a nationalistic mission to ‘regain’ what is rightfully theirs. The revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s constitutional autonomy in 2019 — a region infamous for overlapping territorial claims between India, China, and Pakistan — has undermined the security of China’s initiative. Furthermore, talks of taking back Aksai Chin amongst politicians in New Delhi has seen China condemn India on the international stage. China had rightfully gained the region of Aksai-Chin in the Sino-Indian war of 1962. However, with India undermining Chinese territorial claims, China has been very clear that it will not sacrifice territorial integrity for the sake of good relations. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that tensions between the two have escalated to new heights.
Is the prospect of military conflict imminent?
The Galwan Valley incident has pushed the border dispute into new territory. It would not be far fetched to claim that the possibility of war is real. Over the last decade, the region has witnessed more frequent clashes between the troops, and the increasing militarization of the border has meant that clashes have become harder to resolve. The previous stand-off between the two occurred in 2017 when Indian and Chinese troops fought in Doklam. Lasting for over two months, the incident saw both sides engaged in a diplomatic deadlock while the situation worsened on the front line. Although there were no casualties, it required rigorous negotiations and significant pressure from the international community to resolve the issue. However, now that both countries have nationalist governments at the helm, and the most recent incident resulting in the first casualties in 45 years, the current skirmishes will by far be the hardest incident to address yet.
Nevertheless, although a military conflict is a real possibility, it is an unlikely one. Like the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction, both countries are more than aware that military conflict will lead to significant damage to both parties. Pitting the largest militaries with nuclear capabilities against each other is a sure-fire way to ensure substantial destruction. Besides, the current pandemic and economic circumstances of the two nations are not conducive to sustain a conflict. With the two economies facing a significant economic downturn, a conflict in the Himalayas would only direct resources away from what are arguably more critical issues.
Similarly, the implications of this dispute go further than the snow-capped mountains of the rugged landscape. The nature of their growing alliances suggests that the international community will inevitably be involved in the discord, should it escalate into a military conflict. The strength of the USA’s support for India or Pakistan’s alliance with China is unclear, especially for war-time, but the mere thought of such an occurrence is enough of a deterrent. The global superpowers have stressed the importance of immediately reaching a peaceful agreement to reduce tensions quickly along the frontier.
Although the two nations have responded to the clashes through economic means, with India banning certain Chinese apps, they have taken measures to mitigate the hostility by underscoring the importance of a deal to pull back their troops. Diplomatic talks are underway, in tents pitched high up in the mountains, and down in the foreign offices. Despite many questioning the efficacy of their bilateral mechanisms, the discussions have ensured that no further skirmishes have taken place.
But these are only temporary solutions. Much like previous resolutions to conflict, attempts are being made to address the current issue, but they will fail to resolve the broader problem. The nature of this dispute has changed over the years; it is no longer just over territorial claims, but the conflict encapsulates a dimension of power relations. The failure to establish a concrete border will only increase the stakes as both countries continue to exert their influence in the region. The frontier’s growing instability already demonstrates this; it only took sticks and stones, the most unassuming of weapons, to escalate the current dispute into the global limelight. Unless efforts are made to identify a mutually agreeable border, the likelihood of a military conflict becomes an increasing reality in the near future.
The bibliography for this post can be found in another post titled “Article References” on my profile.
