Votes, Money, and Fuel: The Nigerian Presidential Election
Presidential elections and controversy
On February 25th, 2023, millions of people across Nigeria made their way to the voting booths to decide which candidate would take the country’s reigns by the end of May. Just a couple of days later, the polls would point to Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) party as the victor of a historical election for the African country. The former Lagos governor entered the election race as somewhat of a clear favourite, with a broader network and support group, a larger budget to run mass advertising and a significant amount of political experience. Tinubu even received the backing of the current president, Muhhamadu Buhari, who reacted quite positively to the news of the results: “Elected by the people, he is the best person for the job.”
At the age of 70, Tinubu is quite a controversial figure in Nigerian politics, and his election was sure to bring a lot of questions and doubts. There are worries about his health, forcing him to cancel a number of campaign events, as well as doubts about his public speaking skills. Many compare him to the current president, since they are part of the same political party, who did not live up to expectations. Additionally, there are concerns about his reputation, with people pointing to the time where he settled a case where he had been accused of laundering drug money by the American government.
Tinubu had to face some surprisingly fierce competition from opposing candidates Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, with the former accumulating almost 7 million votes. With the closure of the voting booths, and the ballots tallied up, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has received lots of backlash regarding the validity of the outcome. In fact, with an alarmingly low voter turnout rate of just 26%, along with alleged corruption and technical failures happening around the country, many are not convinced that Tinubu was the candidate chosen by the people.
The low voter turnout rate can be tied to a problem with unprinted voter cards and fuel shortages which made it difficult for many Nigerians to cast their votes. Those that did manage to reach voting stations were sometimes met with violent attacks and intimidation from local gangs and groups, or even the absence of election officials who decided not to show up. The Election Observation Mission of the European Union stated that although fundamental freedoms of assembly and movement were “largely respected”, a lack of transparency and operational failures reduced trust in the electoral process and “challenged” the right to vote.
Source: Ben Curtis/The Associated Press
So far, the INEC has denied all allegations and claims regarding the alleged corruption and the integrity of the recent presidential elections, with chairman Mahmood Yakubu stating that the votes were cast and counted legitimately, in a democratic manner. With these results, Tinubu is set to be sworn into office on May 29, becoming the fifth Nigerian president since the democratisation of the country and the shift towards the Fourth Republic in 1999. Despite this historical victory, the president-elect does not have much time to celebrate, as his country is still feeling the effects of the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Crisis after crisis
Nigeria is in a sticky situation at the moment. Despite being Africa’s most populous country with over 200 million people, along with being the continent’s largest economy with a GDP of over $440 billion in 2021, the country finds itself in a crisis, which many claim stems from the oil production shortages. In 2019, the oil industry was responsible for 80% of its budget revenues, and 95% of its foreign exchange earnings. However, between 2020 and 2022, crude oil production decreased by 23%, reaching its lowest point since 1990. This problem, which puts the Nigerian economy and financial situation on the ropes, not to mention the lack of revenue diversification, stems from increased oil theft, often incited by regional terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and criminal gangs from around the country.
At the end of 2022, inflation was recorded at 21.5%, the highest it’s been since September 2005, while the Nigerian Economic Summit Group estimated that unemployment rates will reach 37% this year. Meanwhile, the value of the Nigerian currency, the naira, has plunged, causing a deepening fiscal crisis, paired with shortages of domestic and foreign currency. At the beginning of February, the Central Bank attempted to replace old banknotes with new ones, a move that would prove to be catastrophic and cause cash shortages, mass protests, vandalism, and violence. To make matters even worse, the rationing of dollars, paired with the adoption of multiple exchange-rate regime makes the African country a very unattractive one for foreign direct investment at the moment.
Nigerians are even having trouble with transportation, having to wait hours at gas stations due to acute fuel shortages caused by a gasoline subsidy that allows for the price of fuel to reach as low as $0.5 per litre, making it one of the lowest rates in the world. Consequently, this will cost the government the equivalent of roughly $13 billion in 2023, directly impacting the amount of funding the country can afford to place in other crucial sectors such as health and education.
What likely frustrates the people of Nigeria the most is the fact that lots of these problems date back to the 2015 elections, where current president Buhari pledged to take action in order to deal with debt that has done nothing but grow exponentially since then. Samuel, an electronic engineer based in the city of Maiduguri, told local media outlet HumAngle that, “people are unhappy, and when unsatisfied, you don’t expect their full participation. People are getting hungrier, people are in pain, and you are talking about elections (…) the government watches people crying, and it refuses to listen to those cries.”
Source: Ben Curtis/The Associated Press
Looking ahead
Tinubu, as part of his presidential campaign led by the slogan “It’s my turn”, committed to redirecting government funding towards the sectors that need it the most: health and education, along with infrastructure and social welfare projects. He also guaranteed the removal of fuel subsidies which cost his country billions of USD last year. Additionally, the president-elect pledged to limit the nation’s exposure to foreign-currency debt, making use of this mechanism only in a situation where the project which derives from the non-naira loan generates enough to repay the debt in full and benefit the national economy in the medium to long term.
Whatever path the president-elect decides to take, he needs to act sooner rather than later. With the mountain of problems that Nigeria is dealing with, the first couple of months in office will be crucial in dictating the future of the nation. In addition, with the current controversies surrounding the legitimacy of the election process, and opposing candidates pushing for a revote, the fiscal and social problems waiting for him from May 29 onward seem like the least of his worries. In fact, it is difficult to foresee a future where Nigeria climbs out of this hole when the country is as divided as it is at the moment. With the election results split almost evenly between the three candidates and rising levels of violence and theft on a national level, there is only so much a newly elected president can do in response to these issues.
Nigeria finds itself in a very dark place, and the most that the new president-elect can hope to do is to guide their people towards the light at the end of the tunnel which, at the moment, is very dim. It will take a firm push towards fuel subsidy and foreign-exchange reforms in order to attract international investment, which could eventually be used in an effort to invest in sectors such as health, education, security, and more generally in nationwide industrial development projects. But, again, there is no magic bullet. Whichever path the president-elect decides to take, it will have to be with the objective of long-term, rather than short-term, success and prosperity. This might involve a period of initial struggle for the people of Nigeria, something most would be hesitant on doing. However, if the president-elect does not take action quickly, the country might end up more divided and impoverished in the long-run than it has been in many years.
