The Good News For Democrats: They’re Not Republicans
But they must work harder if they want to win
Democrats are feeling a sense of panic as the upcoming election approaches. Both the presidential race and the generic party ballot are tied.
Despite passing numerous policies since 2021 and the criminal conviction of former President Donald Trump, President Biden has yet to see a meaningful shift in national support. But it’s too early to tell how the conviction will ultimately affect the race and we are still in the dark about the implications of Trump’s sentencing in July.
The good news for Democrats: they aren’t Republicans.
National polls don’t tell the full story. Not only are Democrats performing better in swing states compared to Republicans, but individual Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate in individual swing states are also surpassing their Republican opponents by a notable margin. This should be positive news for Democrats.
But persistent concerns overshadow notable achievements
Inflation has been a persistent concern throughout Biden’s term. There seems to be a disparity between the macro-economic trends we see and read about — like the stock market and consumer spending — and the public’s sentiment about it — termed “the vibecession.” The highest interest rates since the Great Recession feed into this sentiment, leading voters to feel it even more.
Nonetheless, there are notable achievements Democrats could highlight economically: inflation on food, natural gas, and new vehicles is lower now than compared to when Biden took office. Democrats’ enactment of the CHIPS Act, along with record-highs in domestic oil production and U.S. manufacturing construction spending, and improvements in wages and employment rates, are tangible successes that can be presented to voters.
I think the true challenge is the Democrats’ apprehension to talk about any of this. They ostensibly fear Republican backlash when promoting economic accomplishments. They should be more confident. Democrats must pressure voters into wondering if how they feel about the economy reflects reality — show them real progress has been made while pushing back against Republican criticism.
And then there’s immigration
Regarding immigration, Biden has put forward substantial proposals in the past. They’ve included increasing funding for additional border patrol agents, deploying enhanced surveillance technologies at border crossings, and addressing the root causes of migration.
Despite Democrats’ support for a Republican-led immigration bill in the Senate to restrict the number of asylum seekers allowed into the country, the initiative faced opposition from Donald Trump, who pressured Republicans into rejecting it in order to gain electoral leverage. Democrats should be acknowledging this fact in front of the camera, in editorials and speeches, every single day until the election — even Republicans who sponsored the bill went on television arguing that Trump was at fault.
Biden also recently signed an executive order that is more strict than the Republican-led bill in the Senate: limiting the number of asylum seekers to 2,500 instead of 5,000. Republicans subsequently argued the order came “too late” while hoping voters give them control of the government so they can solve the problem at least six months from now.
Abortion should be another winning issue for Democrats
On abortion, Democrats have been leading the charge to advocate for abortion rights since the overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022. They have gained significant support from various states, including predominantly Republican ones, through various ballot referendums on abortion legality.
Trump, on the other hand, has criticized abortion restrictions in Republican states, influenced the way Republicans view IVF treatment, and suggested restricting contraceptives (later denied by Trump on social media). It’s clear the traditional Republican pro-life stance is slowly dying out, and they likely won’t stand a chance of figuring out what to do by November.
Democrats must try harder if they want to win
Democrats should be contrasting their proposals and records to that of the alternative, represented by Trump, at every waking moment. The key factor in this endeavor is the Democrats’ effort. The specific level of effort — and valuation of where to exert the effort — has sparked debates on the left about Democratic messaging and emphasis on particular issues.
Matthew Yglesias advocates for increased donor spending for moderate party factions and suggests that progressive Democrats limit their criticisms of Biden on foreign policy and immigration, where they could be inadvertently helping the Trump Campaign and hurting the Democrats’ coalition.
Others, like Will Stancil, argue that Biden should concentrate on highlighting Trump’s shortcomings rather than focusing on the issues since Biden hasn’t seen improvements in support, despite his accomplishments and juxtaposition to Republicans.
The internal debates in liberal circles on how to effectively persuade voters that Democrats are preferable to Republicans illustrate genuine concerns. My concern with these internal debates isn’t the content (I agree with Yglesias and Stancil for the most part) but rather the perceived sense of fear and urgency. These attributes are warranted and reasonable considering the potential outcome could be a convicted felon winning the White House and a Republican takeover of the legislature, but I think it’s an over-exaggeration.
Democrats undoubtedly have numerous advantages they can promote, as I’ve attempted to explain. They also benefit from the unfortunate and self-imposed position of Trump and the Republicans. Apart from the GOP infighting about its leadership in Congress, having a convicted felon as a presidential candidate is almost certainly a liability. Democrats should be taking advantage of the fact that most voters approve of Trump’s conviction.
Most Independents believe the prosecution upheld the rule of law. Half of Independents, and a considerable portion of Republicans, believe Trump should withdraw from his campaign altogether. Given the highly competitive nature of the race and the proximity to the upcoming election, where a small number of swing voters in a few key states are expected to sway the outcome, the significance of these facts amplifies.
Democrats should not be worried about their prospects in the 2024 election — not yet anyway. The political landscape, like the world itself, can change in one news cycle, so I think it prudent of me not to express overconfidence in predicting the outcome of the election as I criticize Democrats for being overly dramatic about potentially losing it.
Nevertheless, there seems to be too much deliberation within the Democratic Party about the Biden campaign’s strategy post-Trump’s conviction when action is what’s needed most. Whether it involves addressing Trump’s legal woes, emphasizing the Republicans’ lack of substantive legislative victories, or doubling down on their own policy achievements, the key is to take meaningful steps. Everyday. In front of the cameras and on social media.
Make voters aware, informed, and enthusiastic about either voting for Democrats or against Republicans. In the event of a Republican victory in 2024, Democrats should position themselves to assert, “We warned you!” by acting accordingly.
