Trick or Treat: Russia Stops Using Crimean Bridge to Supply Weapons
Putin’s army is using land routes to supply its troops
Without Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot roll over Ukraine. Without Ukraine, he will not have the space to invade Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — three nations with more better per capita GDP than Russia.
- Estonia: GDP per capita — $45,120
- Latvia: GDP per capita — $41,730
- Lithuania: GDP per capita — $50,600
- Russia: GDP per capita — $38,290
One day, Russians will realize that, on average, the people in the Baltics are much better off than they are. Having a democracy next door, and four thriving ones at that, serves as a stark indictment of Putin’s governance. He can’t afford to have people living next door to be better than him.
It is not far-fetched to say that Putin’s throne has one of its legs planted on Crimea, and the 19km long Crimean bridge is the link that keeps Crimea within the Russian sphere of influence. The political value of this bridge will always remain at the same level.
It will never change.
But on the military front, the value of the bridge has sharply come down. Analysis of satellite images by The Indepdendent, revealed that Crimean bridge “has almost no traffic and may therefore no longer represent an effective military target for Ukraine’s ammunition-strapped troops.”
“The decision to stop using the Kerch Bridge to resupply Russian forces has corresponded with a surge in freight traffic via Taman in the Rostov region, Molfar CEO Artem Starosiek told The Independent.
Kyiv should now focus its attentions on Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol, where Russia is laying new rail lines to connect these occupied Ukrainian regions with Crimea and mainland Russia”, Molfar CEO Artem Starosiek told The Independent. Molfar is Ukraine’s biggest private intelligence agency.
This is an excellent strategic and operational decision by the Russian armed forces. At one point, the Russian army used the Crimean bridge as a major thoroughfare for moving its supplies in and out of Crimea. With most of their warehouses and supply depots situated inside Crimea, the peninsula, which remained far outside the reach of Ukrainian artillery fire, became the backbone of Russian operations in Southern Ukraine.
A military truck filled with supplies will cross the Kerch bridge, heading into the warehouses in Crimea. From there, the supplies will be loaded onto trucks and wagons headed towards Kherson, Zaphorizhizhia, and other sectors.
Cutting that bridge after launching a massive assault on the southern frontline would almost certainly result in Russian frontline troops running short of ammo for a brief period. Without the bridge, Russia would need days, if not weeks, to establish alternate supply routes.
By forcing themselves to stop using the bridge, Russia has established an alternate supply route. The statement by Molfar CEO makes it clear that Russians are now exclusively using the overland routes to move their goods. This practically renders the Crimean bridge a civilian structure.
If Ukraine brings down the bridge, the Russians will waste no time in blaming Ukraine for attacking a civilian structure. The entire propaganda apparatus will swiftly blame the West and Ukraine as evil incarnates with no care for humanity.
I know it is bull shit.
This is an army that is trained to attack hospitals, developed a sick idea called double tapping with missile attacks, where they hit a location, wait for the first responders to arrive, and then they will hit again. A UN report says the Russian army is no stranger to raping grandmothers. The state has a set process to kidnap children. “Given the gravity of the identified violations, there is an undeniable need for accountability”, the Commission told the UN General Assembly.
The Commission documented attacks where explosive weapons were used indiscriminately in populated areas that were under attack by Russian armed forces, and found that Russian troops had attacked civilians attempting to flee.
The Commission documented patterns of summary executions, unlawful confinement, torture, ill-treatment, rape and other sexual violence committed in areas occupied by Russian armed forces across the four regions on which it focused.
But so far the west only keeps talking about Russian violations, while the Russian army keeps violating everything we could possibly imagine. They know the West will do nothing, and that the West never understands the value of an information war. So, all the bad deeds by Russia will be furiously refuted, while any reponse by Ukraine will be termed as horrific.
What should Ukraine do?
It has no choice whatsoever. As long as that bridge stands, Crimea will not be fully Ukraine. So, it has to go. It is not going to offer military value from here, but mostly information, political and long term strategic value. And values that Ukraine and the entire world needs. It will boost Ukrainian and western morale while denting the Russians.
I haven’t checked, but I am 100 percent confident that the Russians are still fully committed to protecting the bridge, despite the fact that it no longer offers them any military value.
The rearrangement of the supply lines makes Southern Ukraine an even more contested space. Thanks to Ukraine’s new capability, they can hit Russia’s overland supply routes connecting Russia with Southern Ukraine and Crimea.
Ben Hodges, who served as commanding general for United States Army Europe, says that though difficult, Ukraine has the ability to bring down the Kerch bridge using ATACMS:
“But destroying the bridge will be a difficult task. It has been expertly constructed to bear heavy traffic. Its size, strength, and durability are such that it has withstood repeated Ukrainian attacks.
For Kyiv to succeed in permanently disabling or destroying the bridge, Ukraine’s Western allies must provide far larger numbers of powerful precision-guided missiles. ATACMS missiles with unitary warheads could allow Ukraine to regularly strike the more vulnerable spans of the bridge, compelling security and repair crews to be present and vigilant and adding to Russia’s logistical burden.”
Bringing down the bridge will be a difficult task. There is a strong chance of failure. However, it is not an impossible task, and I think it will consume a ton of resources.
I do not think it will be worth the effort at this point in time. I am not sure how many ATACMS were given to Ukraine. Why should Ukraine waste so much capacity on a bridge that offers very little military value when those ATACMS could be used to destroy more air defense systems in Crimea and leave the Russian forces in occupied territory vulnerable to F16s?
- I think the Crimean bridge is not worth Ukraine’s attention right now.
- The best time to go after it would be when Ukraine is ready to punch towards the Sea of Azov.
The potential break down sequence:
When Ukraine gets ready to launch a counter-attack on the Southern frontline, they will impede Russian logistics running through the south. They will go after the rail and land routes connecting Crimea and Russian territories to disrupt Russian supply lines. Russia will then pivot to sending military supplies into Crimea by using the Crimean bridge. To prevent that from happening, the bridge has to be taken out.
That is not hunting for information value; that is driving the invaders out of your home.
Without Crimea Putin cannot revive the old Soviet Union
The importance of the Black Sea and Crimea cannot be understated. It is not without reason that the Russian army built so many airfields and had its Black Sea headquarters in Crimea. The peninsula is the key Russia needs to project its power into Europe and into the Middle East as well.
By taking back Crimea, Ukraine will not only secure its own future and avoid a repeat of February 2022 when Crimea enabled Russian forces to march into Southern Ukraine with alarming speed. Within days of launching the war, the Russians were all over Southern Ukraine. It was because of their naval bases in Crimea that they assumed they would be able to execute an amphibious landing on Odesa and march towards Moldova.
According to French President Emmanuel Macron, Odessa still remains a key objective of the Kremlin. Macron told French political leaders that he would send French troops to defend Ukraine in the event the Russian forces break the Ukrainian lines to reach…
- Kyiv and
- Odesa
If things go their way, the Russian armed forces will make an attempt to reach the shores on the easternmost end of the Black Sea. They will target Odesa as it will further strengthen their hold over Crimea and restrict Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea.
Allowing Putin’s forces to stay in Crimea poses a huge security threat for Ukraine, Europe and the entire democratic world.
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