The Narrative Fallacy

Why you shouldn’t always trust success stories

The Internet is full of articles analysing the factors that propelled certain startups and their founders to meteoric success. Adopting a certain strategy solved a certain problem leading to a certain result. All the dots join up perfectly in a neat linear sequence.

Take for example, the theory that the secret to the success of technology icons Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos and Larry Ellison was the fact that they were adopted.

It makes sense. Being adopted meant that they were provided with a strong motivation to succeed and prove themselves. It meant that they were comfortable being outsiders and unafraid to challenge the status quo.

But Jobs himself outright refuted the idea that his adoption had more than a coincidental effect on his success:

There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous […] Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special- Steve Jobs

That’s the power of the narrative fallacy- our tendency to condense complex realities into oversimplified stories that neatly…