The Brexit Daily, June 12 2016: The Out Camp’s Dodgy Dave Strategy Is Working

Aaron Timms

SMILE THROUGH THE PAIN. Prime Minister David Cameron appeared on several televised debates and panels last week, and on each occasion, the studio audience greeted him with a hail of vitriol. Someone, really, needs to do a supercut of the PM’s reactions: how many variations can a human produce on a tight, pained grin? Many, as it happens. Awkward for Cameron, fantastic entertainment for the rest of us. Does this matter? It definitely matters.

  • Today’s digital campaign score: In 43.38% vs. Out 60.97%. (Yesterday’s score: In 46.4% vs. Out 61.76%.)
  • The Out camp continues to hold the upper hand in the digital campaign, with its advantage holding steady at around 15 percentage points. Remain needs things to change. Things aren’t changing.
  • Remain’s official campaign material — mostly videos on the economic risks of Brexit posted to the Britain Stronger in Europe YouTube channel — is driving most of the online interest in the In camp.
  • Interest in the Out camp, by contrast, was driven almost exclusively late last week by pro-Leave videos attacking David Cameron. These clips mix old footage with new indignities.
  • Cameron is comfortably the In camp’s dominant presence; with Labour’s campaign approach muddled and Jeremy Corbyn left to wander the country half-heartedly pushing “the Labour case for staying” before sparse audiences, Cameron has had to shoulder the bulk of the campaign burden himself.
  • The Out camp has cleverly exploited this by turning the EU referendum into an approval poll on “Dodgy Dave” — and more and more of their digital campaign energy is now devoted to slamming the Prime Minister.
  • Remain is pursuing a digital strategy based on a wonkish argument about economic risk. Leave is pursuing a digital strategy that says: repel the migrant hordes and give Cameron a bloody nose. The latter is winning.

The Predata Brexit digital campaign score is generated by computing the daily, month-long correlations of Predata’s Britain In and Britain Out signals to the overall Brexit signal (from today back to the February 20 announcement of the referendum date). The score is not a prediction or a probability level of Britain voting to stay in or leave the EU; it is a measure of each campaign’s correlation to online interest in Brexit as a whole, which can be used as a rough guide to which side is dominating, from day to day, the digital campaign. As such, the scores together do not need to sum to 100%.
 
For more information on our Brexit signals and analysis, contact Aaron Timms at aaron@predata.com.