A Look at the Wild Card Races in MLB
The American League and National League races to the finish are wild, to say the least
A look at the American League race and my favorite team
The MLB postseason is close if we’re already talking about wild-card standings. I’ve been following the races very closely, especially in the American League, as my favorite team, the Toronto Blue Jays, is fighting for their playoff lives at this point.
I wrote an article before the pivotal four-game Texas Rangers series in Toronto. The Jays had a 1.5-game lead with a chance to close the door on Texas staying in the race. What happened after? The Rangers demolished the Jays in Toronto all four games by a combined 35–9. It made the Wild Card Race in the American League much more interesting than it needed to be going down the stretch.
Luckily, the Jays have won five games in a row against the Red Sox and Yankees since and are one game ahead (85–67) of both the Mariners and Rangers (84–68) for the second wild-card spot again. They would need one or both teams to falter to ensure a wild-card spot in the end.
Those two teams are also in a tight race, only 1/2 a game back of the Houston Astros for the division lead, so we could be talking about anyone winning the American League West and the playoff seeding being in a completely different order when all is said and done.
Another thing to note is that the Minnesota Twins' magic number to clinch their division race is one game. They are 81–72, the Guardians are 72–81, and the Tigers are 71–81. That means they will either the Guardians or ore win. This is by far the worst division in baseball by record but the Twins will still have certainly earned one of the automatic spots by winning that division, regardless.
Technically, despite being eight games behind the Mariners and Rangers currently, the New York Yankees are still mathematically alive but unlikely to make the postseason, especially if the Jays shut the door on them in the final game of the series in the Bronx tomorrow.
The Orioles and the Rays in the American League East are the only two teams who have technically clinched their playoff spots already. It is yet to be determined which one of these teams will win the division and both have led it at some point in the season.
A look at the wild National League playoff race
The Braves (97–55) and Dodgers (93–58) are both in by clinching their divisions relatively early and both have large division leads. After that, the entirety of the National League playoff picture is still very unclear.
It seems that the Milwaukee Brewers (86–66) will clinch the National League Central at some point but they are seven games ahead of the Chicago Cubs (79–73) who themselves are jockeying for position among a sea of teams trying to make the playoffs. They are currently in the third wild-card spot based on record by a half-game ahead of the Miami Marlins (79–74). They had faltered as of late, losing seven of their last ten, but I can still see them clinch down the stretch.
The Philadelphia Phillies (83–69) are currently in control of their own destiny, being in the driver’s seat for the first wild-card spot and unlikely to move from there since they are well ahead and also since the Braves already clinched the National League East. Unless they face a massive collapse in the last stretch of games, the Phillies should be in one of the wild-card positions at the end of the season, if not the first one.
After that, the second wild-card spot is currently occupied by the Arizona Diamondbacks (81–72). Other teams mathematically in the hunt for the remaining spots at the moment are the Cincinnati Reds (79–75), and the San Francisco Giants (76–76). The San Diego Padres (75–78), Pittsburgh Pirates (71–81), and the New York Mets (71–81) are still in it but hanging on by a thread.
Their chances are slim to none, and they aren’t technically eliminated mathematically. Still, it’s only a matter of time, given the logjam just ahead of them and their already being so far back. The playoff likelihood for all three teams is less than 1% in the season.
Thoughts on the final stretch of games and some predictions
On the division races, still too close to call, I think the Houston Astros will narrowly beat out one of the two teams they’re currently ahead of. The team likely to suffer a major setback down the stretch is the Seattle Mariners. I can definitely see my Toronto Blue Jays getting it together for the last ten games of the season and securing one of the playoff spots, either the second or third wild-card spot.
I’m also calling the American League East for the Baltimore Orioles. Given that the Jays still have six games against the Rays and are in a tight race themselves, they will likely knock Tampa out of contention for the division that the Orioles currently lead by 2.5 games.
My prediction for the National League is that Milwaukee will hold its lead over the Cubs and the champions, giving them a first-round matchup against the third wild-card team. That team will likely be the Cubs. I also think that the Arizona Diamondbacks will hold on to the second wild-card spot.
The Reds, Marlins, and Giants will miss out on any of the spots and will be left on the outside looking in. I could be way off-base, and one of those teams could sneak past one of my picks, but I’m pretty confident with all of my selections, and I’m just excited and looking forward to playoff baseball. What are your thoughts on my picks, and who would you put in here instead?
