Future MLB Relocation, Expansion, and Realignment
There have been multiple changes in Major League Baseball that have made relocation, expansion, and realignment significantly more likely in the past few years (universal DH, MLB TV, the desire for a further increased revenue in the form of expansion fees after COVID, low attendance in several markets, etc.). Expansion seems to be trending towards 32 teams in line with the NFL and the NHL.
Who could relocate and why?
Oakland A’s
I’ll start with a near-certain team to relocate the Oakland A’s. The A’s have had extremely low attendance over the years and already in the still young 2022 season, they have had two games with an attendance of under 4,000 despite having four straight winning seasons with three playoff berths in those four seasons. This is due to a constantly changing cast of players and a horrific stadium which is the last of the cookie-cutter multi-purpose stadiums which are better suited for football than baseball.
The Oakland Coliseum has had multiple sewage leaks over the years as it has decayed. The A’s organization drastically cut an already low payroll to under $40,000,000 which is among the smallest in baseball despite being in baseball’s sixth-largest market.
The only way to fix the attendance and payroll issues appears to be a new stadium whether in Oakland or somewhere else. The City of Oakland and the team have failed to come to an agreement on a new stadium and the team appears to want to drive the fans away to try and force MLB to allow them to relocate to Las Vegas in the near future.
Tampa Bay Rays
Another team with extremely low attendance over the years despite frequently making the postseason. The Rays' situation seems to be a lot easier to fix than the A’s as the Rays' situation seems more fixable given the circumstances. All the Rays likely have to do to increase attendance is to get a stadium in Tampa Bay rather than 45 minutes away in Saint Petersburg.
Also, Tropicana Field is universally regarded to be one of the worst stadiums in baseball along with Oakland. Seem unlikely to move before their 2027 lease at Tropicana Field is up so they will stay in Tampa for this article. If that falls through the Rays have also been considering relocating to Montreal or the ridiculous suggestion of splitting games between Tampa and Montreal.
Cincinnati Reds
Baseball’s oldest franchise is unlikely to relocate in the near future but I am including them only because Reds president Phil Castellini saying it would be more profitable to move it somewhere else. They would have a natural relocation spot relatively close in Louisville.
Miami Marlins
Chronically low attendance means they could relocate in the future but with Marlins Park being only ten years old relocation is unlikely for now. Prime candidate to relocate down the line. Would have a natural relocation site relatively close in Orlando.
What cities could get teams
I will only consider North American and Caribbean cities in this exercise simply because I feel it is impractical to have a team several time zones away from the rest of the MLB.
Cities that won’t get teams
Here will be some cities that have significant weaknesses that make it extremely unlikely they will get an expansion or relocated team.
Too small: Hamilton, Billings, Boise, Albuquerque, El Paso, Fargo, Birmingham, Buffalo, Little Rock, Wichita.
Not enough perceived interest: Nassau, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa.
Too close to another team: Tijuana, Tucson, Fresno, San Jose, Sacramento, Columbus, Orlando, Hartford, Providence, Virginia Beach.
Political restrictions: Havana.
Maybe if baseball expands further in the future: Monterrey, San Juan, Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, Austin, San Antonio, Omaha, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Memphis, Raleigh.
Possible cities for teams
Mexico City
Pros: Largest city in North America, capital city of a country with a strong passion for baseball, would expand to a new country.
Cons: City with a high crime rate, 750 miles from the nearest team, would expand to a new country (travel issues).
Montreal
Pros: Good baseball tradition, large market.
Cons: Already lost their previous MLB team because they could not agree to build a new stadium.
Vancouver
Pros: Would give Seattle a team close to them, a large market.
Cons: Residents seem skeptical, and may be too close to Seattle.
Portland
Pros: Narrowing down a ballpark option, a strong baseball tradition, would give Seattle a travel partner.
Cons: Not an enormous market, did not support their minor league team
New Orleans
Pros: Vibrant city sure to attract tourists to the park, has supported the Saints even through tough times.
Cons: Hurricanes could easily force the team to relocate for the season, minor league team recently relocated to Wichita which shows low support.
Nashville
Pros: Have an ownership group and possible name in place, AAA park could be expanded to MLB size, no other teams especially close, tourist hotspot.
Cons: Braves are well entrenched among fans in Nashville and many may not switch to support Nashville.
Louisville
Pros: Strong baseball tradition (Louisville Slugger), no other pro sports teams.
Cons: May be too close to Cincinnati (could be an option for the Reds in the future), may be more of a college town.
Charlotte
Pros: Strong sports market, second-largest market without an MLB team, no other teams very close to them.
Cons: Not strong support for a team among residents as of now.
Who will get the teams?
Las Vegas: Will gain the A’s through relocation very soon and this seems almost certain now.
Charlotte: The Southeast is a very underrepresented market and the city is rapidly growing both in sports teams and in population would be named the Knights after the Minor League team.
Nashville: Was down to them and Charlotte for the 32nd franchise but I chose Nashville as they have a prospective ownership group and team name (Stars).
How many divisions?
The main contenders would be 8 divisions of 4 teams each and 4 divisions of 8 teams each.
8 divisions
Pros: Smaller divisions could be more compact, would allow division rivals to play more times per season, could allow more interleague games
Cons: Schedule would be extremely imbalanced within the league, could have some really weak division winners
4 Divisions
Pros: Would allow schedules within the league to be more balanced, would not be very weak division winners, would naturally work with 12 team postseasons (all 4 division winners would get byes), players suggested this realignment during the lockout so it would get their support
Cons: Division rivals would not play as much, interleague play may have to be reduced again (will be increased in 2023).
I feel 4 divisions (2 in each league) is a significantly better model for the future of MLB as this would allow a more balanced schedule which is even more important now with added wild card spots as well as maintaining the tradition and importance of the pennant race by having all division winners earn a first-round bye.
The schedule would be as follows
12 vs 7 division rivals (84 games)
6 vs 8 inter-division teams (48 games)
3 vs 8 teams in one division in the opposite league (24 games)
6 games vs 1 natural rival (6 games)
The 6 games vs a natural rival would still be played in addition to a possible 3 game series if their division matchup is up in the rotation.
Division alignment
AL East
Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Charlotte Knights, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
AL West
Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Las Vegas A’s, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
NL East
Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Nashville Stars, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Saint Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
Now for the interleague rivals
- Orioles-Nationals
- Guardians-Reds
- Knights-Stars
- Yankees-Mets
- Rays-Marlins
- Angels-Dodgers
- Royals-Cardinals
- Twins-Brewers
- Cubs-White Sox
- A’s-Padres
- Tigers-Pirates
- Red Sox-Phillies
- Blue Jays-Braves
- Mariners-Giants
- Astros-Diamondbacks
- Rangers-Rockies
What do you guys think? Hit me up in the comment section or on Twitter. https://twitter.com/nathanjm000?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
