Ranking Every MLB Playoff Team In Several Crucial Metrics

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The modern MLB postseason is modern baseball taken to the extreme. Home runs, bullpens, and top end pitching talent has a huge influence in the regular season but in the postseason those three things determine nearly everything. I will rank all 12 postseason teams in five categories, number of home runs hit, bullpen ERA, ERA for the top seven pitchers (four starters, three relievers), home run differential, and strikeout to walk ratio.

Home Runs Hit

Baseball is now a three true outcomes game (strikeouts, walks, home runs) and the postseason takes this to the extreme and you virtually need at least one homer to win. There were 37 postseason games last year and in 35 of them the winner hit at least one home run.

The Rankings

1. Yankees 254
2. Braves 243
3. Astros 214
4. Dodgers 212
5. Phillies 205
6. Blue Jays 200

7.5 Mariners 197

7.5 Cardinals 197

9. Mets 171

10. Padres 153

11. Rays 139

12. Guardians 127

Bullpen ERA

Bullpens are more important than ever as the times through the order penalty (batters improve the more times they face a pitcher in a game) has been well documented. Pitchers threw around five innings per start in the 2022 regular season similar to 2021 but last postseason innings per start dips to about four innings so bullpens have an even greater role.

The Rankings

1. Astros 2.80
2. Dodgers 2.87
3. Yankees 2.97
4. Braves 3.03
5. Guardians 3.05
6. Mariners 3.32
7. Rays 3.35
8. Mets 3.55
9. Cardinals 3.61
10. Blue Jays 3.77
11. Padres 3.83
12. Phillies 4.27

Top Seven Pitchers ERA

With the decline in pitchers pitching deep into games bullpens have taken center stage but that doesn’t mean starters are throwing fewer playoff innings, they are just throwing them differently. We have seen more and more starting pitchers going in relief and the top starters and relievers are taking up almost all of the playoff innings. The 2019 Nationals did this the best of anyone basically winning the World Series with seven pitchers.

The Rankings

1. Dodgers 2.31
2. Astros 2.58
3. Mets 2.90
4. Rays 2.96
5. Guardians 3.03

6.5 Braves 3.06

6.5 Cardinals 3.06

8. Mariners 3.10

9. Blue Jays 3.25

10. Yankees 3.30

11. Padres 3.50

12. Phillies 3.59

Home Run Differential

This may be the most important stat in modern playoff baseball as stringing hits together becomes even more difficult than in the regular season as the best pitchers on the best teams are throwing the vast majority of the innings. Teams that outhomered their opponents went 25–2 in last year’s playoffs.

The Rankings

1. Yankees +97
2. Braves +95
3. Astros +80
4. Dodgers +60
5. Phillies +55
6. Cardinals +51
7. Blue Jays +20
8. Mariners +11
9. Mets +2
10. Padres -20
11. Rays -33
12. Guardians -45

Strikeout To Walk Ratio

The other two true outcomes are strikeouts and walks. Having a high strikeout rate makes it less likely that teams can string hits together against you, while a low walk rate means there will not be as many multi run homers which can really damage your chances of winning.

The Rankings

1. Mets 3.66

2.5 Dodgers 3.60

2.5 Rays 3.60

4. Astros 3.33

5. Yankees 3.29

6. Blue Jays 3.28

7. Guardians 3.20

8.5 Braves 3.11

8.5 Mariners 3.11

10. Padres 3.10

11. Phillies 3.07

12. Cardinals 2.41

Overall Team Rankings

This is adding up each teams ranking in all five categories and ranking them in the “Postseason Skill Index” I created. A lower score means you are better equipped for the postseason.

Team Rankings

1. Astros 13
2. Dodgers 13.5
3. Yankees 20
4. Braves 23
5. Mets 30
6. Rays 35.5

7.5 Blue Jays 38

7.5 Mariners 38

9.5 Cardinals 41

9.5 Guardians 41

11. Phillies 45

12. Padres 52

My Playoff Predictions

I did these predictions before I even thought about writing this article but I have the higher ranked team in my Postseason Skill Index winning eight of the ten series (Blue Jays, Mariners is tied) and my two series that don’t agree with the index there are easy explanations that the index does not take into account.

Guardians over Rays- Guardians do not need to use fourth starter Zach Plesac in their best of three series which would likely make the Guardians rank a lot better.

Braves over Dodgers- The Dodgers have three lefty starters and the righty in their rotation will not be fully stretched out (if that matters in the modern playoffs) and the Braves have the third best OPS (.782) against lefties as well as the best overall record in baseball since June 1st (78–34) a half game better than the Dodgers (78–35).