The Sun Sets Early on Phoenix:Story of The Series
The Phoenix Suns are the first team to be eliminated from the 2024 NBA playoffs, while the Timberwolves are the first to advance to the conference Semi-finals
Some outcomes, as obvious and sensible as they may be, can still surprise you nonetheless.
A couple days ago I wrote an article where I lambasted the Phoenix Suns and teams like them that bet solely on starpower and offensive dynamos to take them to the promised land. In that article I made my position clear: a team like the Suns has no real chance at winning a championship. It’s not enough to be able to score, especially today when the NBA is stuffed to the brim with talents who can go out and drop 30 points or more on any given night. No matter how deeply we fall in love with rim-shaking dunks, long range three pointers, or fancy footwork en route to a basket, the fact remains that if you can’t get stops on the defensive end, your chances of winning a title are slim to none.
Still, it made me pause when I realized the Suns had been swept by the Timberwolves. Not least because they have one of the greatest players of all time in Kevin Durant, who is still every bit as lethal as he’s always been. His co-star Devin Booker has been no slouch either, and if he keeps up this trajectory he will definitely be one of the best in the league for years to come. Even Bradley Beal, despite not being as good as he was in his Washington days is still more than serviceable. Yet even when Durant and Booker combine for an eye-watering 82 points between them, they were still unable to take a game off Minnesota.
The golden rule has been proven once more.
I haven’t viewed this team as a genuine contender since 2022. I don’t say that to be nasty or so I can say ‘I told you so.’ Like so many teams that hit a wall, the Suns tried to make changes in hopes of getting a different result. The pitfall they stumbled into, like many teams however, is that instead of keeping the essential parts of a winning formula, they cast it out altogether in favour of an alternative that has repeatedly shown to be ineffective. Because shooting the opposing team out of a game is a formula that is unreliable at best, and unsustainable always. Don’t believe me?
Look at these graphs.
Notice a pattern?
These graphs, as created by ESPN, show the pace of each of the four games between the Timberwolves and Suns in order from 1 to 4. In each of the first three games there is a clear trend: Phoenix initially comes out strong and looks like they’re going to give Minnesota a run for their money. But the moment halftime and the third quarter comes around, the Suns seem to run out of steam, leading to Minnesota coming back and opening up a sizeable gap on their way to the final buzzer. Game 4 was the only exception, with Phoenix racing neck-and-neck all the way to the bitter end. It’s not hard to explain this drop-off. When both teams are full of energy, the offensive stars on Phoenix can put on dazzling displays. But with every stepback to create distance, or crossover combo to break down a defender, that exertion of effort drains a player. The better a defense is, the more energy one has to exert to get past them. In the case of Phoenix, not only did this make it harder to score buckets as the game went on, but it made them more prone to giving up points when it was their turn to hunker down and get stops.
The story of this series is analogous to a marathoner racing cross country against a sprinter. Initially the sprinter gets off to a hot start, seemingly primed to leave their opponent in the dust. But the stamina of the marathoner keeps them within range just long enough. As the sprinter starts running out of gas, the marathoner starts gaining ground, until it’s firmly in front of their opponent as they reach the final sprint. Alas for the faster entrant, they don’t have enough left to make one last surge, leading to a loss.
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Where does Phoenix go from here? Do your see the Timberwolves going further in the playoffs or will they be stopped in the second round? Share all your thoughts in the comments. And if you enjoyed this article, please support the Press Box by sharing it across your socials. Thank you, take care, and stay blessed!
