Week 16 (2023) NFL Power Rankings
The Sturg breaks down the playoff picture and ranks the teams after some exciting finishes on Christmas Weekend
There are two weeks left in the NFL regular season. We just witnessed some shocking upsets and another surprisingly competitive game on Christmas Day. The race to the postseason is more convoluted than ever. There are still only two out of the eight division races already locked up.
Along with that, there is a logjam of teams around .500 that are fighting for their spot in January to play for the Super Bowl. I was 3–3 this week with my picks.
I picked the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bengals incorrectly but I did correctly pick the Rams, Bills, and Eagles in their games. I will make my Week 17 picks at the end. Let’s go on and see how I’ve ranked the teams this week.
I had a hard time ordering the 8–7 teams since so many complicated tiebreakers are involved in figuring out who would go where. I ended up going with a recency bias and put some teams that lost to other teams ahead of them in this group since I’m going off of more recent play rather than how they matched up with the other teams on that tier. With that being said, here we go.
Elite (1–10)
1. Baltimore Ravens (12–3): The Ravens have been flirting with taking over the top spot all year long. They finally took it for themselves on a Christmas Day matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara. What we were all thinking could be a Super Bowl preview did not disappoint. The defense forced five interceptions and showed why they are now the best team in the league. In the 33–19 win, Lamar Jackson threw for over 250 yards and two touchdowns.
2. Detroit Lions (11–4): The Detroit Lions won an important divisional game against the Minnesota Vikings 30–24. Their defense forced four Nick Mullens interceptions. The run defense was spectacular and their own running game got it going with three touchdowns. They have clinched the NFC North for the first time since the division was created. This is a huge win for the city of Detroit and the long-suffering Lions fans.
3. San Francisco 49ers (11–4): Where do I start? The MVP conversation for Brock Purdy is definitely not as lively as it was before this game. He threw four interceptions in the game and was on pace to throw more. They probably should’ve leaned on McCaffrey’s running ability more as he’s seeming to emerge as the team’s most valuable player. An injury in the fourth quarter brought in Sam Darnold and he brought a little life to the offense. The defense couldn’t really stop Lamar Jackson and they just couldn’t overcome the five turnovers.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (11–4): The Eagles escaped some sloppy second-half play after being ahead 20–3 at halftime. The turnovers continue to be a problem for this team and they definitely don’t look nearly as good as they did last year. The fourth quarter saved it for Jalen Hurts but they definitely made it interesting in the 33–25 win over the Giants. A key takeaway from this game is that they should utilize D’Andre Swift more.
5. Miami Dolphins (11–4): There was plenty of drama in the 22–20 win over the Cowboys. The refs could be blamed for some of it but Miami narrowly escaped with a home win. Tua threw for 293 yards and a touchdown. Tyreek Hill continues to lead the NFL in receiving yards with 1,641 this season. He had 99 yards this game. Jason Sanders won the game with a last-second field goal.
6. Cleveland Browns (10–5): Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. He also threw for two interceptions. Most of his yards went to Amari Cooper who had a monster game with 11 catches, 265 yards, and two touchdowns. The fact that a quarterback who everybody thought was washed up is likely leading the Browns into the postseason should be a bigger story. With all the injuries this year, it’s amazing to watch this unfold. The defense has truly helped a ton as well. In the 36–22 win over the Texans in Houston, they forced two interceptions and only allowed 250 yards.
7. Dallas Cowboys (10–5): Dallas has now lost two games in a row and has fallen out of a tie for the NFC East. They lost in a nail-biter to another top-tier team and even though they have clinched the postseason already need to improve to be taken seriously come playoff time. CeeDee Lamb had a large portion of the offense from Dak Prescott with 118 yards and a touchdown in the loss to Miami.
8. Buffalo Bills (9–6): The Bills escaped Los Angeles with a win. They made beating the Chargers look difficult and I thought that would be impossible to do. A win is a win though and they are still fighting to get into the postseason. Don’t look now but this team has won three games in a row. They even still have a shot at the division title as they meet Miami in Week 18. In the 24–22 win over the Chargers, Josh Allen threw for 237 yards and a touchdown along with an interception. He also scored two touchdowns on the ground. They ultimately won on a Tyler Bass field goal.
9. Kansas City Chiefs (9–6): The Chiefs lost ugly in a game against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16. In the 20–14 loss at home, they turned the ball over twice and gave up 145 rushing yards to Zamir White. They outgained the Raiders 308–205 and played good defense against the pass, limiting rookie Aidan O’Connell to just 62 yards passing. They got sacked four times in the game. And they still haven’t clinched the AFC West, leaving the door open for the Raiders to sneak into the postseason.
10. Los Angeles Rams (8–7): The Rams have won two games in a row and have taken control of their own destiny at this point. They would currently be the 6th seed right now and are playing well enough to look like a playoff team. In the 30–22 win over the Saints on Thursday Night, they outgained the Saints 458–339. Kyren Williams again rushed over 100 yards and had a rushing touchdown. Puka Nacua lit up the Saints' defense for 180 total yards and a touchdown. I would be surprised at this point if the Rams don’t make the postseason.
Mid-Tier (11–20)
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–7): The Buccaneers have won four games in a row to take control of the NFC South. The great news is that their two remaining games are against the weak division and they have a chance to clinch it if they win out. Their next two games are against the Saints and Panthers. In the 30–12 win over fellow division leader, the Jacksonville Jaguars, they forced four turnovers. Baker Mayfield had 283 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Mike Evans was the recipient of both touchdown passes.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (8–7): I guess one win can feel like it’s possible to right the ship for this previously sinking team. They climbed out of the AFC North cellar with a huge win over their division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals. They forced three interceptions in the 34–11 win. Mason Rudolph had a clean game throwing for 290 yards and two touchdowns. Najee Harris had 78 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (8–7): Jake Browning finally played a terrible game with three interceptions in the loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. He was also sacked three times. He did manage 335 passing yards. Tee Higgins had the only touchdown for the Bengals to go along with 140 receiving yards. Their defense let them down this game and couldn’t force any Pittsburgh turnovers.
14. Seattle Seahawks (8–7): Two straight wins and this team is currently in the seventh seed in the NFC. They defeated the Titans 20–17 and Geno Smith was back in at quarterback. He ultimately led them to the game-winning drive with a 5-yard pass to Colby Parkinson. Their defense had trouble stopping the running game but they escaped with a road win anyway.
15. Houston Texans (8–7): It was hard to order the three AFC South teams. Even though the Texans are currently the third team in terms of actual order in the division, I feel like they might have the best path to win the division. Even after a loss to the Browns and having to start Case Keenum and then go with Davis Mills, they still look like a team that could contend especially with the possibility of rookie CJ Stroud coming back from concussion protocol in Week 17.
16. Indianapolis Colts (8–7): This Colts team is really confusing right now. One week, they will look spectacular and the next week, they look like the team they looked like in Week 16 against the Atlanta Falcons. In the 29–10 loss, they turned the ball over once and Gardner Minshew II was sacked six times. He threw for 201 yards and an interception. To be fair, they don’t have Michael Pittman, Jr. due to a concussion injury but they shouldn’t look this bad to a team led by Taylor Heinicke.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (8–7): A four-game losing streak and the seeming want to want to play away their division has moved them all the way down to 17th on this list at this point. Trevor Lawrence is clearly not healthy and injured himself again in this game. CJ Beathard is not the answer at quarterback. Turning the ball over four times in the loss to the Buccaneers isn’t going to cut it in any game. This team is not going to win this division, especially if Trevor Lawrence misses any time due to the shoulder injury.
18. Atlanta Falcons (7–8): Taylor Heinicke had 229 yards and a touchdown pass in the 29–10 win over the Indianapolis Colts. They had 177 yards on the ground anchored by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The rookie, Robinson, also led the receiving corps with 50 yards through the air. This team is still in contention for the NFC South despite being under .500 but they will need some help.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (7–8): Can you believe that this Raiders team is still in the conversation for the division this late in the season? They just beat the Chiefs 20–14 and could be sneaky good. Their quarterback play isn’t doing them any favors but their running game and defense should definitely be noticed. I don’t actually think they’ll win the AFC West as I believe the Chiefs will take the division and figure it out. Josh Jacobs was out this game but Zamir White stepped up nicely.
20. Denver Broncos (7–8): A huge loss to the New England Patriots, of all teams, dents their playoff hopes at this point. They are currently 12th in the AFC and would need a ton of help at this point. The first year under Sean Payton is an improvement over last year but they still have a way to go. In the loss to the Patriots, they lost two fumbles, and could only manage 276 yards. They also allowed five sacks on Russell Wilson. Even though he didn’t throw an interception and had two touchdowns along with 236 passing yards, that’s not a winning formula. They earned every bit of that 26–23 loss to the Patriots in Denver.
The Caboose (21–32)
21. Green Bay Packers (7–8): The Packers definitely benefitted from a questionable catch call in the 33–30 win over the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte. They were also outgained 394–369 in the close win. They won on an Anders Carlson 32-yard field goal with seconds left. Jordan Love had 219 yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Jones rushed for 127 yards in the win.
22. Minnesota Vikings (7–8): Two losses in a row will change the playoff hopes for this team. Nick Mullens throwing four interceptions in the loss didn’t help. He did manage to throw for 411 yards and two touchdowns and benefitted from having a healthy Justin Jefferson back in the lineup. They just didn’t do enough on the ground to defeat the Detroit Lions and will have to play well down the stretch with some help to make the postseason. They are currently in the eighth spot in the NFC, on the outside looking in.
23. New Orleans Saints (7–8): The Saints couldn’t get the running game going in the 30–22 loss to the Rams. Alvin Kamara was held to just 19 yards on the ground. Derek Carr did manage to throw for 319 yards and three touchdowns. He did however have an interception. The team stormed back from 30–7 in the fourth quarter and tried unsuccessfully to mount a comeback through the air.
24. Chicago Bears (6–9): Even at 6–9, the Chicago Bears aren’t eliminated from playoff contention, but you feel like they will be after next week. Either way, they’re playing well right now and got another big win. In the 27–16 win over the Cardinals, they rushed for 250 yards, led by Khalil Herbert’s 112 yards and a touchdown. Justin Fields rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown himself and also threw for 170 yards and a touchdown to go with an interception in the win. They outgained the Cardinals 420–306.
25. New York Jets (6–9): I would thank Breece Hall for the recent win over the Commanders. In the 30–28 win over Washington, he had 95 yards rushing and two touchdowns, through the air, he had 12 catches with 96 yards. Trevor Siemian threw for 217 yards and a touchdown with an interception. They won with 5 seconds left on a Greg Zuerlein 54-yard field goal.
26. New York Giants (5–10): The Giants played the Eagles a lot more competitively than everyone thought they would. They also benched Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito this week after a slow start. Tyrod Taylor brought some life into the offense in the second half as they tried to overcome a 20–3 halftime deficit. In the 33–25 loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia, they were outgained 465–292 but the defense scored a defensive touchdown on a pick-six that momentarily changed the momentum in the game.
27. Tennessee Titans (5–10): The Titans were so close in the loss to the Seahawks at home. Derrick Henry had a good game with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown. He also had 88 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards. It felt like the Derrick Henry show in Nashville this week and that doesn’t always translate to a win. They controlled the clock possessing the ball for over 33 minutes but couldn’t get the last say as they lost on a last-second touchdown pass.
28. Los Angeles Chargers (5–10): The Chargers are another team that lost on a last-second possession to a playoff team right now. They forced three turnovers against the Bills but couldn’t seem to do anything with that. They had plenty of opportunities to win but the ability to win and actually getting it done are two different things. I underestimated Easton Stick a bit but I still don’t think he’s there yet. He had a rushing touchdown in the loss.
29. New England Patriots (4–11): The Patriots won and beat another team fighting for the postseason. It’s admirable how hard they’re playing with Bailey Zappe at quarterback. I don’t think it saves Bill Belichick’s job in Foxboro but it’s nice to see that they can actually win with the available talent. In the 26–23 win, Bailey Zappe threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott had 33 receiving yards and a touchdown to go with 27 rushing yards, which led the team. They also had five sacks on defense, which was the ultimate difference.
30. Washington Commanders (4–11): The Commanders lost to the Jets 30–28. They benched Sam Howell again. Jacoby Brissett looked a bit more competent in the close loss. I’ll commend them for coming back from 20–0 to actually lead 28–27 before the final scoring play. They were outgained 381–245 despite forcing two turnovers themselves. They did commit three turnovers and that was a major difference.
31. Arizona Cardinals (3–12): The Cardinals’ normally effective running game was held to 93 yards against the Bears. Kyler Murray had 230 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions but that wasn’t enough since the defense couldn’t stop the Bears’ running attack. James Conner had 45 rushing yards but also 67 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in the loss to the Bears.
32. Carolina Panthers (2–13): Despite the close loss at home to the Green Bay Packers 33–30, it looked like Bryce Young’s best game as a pro so far. They looked like a team that actually had a chance to beat a decent team but they ultimately fell short. They outgained the Packers 394–369 in the loss. Bryce Young threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. The ground game also managed two touchdowns as well. DJ Chark, Jr. was the recipient of both receiving touchdowns on his way to 98 yards. Unfortunately, they were the recipient of a very questionable call that went against them on a catch that didn’t look like a catch by the Packers’ Romeo Doubs.
The Sturg’s Picks for Week 17: TNF-Browns over Jets, Saturday-Lions over Cowboys, Sunday-49ers over Commanders, Steelers over Seahawks, Chiefs over Bengals, Broncos over Chargers, Packers over Vikings. I was 3–3 in Week 16. Hopefully, by picking in an extra game this week, I can finish over .500 with this week’s picks.
The Current Playoff Spots: AFC-1. Ravens, 2. Dolphins, 3. Chiefs, 4. Jaguars, 5. Browns, 6. Bills, 7. Colts
NFC-1. 49ers, 2. Eagles, 3. Lions, 4. Buccaneers, 5. Cowboys, 6. Rams, 7. Seahawks
Source: NFL Standings
Look to NFL.com, ESPN.com, and Sporting News later in the week to compare my rankings to theirs.
Stay tuned every Tuesday or Wednesday for the last two weeks of the regular season here at the Press Box on Medium for the final regular season power rankings.
