Week 18 Final Regular Season NFL Power Rankings
The regular season has ended and the playoff picture has been set
The regular season has ended and the seeding has been set for both conferences. I’m not surprised by any of the slots. The Steelers and Packers snuck in with late-season surges but that is always possible for these franchises. The Bills winning the AFC East is something I saw coming as their winning streak was happening. They swept the season series 2–0 against the Miami Dolphins including last night’s 21–14 victory. I will give my final thoughts on the season and analyze a few of the things that went right and analyze each game. Let’s get to the rankings.
Elite (1–10)
1. Baltimore Ravens (13–4): Sure, Baltimore lost the final game of the regular season. It was another 17–10 loss to Pittsburgh this season. Pittsburgh surprisingly swept this series this year. The Ravens rested most of their starters and this game allowed the Steelers to get in with the other help they needed. Baltimore is the best team in the league right now but they were also in the best division in football this year. Unpopular opinion: Despite the improved passing numbers from Lamar Jackson, he is NOT the MVP this year.
2. San Francisco 49ers (12–5): The 49ers lost their final game 21–20 to the Los Angeles Rams in a game where both teams rested most of their starters for most of the game. Sam Darnold played for the 49ers. Elijah Mitchell was the starting running back for this game. Christian McCaffrey should be ready to go after the injury when they come back in a couple of weeks. This team showed why they were able to beat most of the top teams they played this season. Christian McCaffrey had 2023 total yards this season and had 21 total touchdowns. He is a legitimate MVP candidate as is his teammate, quarterback Brock Purdy.
3. Dallas Cowboys (12–5): The Cowboys won the NFC East. They are the best team in the division and one of the best in the NFC. This could be their year as they have beaten the Eagles late in the year and escaped against the Lions. They lost to the 49ers earlier in the season but this team is still very dangerous. CeeDee Lamb is a threat in any game. CeeDee led the league this year with 135 catches and was second in receiving yards with 1,749. Dak Prescott is a very good quarterback leading a team that can beat you in so many ways and is another MVP candidate. He finished third in passing yards with 4516. One more shout-out to Daron Bland for setting the single-season record for most pick-sixes in NFL history. They won 38–10 in the final game with the division on the line against the Commanders.
4. Detroit Lions (12–5): The Lions beat the Vikings 30–20 in the final game of the season. They had already won the NFC North but still had a shot at the 2 seed. They didn't get it since the Cowboys also won but they had a great season matching the most wins in franchise history. This team won the same number of games as the 1991 Lions who went 12–4. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St Brown, David Montgomery, and Jahmyr Gibbs have all been a huge part of their offense this season. Jared Goff was second in passing yards this season with 4575. David Montgomery finished the season with 13 rushing touchdowns and also had 1015 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs fell short with 945 yards so the Lions essentially have two backs capable of 1000-yard seasons. That’s a great dilemma to have.
5. Buffalo Bills (11–6): The Bills find themselves in the top 5 to end the season. They ended the season on a five-game winning streak and won the AFC East. They beat the Dolphins 21–14 in the final game of the season. Josh Allen has turned the ball over a ton this season. Allen was second in turnovers by a quarterback this year with 22. He did tie the NFL record with Jalen Hurts with the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 15. The thing about him though is the dual-threat he brings to the game. He also has a 1000-yard rusher as James Cook finished with 1122 yards. This team could be a problem for other teams in the playoffs.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (11–6): For any other team, being the third seed in the playoffs would seem like a great blessing. For the spoiled fans of the Chiefs, this feels like a bit of a disappointing season. Despite winning the division yet again last week, this team’s offense has yet to truly get on track. Their top receiving option this season, Travis Kelce, had 984 yards, just falling short of 1000, and didn’t crack the top 25 in the league. Patrick Mahomes still managed to get over 4000 yards passing this season but it still felt a bit off. They did win a meaningless game to end the season against the Los Angeles Chargers 13–12. The starters rested in this game. The Chiefs still have a shot to turn it on in the playoffs. They do have one home game so they better make it count but I’m not hopeful for them to make it that far this year.
7. Cleveland Browns (11–6): This is the best Browns team I’ve seen in a while. I feel like this team is even better than the one led by Baker Mayfield that stunned the Steelers in the playoffs a few years ago. A 38-year-old Joe Flacco is showing he still has something in the tank. Cleveland was ravaged by injuries this year and started five different players at quarterback. They had also lost their star, Nick Chubb, to an injury early in the season. Amari Cooper was top 10 in the league in receiving this season even though he was also injured for a couple of games. He had 1250 yards this season. This would be a crazy kind of Eagles/Nick Foles situation if they could win the Super Bowl with Joe Flacco. For a team that has never won a Super Bowl, you get the feeling that this team is a dark horse right now to make it far.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (11–6): The Eagles had two 1000-yard receivers this season with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. D’Andre Swift finished the year with 1045 yards rushing. Jalen Hurts tied the rushing touchdown record for a quarterback and this was a very good offense this season when they weren’t turning the ball over. But Jalen Hurts turned the ball over 20 times this season. The defense wasn’t very good at stopping the pass as they made bad teams look good through the air. They lost to the New York Giants 27–10 with the division on the line to fall to the 5 seed in the NFC. This team doesn’t look like one returning to the Super Bowl.
9. Miami Dolphins (11–6): The Dolphins are a curious case. Some weeks they look like the best team in the league and other weeks, they look like they did against the Buffalo Bills. They lost the game and got swept in the season series. That dropped them all the way to the 6th seed in the AFC and they will have to play a road game against the Chiefs next week. I don’t have much hope for this team in the playoffs. They were a good offense in the regular season as Tua Tagovailoa led in passing yards but fell short in completion percentage as the final game doomed his chances. The two interceptions in the final game didn’t help either. Tyreek Hill led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,799 yards in 16 games and tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns with 13. They have a 1000-yard rusher with Raheem Mostert at 1,012 yards.
10. Houston Texans (10–7): The Texans were led out there most of the year by a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud. This rookie turned out to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league in his first year. He was 8th in passing with 4,108 yards despite missing some games with a concussion. He turned a 3 win team around into the AFC South champion in one year. They have a good defense so that helped as well. Nico Collins finished in the top 10 in receiving yards with 1,297. This is going to be a tough team in the playoffs although they may need more work to get far. They beat the Colts 23–19 for the division crown.
Mid-Tier (11–20)
11. Los Angeles Rams (10–7): Congratulations to 5th round rookie Puka Nacua for setting the rookie receiving record. He got the yards he needed as he made four catches in the final game of the season in a 21–20 win over the 49ers. Both teams rested most of their starters but he got the yards he needed in this game. Kyren Williams finished third in the league in rushing yards with 1144 and had 12 rushing touchdowns. Matthew Stafford finished just outside the top 10 in passing this year. This team is still very potent on offense and will be a threat in the playoffs.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7): Pittsburgh snuck into the playoffs with a 17–10 over the Ravens in which the Ravens rested most of their starters. They needed help but they got it. Najee Harris had 1035 yards this season and finished in the top 10 in rushing. Mason Rudolph has been the starter for the last couple of games. Kenny Pickett has struggled this year and their situation at quarterback has been a bit shaky. I like that they made it but I’m not sure about them getting far. George Pickens surprisingly made the top 25 in receiving this year.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9–8): Tampa Bay waited until the very last week to clinch the NFC South, the weakest of all the conferences this year. They did it by beating the last-place Carolina Panthers 9–0. It wasn’t impressive offensively but defensively they got the job done. They look like a weak playoff team. I don’t even know if the fact that they are hosting a playoff game will help. On the bright side, Mike Evans had 1,255 receiving yards and tied the NFL lead with 13 receiving touchdowns. He’s still a threat every game.
14. Green Bay Packers (9–8): A team that looked dead in the water almost a month ago snuck into the playoffs. They beat the Bears 17–9. Jordan Love has played like a franchise quarterback this year. He threw for 4,159 yards and had 32 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He did this despite not having a receiver crack the top 25 in receiving. Aaron Jones had 656 rushing yards in 11 games. Their defense has looked good at times. I don’t know what to think of this team come playoff time. Their quarterback is young and doesn’t have playoff experience yet. We will have to see how Jordan Love handles the pressure.
15. Seattle Seahawks (9–8): I had high hopes for Seattle this year after the surprise reemergence of Geno Smith. Geno Smith was right around the middle of the pack in yards this year with 3,624 passing yards. Kenneth Walker III had 905 yards rushing this year. This team just missed out on the postseason as the Green Bay Packers won. They also won when they beat the Arizona Cardinals as the Cardinals missed a late potential go-ahead field goal. They escaped with a 21–20 win but it was all for naught.
16. New Orleans Saints (9–8): Another team that won in the final week but missed the playoffs. This team had no trouble demolishing the Atlanta Falcons with the NFC South division within their reach. They beat the Falcons 48–17. Derek Carr had 3878 passing yards this year with 25 touchdowns against 8 interceptions. Chris Olave had 1,123 receiving yards to end the season. They have a lot of nice pieces. Maybe they can put it all together next year and win the division.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (9–8): The Bengals beat a Browns team that was resting all of their starters. They beat them 31–14 in a game where Jake Browning was effective. They will have to look forward to next year as Joe Burrow, their franchise quarterback, continues to heal and rehab. JaMarr Chase had another great year with 1,216 yards and 7 touchdowns. Joe Mixon also had a great year with 1,034 yards and 9 touchdowns. This is the first time in the current alignment that a division had all four of their teams finish above .500 and it was nice to see it be the AFC North.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (9–8): The Jaguars were in the driver's seat of this division for most of the year but they collapsed in the second half of the season and gave it away. They lost to the Tennessee Titans 28–20 in a game that I don’t think Trevor Lawrence should’ve tried to play in. He had some injury issues this season and didn’t look as sharp as he should’ve. They lost out on the division and the playoffs altogether with the loss and have to look towards next year. Trevor did finish top 10 in passing with 4,016 yards. Travis Etienne also had 1,008 rushing yards. Calvin Ridley finished with 1,016 receiving yards.
19. Indianapolis Colts (9–8): The AFC South was a three-way race to the end and the Colts fell just short and missed the playoffs with a loss to the Texans. They almost did it but lost 23–19. A look at the year and Michael Pittman, Jr had 1,152 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor finished with 741 yards and 7 touchdowns in 10 games this season. Gardner Minshew had 3305 yards with 15 passing touchdowns against 9 interceptions this year. They should have a healthy Anthony Richardson next year. A full year with Jonathan Taylor should help them too.
20. Las Vegas Raiders (8–9): If only this season could’ve been more consistent for them this year. The Raiders flashed some signs of being a great team this year. They even dropped a franchise-record 63 points this season. They just couldn’t do enough to make the playoffs and play well when it mattered most. They did win a game against the Broncos this week where they looked pretty competent on offense. They won 27–14. Josh Jacobs had 805 yards in 13 games this season. Zamir White also played well this year in his absence. Rookie Aidan McConnell started playing better as the season went along. Davante Adams finished the season with 1,144 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns.
The Caboose (21–32)
21. Denver Broncos (8–9): The Broncos are another disappointing team this year. Sure, they improved over last season but it felt like they gave up when they benched Russell Wilson in favor of Jarrett Stidham at the end of the year. Russell Wilson isn’t what he used to be but he had a solid season and didn’t seem to be the cause of their issues. After all, he finished with 3,070 yards passing. Courtland Sutton had 10 touchdown receptions this season. This team feels like they’re on the upswing, especially now with Sean Payton as coach.
22. New York Jets (7–10): Another 7–10 season for a team with an elite defense. Trevor Siemian or Zach Wilson won’t cut it at quarterback. They should have a healthy Aaron Rodgers next year but he’s already past his prime. Breece Hall broke out to finish the year and had 994 rushing yards to end the season. He was the high point of the offense. Their defense should continue to be solid for years to come. You just feel like this team is so close to contending. Maybe next year. The good news is that they won 17–3 in their final game against the Patriots.
23. Minnesota Vikings (7–10): I’m honestly surprised that the Vikings still had a slim chance to make the postseason in the final week after the slide they had going into the second half of the season. They lost but the bright side is that they had Justin Jefferson back for the second half of the year. Kirk Cousins should come back next year. They need him. Jefferson had 1,074 receiving yards in just 10 games this year. He could’ve had a chance to lead the NFL if he had a full season. They lost to the Lions to finish the season.
24. Chicago Bears (7–10): Chicago couldn’t play spoiler losing to the Packers 17–9 in the final week of the season. They have some things to think about for their future. Do they keep Justin Fields as their franchise quarterback or do they capitalize on their 1st overall pick from Carolina to snag Caleb Williams and move on from him? Justin Fields did lead the team in rushing this year. There are going to be a lot of questions going into next year. They finished the season strong after starting very poorly. This is going to be an exciting team next year whatever they decide. DJ Moore finished with 1,364 yards this year.
25. Atlanta Falcons (7–10): It looks like the team has moved on from Arthur Smith. They wasted no time firing him on Monday after the season concluded and they were blown out by New Orleans. Bijan Robinson had 976 rushing yards this year in a very exciting rookie season. I feel that they’re still underutilizing Kyle Pitts but having Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the passing game. A better coach might unlock this offense. Arthur Smith was probably a large part of the problem for this team this season.
26. New York Giants (6–11): The Giants beat the Eagles. Tyrod Taylor played well enough to help them win. Saquon Barkley closed out the year with two rushing touchdowns. He had 962 rushing yards this season. I’m not sure who their quarterback is next year but it’s definitely not going to be Daniel Jones, who missed most of the year with an injury. This team enjoyed success with quarterback Tommy DeVito at times but he’s not the long-term solution there. Maybe they need to draft a quarterback in the draft this year.
27. Tennessee Titans (6–11): The Titans closed out the season as spoilers. They beat the Jaguars and knocked them out of the AFC South lead and out of the playoffs altogether. Despite a very disappointing season, Derrick Henry had 1,167 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns as he finished near the top with both stats. DeAndre Hopkins finished with 1,057 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. Rookie Will Levis looked good at times. We’ll have to see what a full year healthy for him will look like. This team will likely improve next season depending on the way the injuries go.
28. Los Angeles Chargers (5–12): Justin Herbert went out for the season with a major injury. Their coach was fired late in the season. Easton Stick filled in all right but this team couldn’t overcome a ton of adversity this year. They slid to the bottom of the AFC West by the season’s end, including a loss in a game where the Chiefs didn’t have many starters playing. I don’t have any positives for this team this year. They should get back on track with Herbert coming back from injury next year.
29. Arizona Cardinals (4–13): I felt like this team should’ve been better than they were all year long. They dealt with injuries and inconsistent quarterback play from Joshua Dobbs early in the season. Kyler Murray came back from injury and improved as the season went on. They barely lost their final game to Seattle. James Conner had an impressive year on the ground with 1,040 yards rushing. This team will be better next year.
30. New England Patriots (4–13): My prediction is that Bill Belichick will no longer be the coach of the Patriots going into next year. He’ll likely be a major target for any team that needs a veteran and proven coach. Neither Mac Jones nor Bailey Zappe will be the quarterback for them next year. They might draft a quarterback. Their defense was decent and played well but they had a terrible offense. I don’t even want to highlight any players from this offense this year. I hope they’ll be okay but I have a feeling they have a long-term issue on offense.
31. Washington Commanders (4–13): Ron Rivera has officially been fired as the coach of the Commanders. The team was just terrible this year. They lost the final game to the Cowboys as they watched them clinch the division. Sam Howell had 3,946 passing yards this year but led the league with 22 turnovers. He might still be the starter next season but they could also draft a quarterback. Their defense was absolutely terrible this year.
32. Carolina Panthers (2–15): My favorite team turned out to be the worst team in the NFL this year. They got shut out to end the season with the chance of spoiling the NFC South result. Some positives are that Chuba Hubbard emerged as a legitimate lead back with 902 rushing yards. A 33-year-old Adam Thielen had over 1000 yards this season too. The rookie, Bryce Young, was sacked a ton and had a number of turnovers. He finished the year with under 3,000 yards passing. This team needs a new coach and more weapons and protection for their young quarterback.
You can check out ESPN, Sporting News, and NFL.com to compare my rankings with theirs.
I was 8–3 in my picks from last week. I am going to predict the playoff matchups and check in next week.
Bills over Steelers
Chiefs over Dolphins
Browns over Texans
Cowboys over Packers
Lions over Rams
Eagles over Buccaneers
Sources: NFL Standings, NFL Stats
