2020 Update: What’s Next for the Candidates
With the upcoming presidential elections almost arriving, the Democratic candidate polls are more active than ever. Through unforeseen surges and declines, impeachment debates, and ever-changing funding, and polls — the wide variety and high number of candidates have experienced it all. In taking a look at the most recent 2020 data for not just Democrats, but for President Trump himself, it becomes increasingly clear that the results of the 2020 election are less than predictable.
In CNN’s most recent poll, former Vice President Joe Biden is a clear frontrunner, with 34% of voters supporting him as the primary candidate. After being attacked repeatedly by President Donald Trump for allegations about his son’s business, polling networks were unsure of what voters would feel towards Biden. However, being put under the scrutiny of spotlight has been more of a blessing than a curse for the candidate: his support has spiked the most notably out of any candidate, surging from 24% just last month. This is Biden’s best polling since his candidacy announcement, despite the fact that his performance in the most recent debates has not been very well received by voters (only 15% of respondents said that he was the best one onstage.)
Elizabeth Warren performed outstandingly at the last Democratic debate, and 28% of respondents who watched or followed the debate responded by saying that she had done the best job. In a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, Warren is the 2020 frontrunner. This poll has her seven points ahead of CNN’s frontrunner, Biden, and while this poll seems to be an outlier from many other major news outlets’ polls, it certainly has people talking: MSNBC, CNN, CBS, and The Washington Post have all been writing about these unexpected results. Nevertheless, according to CNN, only 38% of Democrats registered to vote have a “favorable opinion” of Warren, while 74% reported to have one of her greatest competitor, Joe Biden.
After Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack on October 3rd, rumors of his dropping out spread among countless news platforms. But it doesn’t look like Sanders plans on dropping any time soon: according to the New York Times, he told his staff members that he feels “more strongly about the need for a political revolution today than I did when I began this campaign.” His polling increased to 21% according to CNN after his heart attack, but change is in the air as he finds himself “in a close race [with Warren] among likely voters in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary.”
South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has received more support than he has in the past, and now is unarguably a top four candidate for 2020, with polling from 6–10% in different polls and news organizations ranging from CNN to USAToday. In a new Politico poll, “when asked whether they thought the country was ready for an openly gay president, 40 percent [of respondents] said they thought the country was ready, with 45 percent saying the country was not ready.” While it would be revolutionary for the country to have its first openly gay President, it seems that the polls are fluctuating on the potential of his success.
A new CNN poll analysis draws the comparison between Biden and Sanders, who “do their best in the primary among voters who say they are certain of their vote choice, while Warren voters are much more likely to say they may change their mind.” But currently, Donald Trump is trailing behind each of the polled potential Democratic nominees by at least 82 points, which visibly follows the pattern from the 2018 election, when Democrats gained control over the house, more than it follows the 2016 Presidential election.
In terms of enthusiasm, according to the aforementioned poll, the percentage of respondents who reported that they would be enthusiasm with Biden, Sanders, or Warren nominee is about the same (in fact, it’s slightly higher) than the percentage of Democrats who reported enthusiasm for the potential nominees at this point in the 2008 and 2016 cycles. Election enthusiasm in general is ramping up — 47% of all voters say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting in next year’s presidential election.
Other candidates, while they have gained less traction Biden, Sanders, Warren, or Buttigieg, have seen an influx of support as well. In fact, Amy Klobuchar has recently had one qualifying poll: after having seen a CNN 3%, she will take the stage for the next Presidential debate. Since the most recent debate, she’s seen a boom in fundraising and a tiny surge in the polls.
In all of the recent CNN polls, the results are similar to previous polls of likely caucusgoers in Iowa: Biden and Sanders take a clear lead, with Warren falling behind due to those who are uncertain of her potential success as a candidate. It seems that while Democrats are unclear of who the nominee will be, one thing is clear: the 2020 elections will be one for the history books.
