A Beto Future
Beto O’Rourke’s impact in Texas
By John Lin
The Progressive Teen Staff Writer
A STRANGE PHENOMENON HAS SWEPT ACROSS SUBURBAN LAWNS THROUGHOUT TEXAS. Black and white signs reading “BETO” have appeared everywhere, including in precincts that voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2016. Beto-mania is very real — and very unusual. Recent elections have seen Democrats struggling to amass even 40 percent of the vote, even pro-choice star Wendy Davis in the 2014 gubernatorial election. Even Barack Obama lost state-wide by double digits in 2008. Many Democrats worry that this is the fate that lies in store for Beto on November 6. Polls seem to agree with these concerns, with the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll showing Ted Cruz ahead of Beto O’Rourke by a 51% to 45% margin. FiveThirtyEight predicts that O’Rourke will lose by roughly 5 percentage points. But the fact that O’Rourke has made the U.S. Senate race competitive is in and of itself remarkable.
These statistics mask a significant shift in public opinion: O’Rourke won independent voters by a 12 percent margin in the UT/TT Poll. This contrasts sharply with other Democrats because Texas Independents generally favor Republicans. O’Rourke’s success is especially shocking given his unabashed progressivism in a state as red as Texas, showing that Democrats have a shot at turning Texas purple by shifting towards the left. Moreover, O’Rourke was unknown to most Texans before announcing his candidacy for the Senate in March 2017. As a representative from El Paso, located in the far western corner of Texas, he rarely sparked the interest of the approximately 20 million inhabitants of the Texas Triangle, a megaregion that includes the state’s five biggest cities — Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, and Fort Worth — comprising around 70% of its population according to U.S. Census figures. O’Rourke’s poll numbers show that through ideological strength, politicians with low voter recognition from far-flung areas can still capture key nominations and seats.
O’Rourke, however, cannot win on the strength of independents and moderates alone. His targeted base includes urban liberals and people of color throughout Texas. The Democratic coalition in Texas is even more diverse than the state’s population, which currently stands at around 42% White, 40% Hispanic, 13% Black, and 5% Asian. Each demographic has different cultures, motivations, and voting patterns, resulting in varying levels of turnout and disappointing statewide results for Democrats. For instance, only 41% of Hispanic eligible voters turned out in the 2016 presidential election. O’Rourke, however, has the potential to change this concerning trend. His appeal to Hispanic voters includes his knowledge of Spanish and his commitment to serving Latinx communities by representing El Paso on its City Council and in the U.S. House. Most importantly for the Democratic coalition, he’s only voted with the president on around 29% of issues, according to FiveThirtyEight. Even further, he has voiced support for impeaching Trump if elected. His firm opposition to Trump’s antagonistic rhetoric could unite this disparate band of liberals and bring in anti-Trump moderates.
In this election cycle, O’Rourke may or may not win — but he will certainly have a major effect on down-ballot races. He is by far the most popular Democratic candidate on the statewide ballot. He’s visited all 254 counties of the state, spurring Democrats in even the most rural areas to vote. Thanks in part to his efforts, some of Texas’ largest counties are reporting high levels of voter enthusiasm. Several of the nation’s most competitive races are in Texas, such as U.S. House District 7 in Houston and District 32 in Dallas. By spurring excitement among Democratic voters, O’Rourke could boost turnout and help similar down-ballot progressive candidates win their tight races.
While this coalition may not be enough to propel O’Rourke to turn Texas blue, the progress that he has made will be important in determining future Democratic strategies. At the center of the internal division among Democrats is the issue of whether candidates should stick to left-wing positions when running in red areas, or if they should match the color of their district. Rahm Emanuel, then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman, explains his recruitment strategy in 2006 by saying, “I purposely recruited candidates who reflected the temperament, tenor and culture of their district. I didn’t try to elect somebody that fit my image. I tried to help elect somebody that fit the image and the profile of the district.” His plan paid massive dividends: House Democrats won their largest seat gain since the 1974 elections, finally taking the majority after 12 years in opposition. The fact that O’Rourke has made his race competitive shows future candidates that centrism isn’t the only winning strategy.
More than just reflecting on O’Rourke, this Senate election will teach incumbent Senator Ted Cruz about taking Texas for granted. The largest Texas newspapers have endorsed O’Rourke, including the Houston Chronicle, Dallas Morning News, and Fort Worth Star-Telegram. This is especially unusual given that these newspapers tend to support Republicans. In fact, the Houston Chronicle’s last few Democratic presidential endorsements were Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2008 — and then Lyndon Johnson in 1964. The race is a little closer among likely Texas voters, but the fact that it has come this far is astonishing. For comparison, U.S. Senator John Cornyn was ahead of his Democratic opponent, David Alameel, by 26 percent in the October 2014 UT/TT poll. There’s a clear reason for Cruz’s struggles despite his incumbency status. In his six years in office, he’s focused on causing partisan gridlock and elevating his national profile to prepare for a 2016 presidential run. His actual work on behalf of Texans has been minimal. An analysis by the Texas Observer concludes that Cruz essentially has a “do-nothing record.” He’s only passed two of his own bills. Even on Hurricane Harvey relief, one of the most important and pressing issues for most coastal residents of Texas, his biggest contribution to the final deal was his vote. O’Rourke’s success shows politicians everywhere that if they want to win re-election, they need to earn it by putting their constituents first, not their own political prospects. Even if Cruz is re-elected, he could learn from his mistakes and work harder for Texans.
Beto’s greatest impact may be on the future of America. When he speaks of a progressive future, I believe him. His aura of genuineness comes not just from his youthful dreams but also from his willingness to speak the truth about his beliefs, as liberal as they may be. In exciting his base of disaffected youth, urbanites, and minorities, he could leave a lasting legacy in higher voter turnout among low-propensity voters. Beto has taken the first steps in turning Texas into a purple state — not for partisan reasons, but because he cares about his constituents. His candidacy will hopefully inspire a compassionate approach to service in politicians for generations to come.
