Biden Sweeps Buttigieg Block
By Joanna Bieda
The Progressive Teen Staff Writer
The 2020 Democratic primary race was one of the largest and most diverse in history, and highlighted in it were the various competing ideologies and conditions unique to the Democratic party in this modern-day time period. However, there can only be one individual who gains the nomination at the end of the day, and eventually, such a large field had to narrow down. In a diverse field, candidates gain supporters by appealing to a set of very unique and specific qualities, leaving many to wonder what would happen to these voters if their preferred candidate drops out. On March 1, presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the Democratic race, offering his endorsement to former Vice President Joe Biden. Thus the question emerges: to whom is Buttigieg’s base going? Overall, the trend and clear indicators show that Joe Biden will take the support of Buttigieg voters. But let’s examine.
By early February, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg managed to rake up a minute( but impressive) lead over his more experienced rivals. After winning the Iowa caucuses by a fraction of a percentage point, he headed into New Hampshire cautious, but prepared to be well-received; he tailed Sanders by just under two percent. Nevada and South Carolina were more decisive for Buttigieg, landing third and fourth place, respectively. By March 1, he dropped out formally, and in doing so, endorsed Biden. As the moderate that he is, Buttigieg’s endorsement highlighted precisely why a Sanders nomination would be unlikely to turn into a Sanders administration, citing divisive rhetoric and policy.
There are certain lessons we can all learn from Buttigieg’s performance in these primary states, especially now that it means voters in the upcoming primary states of Hawaii, Wisconsin, and Alaska will be supporting another. For one, his base is broad, but less dedicated than that of Sander’s. Buttigieg voters are not marked as distinctively as either Biden’s older moderates or the younger, more diverse “Bernie bros” are. To be certain, Buttigieg by no means was the favorite among all voters, but his presence — though diminishing from Iowa to South Carolina — was undeniable. He maintained proportionality with those identifying as men and women, did not preach to one corner of a crowd, and kept his eyes open and ears keen for growth where he could find it. It is the accessibility Pete has offered to millions of voters that will ultimately swing a considerable portion of his voters to the less ‘radical’ Biden.
Though his campaign held a weaker base, Americans 65+ found their clear favorite in Buttigieg. Whether it was Buttigieg’s consistent steadiness and guiding comfort or eloquence and poise that convinced senior voters, this base definitely will find their niche in a candidate that, like Buttigieg, does not veer far from the “appropriate” and familiar. Vice President Joe Biden offers that kind of solution. This especially can be seen to be so when a resounding majority of senior citizens prefer a more moderate approach to policy, and as many as 51% of voters in Sanders’ victory state of New Hampshire called him “too liberal.”
Like senior citizens, more high-income and college-educated Americans are attracted to the same articulate candidate. ABC News found that roughly one-third of individuals with a $100,000+ household income voted for Buttigieg. When analyzing how these observations cross-over into Biden and Sanders territory, neither candidate is known to perform particularly well with college-educated individuals. However, Biden’s recent performances have demonstrated that college-educated voters, especially women, who make up 57% of the Democratic Party, have begun to coalesce around Biden. Biden only had 30% of the white college-educated woman vote before several candidates dropped out, he now has 55%.
These three characteristics, combined with a handy endorsement from both Midwestern moderates, almost spell doom for Senator Sanders, yet some may think that not all hope is lost for some voter allocation. Contention might be drawn upon that despite a history of criticizing Sanders, denouncing his proposals in formal speeches and empathizing with voters, Buttigieg may see a considerable portion of his voters going toward Sanders. In a Morning Consult poll conducted in late February, a surprising 21% of Buttigieg voters helped Sanders as their second option for a vote. This number is significant, but it does not account for the fact that this is a fluid voter base, fully aware and acknowledging the fact that Sanders might not have enough broad support nationwide to defeat President Trump, a priority for 60% of American voters. It’s also not representative of voters who have spoken-out about their willingness to switch to either Biden or Sanders. The same polling agency found that an endorsement from Buttigieg would have shifted 63% of that poll’s participants to Biden, and only 49% of its participants to Sanders.
These predictions will inevitably be embodied in upcoming primary states. It was the case for Illinois, Washington, and several other states. Even though 11 states and territories have pushed back their primaries over fear of COVID-19, it becomes easier to see what new pores Buttigieg voters have filled.
Regardless of endorsements, labels, and projected polling numbers, the remaining candidates’ behavior leading up to the April primaries (and debate!) will determine if Sanders truly is destined to phase out or if Biden’s proposed step-up on normalcy just isn’t enough.
