Democratic Primary Polling Projections
Who’s most likely to win? Which candidates are surging, which ones will drop?
The Progressive Teen Contributing Writer
While the Democrats can agree that somebody needs to beat President Trump, as a party there is no unity on who will be the chosen candidate for the general election. With the first caucus taking place in Iowa on February 3rd, former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are emerging as clear front runners in the race, while candidates such as Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and former Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg are falling behind.
According to recent polling, Senator Sanders is gaining support, while still polling slightly behind Biden in most projections. In California and Utah, Sanders is polling ahead of Biden. For example, a California poll has Sanders in the lead, followed by Warren and susequently Biden, with Klobuchar and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg next. In Utah, Warren is polling behind Sanders, followed by Biden, Bloomberg and Buttigieg. In the statistics regarding the race thus far, Sanders is polling ahead of Warren, though they both represent the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
Biden currently appears to be the frontrunner throughout the entire country, according to a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University. He polls ahead of Sanders in states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Connecticut, Missouri, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Texas. Not far behind Biden and Sanders is Warren, although it appears that she is having difficulty gaining the support necessary to edge ahead of either candidate.
Interestingly, the Senate impeachment trial has the potential power to damage Biden’s campaign due to the nearly constant discussion of his son’s business relationships in Ukraine. However, Biden is still polling very well nearly everywhere, despite falling behind Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire in some polls.
Buttigieg is also an interesting story. Many projections suggested that he would pull ahead because he could campaign full-time in Iowa and New Hampshire, while candidates like Senators Klobuchar, Warren and Sanders are tied up in Washington serving as jurors in the Senate impeachment trial, which started on January 21. While his poll numbers are lagging in most states, he is currently projected to come in third in both Iowa and New Hampshire, which are very important because they are the first states to vote. If Buttigieg could somehow pull off wins in these two races, this could spark support for him throughout the country.
In November 2019, Bloomberg threw a curveball by making a late entry into the presidential race. He has not appeared in any of the Democratic presidential debates and is not competing in Iowa or New Hampshire, focusing instead on later contests, in which he is polling somewhere in the middle.
According to the latest Iowa polls, Sanders is the front runner, followed by Biden, Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar. Similarly, in New Hampshire, Sanders has the most support. Close behind him are by Biden and Buttigieg, followed by Warren and Klobuchar.
According to many polls, if the primaries were held today, the Democratic presidential candidate would most likely be either Sanders or Biden. However, it will be up to the voters to decide whether they want a progressive candidate such as Sanders to run against President Trump, or a more moderate candidate such as Biden, who might have the potential to pick up some moderate Republican and independent votes. Many voters are concerned with electability, as well as the wide array of policies the candidates propose. Go out and vote, and let the country know who you would like to see cinch the Democratic presidential candidacy.
