Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization: what you need to know about the Mississippi abortion case
Over the past few years and especially more recently, many red states have enacted strict abortion laws in blatant violation of Roe v. Wade (1973), that abortion cannot be restricted until viability at 24 weeks. The Texas Heartbeat Act bans all abortions at 6 weeks when a fetal heartbeat can first be detected — and when most women do not even know they are pregnant. Mississippi’s abortion ban is less restrictive, but it still bans abortion at 15 weeks, clearly in violation of the federal law set in Roe.
In order for the Supreme Court to hear a case, four or more justices must vote to hear it (the “Rule of Four”). In the spring of 2021, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a suit brought by Jackson Women’s Health Organization against Thomas E. Dobbs, the State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health. This case challenges the constitutionality of Mississippi’s abortion law because it bans abortion before 24 weeks. A district court in Mississippi has granted a temporary restraining order on the enforcement of Mississippi’s abortion ban, so this particular ban is not currently in effect. This decision has been appealed twice. Simply choosing to hear the case was a huge decision by the Supreme Court because it did not have to, and this case will have huge ramifications — whether the Mississippi law is upheld or ruled unconstitutional.
Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization has the potential to overturn Roe, and a woman’s right to choose would no longer be protected in many states. This result could be devastating for women around the country seeking abortions for whatever reason.
Personally, as both a woman and human, I hope the Supreme Court decides to uphold the precedent set in Roe by ruling in favor of Jackson Women’s Health Organization. The right to get an abortion is a woman’s fundamental right and banning abortion pre-viability violates a woman’s bodily autonomy. Additionally, it is vital to uphold Roe to protect a woman’s right to choose and also to ensure that abortion law is standardized by federal law in a manner that protects women’s’ rights throughout the country.
Unfortunately, this is the most unlikely result of the case. The Supreme Court currently leans conservatively because of Trump’s three appointees: Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett. There are fewer than four liberal justices who are in favor of upholding Roe (and five are needed for a majority), so the Court is most likely to decide in favor of overturning Roe and upholding the Mississippi abortion ban. This would set an important precedent going forward that abortion is a state issue and that states have the ability to ban abortions, even before viability. This likely result would be a major victory for conservatives.
There are three possible outcomes in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. The Supreme Court could uphold Roe and overturn the Mississippi ban (very unlikely), it could overturn Roe completely and decide states can restrict abortion at any time (very likely), or it could uphold the Mississippi law and change the timeframe in which states can restrict abortion from 24 weeks to 15 weeks (also a very likely outcome). Justices Breyer, Kagan and Sotomayor will likely vote to uphold Roe. Justices Thomas, Gorsuch and Alito will likely vote to overturn Roe completely. I believe justices Kavanaugh and Roberts will vote to allow abortion restrictions/bans after 15 weeks. Either way, the chances are incredibly slim that Roe will be upheld.
The main conservative arguments against upholding Roe are that abortion is out of the federal government’s control (the idea of limited government and that abortion policy should be determined by the states), that the Supreme Court should not uphold a “bad precedent” (Roe) even though it has dictated the law of the land for decades, and even that abortion is murder, an argument that satisfies the Evangelical conservative base.
In the Dobbs case, the strongest arguments for Mississippi is that the standard of 24 weeks set by Roe is arbitrary. Viability may now be earlier in pregnancy because of improved science and medicine. Another argument for Mississippi is that many women hold office and can act in pursuit of their interests in state legislatures (the federal government does not need to protect female interests).
The main liberal arguments for upholding Roe are that it should be upheld because of stare decisis (decisions should be upheld unless there is overwhelming justification for overturning them to avoid discontinuity in public policy), and that overturning Roe would make the Court look like an illegitimate and partisan institution.
Jackson Women’s Health Organization presents numerous strong arguments against the Mississippi law that bans abortion at 15 weeks. It is arguing that restricting abortions does not stop abortion — it only stops safe abortion and leads to dangerous back-alley abortions. Thus, states should protect access to abortion because this protects the mental and physical health of women. Additionally, protecting a woman’s right to abortion helps combat gender inequality. Finally, body autonomy is part of the fundamental American right of liberty and the federal government has an obligation to ensure that states do not restrict the fundamental rights of its citizens.
Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization will be decided by the Supreme Court during its 2022 term.
