Implications of a Government Shutdown
What the shutdown means for 2018 and beyond
By Natalie Kelly
The Progressive Teen Staff Writer
If YOUR FAMILY PLANS ON VISITING THE SMITHSONIAN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, they might be out of luck. For now, the government has shut down, bringing up alarming questions about what exactly that means. Although the word “shutdown” alludes to massive layoffs and complete federal standstill, the actual events often are less than catastrophic. While the shutdown most likely won’t have long-reaching effects for most citizens, it may determine the fate of political battles over immigration and shape 2018 strategies.
For those working for the government, their pay will stagnate. Some employees are furloughed, or sent home without work. Depending on how long the shutdown lasts, this may become a welcome break, or a devastating economic stressor on hundreds of families. Of course, these employees are brought back to work once the shutdown is over, offering reassurance while they wait. Others, including those in essential jobs, continue to work, but without pay. In 2013, these employees had to wait 16 days to be paid, but were given everything they earned during that time period. These most important employees are necessary to keep the country safe and include airline and border security as well as the military. Following the 2013 shutdown, economic data shows that government employees reduced personal spending 10–20%, but didn’t cross into making long-term cuts, primary due to the length of the shutdown. On a national scale, the shutdown would have to last longer than two weeks to truly affect our GDP, as government spending and functions make up a portion of our profits.
And we can’t forget that legislators — yes, the very people who set off the shutdown — will also receive pay. Some members of Congress have chosen to donate their pay, such as Reps. Andy Harris (R-MD), John Delaney (D-MD), Rick Allen (R-GA), Mia Love (R-UT), and Senator Todd Young (R-IN), or at least ask that it be withheld. While some argue that our Congress is still currently working to resolve the shutdown and deserve compensation, others note that losing pay could incentivize compromise.
More important than the issue of pay is how the legislature plans to resolve the shutdown. The original issue centered around DACA, because Democrats wouldn’t pass federal funding until protections for undocumented children were ensured. Whether or not this move was politically advantageous is up for debate. While it certainly shows commitment to the cause, their decision may not promise a favorable DACA deal. As always with politics, their success may also depend on the ever-changing public opinion.
Already, politicians and the public are moving to blame one side or the other for the shutdown, with “Schumer Shutdown,”“Trump Shutdown,” and the more pointed “Shithole Shutdown” already circulating in the media. Many point to the fact that Republicans control all three branches of government — after all, they should easily be able to achieve their agendas. Others, however, think the blame will stick with Democrats for playing hardball and causing the shutdown.
If empirics are any indicator of election chances, it seems like November may be far enough away to erase the shutdown from voters’ minds. In 2013, an October shutdown, which was largely blamed on Republicans, still allowed for an increased majority in the 2014 midterms. Even by November of 2013, public opinion bounced back to pre-shutdown levels for Republicans, while Democrats were left until April before recovering from the havoc. Past evidence most likely won’t convince either party not to use the shutdown during the election. However, given most voter’s indifference towards shutdown, it most likely will not be the deciding factor.
The current deal involves ending the shutdown in exchange for a fair debate over immigration, with an expected resolution before DACA expires in March. The resolution only allows legislators until February 8th to fund the government, a three-week extension. Also on the docket? Relief for Puerto Rico, the new farm bill, and the wall, among other issues. However, some worry that the new deal is not enough to protect undocumented children. Potential roadblocks include the House, which was not involved in the deal, and Trump himself, who would still have to sign the bill. His likelihood to do so may depend on the day, as Trump’s feelings on DACA are constantly inconsistent.
The shutdown only caused chaos for a few days. It wasn’t long enough to truly affect the pay of government workers and hasn’t led to a definite resolution on US immigration policy. Considering it’s only January, the shutdown most likely will not determine the midterms. Although we don’t know yet who will take the eventual blame, responsibility for the shutdown will be less politically important than its outcome. The next few weeks will be focused more on how Democrats plan to ensure protections for those affected by DACA and how both sides plan to resolve funding issues to avoid another shutdown. This three-day interlude merely served to awaken politicians to the need for action, and soon.
