Moderate or Progressive? How About Neither?
Polling can bring an answer to the policy question every Democrat is asking.
The Progressive Teen Staff Writer
With the 2020 Presidential primary season in full swing and the Iowa caucuses only a few months away, many questions linger in the minds of Democratic voters. Are Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders too old? Is Mayor Pete Buttigieg too young? Should Democrats nominate a woman or person of color to energize those demographic groups in the general election? Is Andrew Yang actually going to legalize marijuana on 4/20? However, perhaps the most common ideological question facing Democratic primary voters is a seemingly simple one: moderate or progressive?
Conventional wisdom asserts that the purpose of a primary election is to nominate a candidate most likely to win in the general election. Many Democrats are worried that by nominating a progressive candidate such as Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, the party will once again alienate rural Democrats in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan that abandoned the party in 2016 to vote for Donald Trump. Candidates such as former Vice President Joe Biden and even Sen. Amy Klobuchar have capitalized on this fear, implicitly or explicitly, as a central theme of their campaigns.
Conversely, many Democrats also fear that by electing a moderate candidate simply because of their reputation as such might alienate liberal voters, and not excite enough Democrats to show up to the polls on voting day in 2020. Additionally, these voters worry that a moderate candidate would not propose enough progressive policies to adequately establish a Democratic agenda. Sen. Elizabeth Warren famously defended the appeal of a popular progressive in the first July Democratic Primary Debate amidst attacks from more moderate candidates such as former Rep. John Delaney and Gov. Steve Bullock.
“I don’t understand why anybody goes to all the trouble of running for president of the United States to talk about what we really can’t do and shouldn’t fight for,” she said.
Many voters are still struggling with this question today, and when looking at the data behind how Democrats are thinking, it becomes clear which candidates Democrats should be looking to nominate in 2020.
Ideological identification of Democrats by Demographics
Statistically, a significant portion of Democrats do not identify as liberal, particularly black Democrats and Democrats with high school education or less, and this would at first indicate the appeal of a more moderate candidate. However, it is clear that across the various demographic groups that tend to make up the core of the Democratic party, there is a lot of divisiveness among political self-identification, making a broad assumption that Joe Biden would have universal appeal unsubstantiated. Additionally, this divisiveness is not true of opinions on policy.
While a significant number of Democrats did not themselves identify as liberal, many who do not claim to be liberal nonetheless hold liberal stances on significant issues that are shaping the primary today. On average, only 62% of Democrats who claim to be conservative actually hold the conservative position on issues such as abortion, gun control, and immigration. This difference between self-identification and policy position emphasizes that while Democrats are seemingly divided between moderates and progressives, they are in reality more united than labels indicate.
Democrats’ Position on Policy Issues by Ideological Identification
These findings further suggest that while claiming to be a “liberal” may be considered a faux pas in many areas of the Democratic party, many voters will still support liberal positions. Self-identified liberal and progressive candidates such as Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris may still face an uphill battle with many Democratic voters due to their policy positions.
Moderate candidates such as former Vice President Joe Biden or Sen. Amy Klobuchar may similarly face resistance due to the large number of Democratic voters who may identify with their brand but disagree on policy issues.
Conversely, candidates such as entrepreneur Andrew Yang or South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who hold liberal positions without self-identifying or claiming to be liberals themselves, may find more success among Democratic voters. Yang, for example, has emerged as one of the loudest critics of large technology companies such as Amazon, and yet nonetheless continues to claim he has a broad coalition appeal that spans party lines.
Ultimately, Democrats aren’t the only ones voting for president in 2020: Republicans, independents, and third-party members are voting too. When comparing the policy positions of both Democrats and Republicans, it becomes apparent that a candidate with more left leaning positions may be better positioned to win the White House. In continuing with the same survey previously used, Democrats and Republicans were polled on their positions on various policy issues, and these were compared with the policy positions adopted by the party as a whole. Republicans were much less likely than Democrats to support their own party’s position on an issue. By keeping Democratic positions without identifying as a liberal, left moderate candidates are uniquely positioned to appeal to both political parties.
Policy Agreement Among Registered Democrats and Republicans
Returning to the question of the day, who should Democrats vote for once the primaries really start? A moderate who is a “safe choice,” as Dr. Jill Biden calls her husband, or a liberal such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris who can push the status quo to the left? Well, it’s not exactly either. Candidates with liberal positions who don’t call themselves liberals such as Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang are uniquely situated to take advantage of the current political climate and win the White House in 2020.
