Super Tuesday 2020: What It Means For The Race Ahead
By Edward Ding
The Progressive Teen Contributor
True to its name, this year’s Super Tuesday on March 3rd, 2020 was a critical point in the fight for the Democratic nomination. It led to the rapid dropping out of two major candidates and caused the narrowing of a once-broad Democratic field into a race between former Vice President Joe Biden, and Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders. The sizable losses sustained by former front-runner Bernie Sanders proved that the race had more than a few more surprises to deliver. With 14 states holding their primaries simultaneously and with almost one-third of the total delegates for the Democratic race being dolled out on that day, it comes with little surprise that Super Tuesday allowed for a multitude of shifts in the tumultuous fabric of this election season.
What is Super Tuesday? Why is it important?
March 3rd, or Super Tuesday as it is more commonly known, is the single day when the greatest number of U.S. states and territories hold their primaries elections and caucuses. As aforementioned, more than a third of all delegates for the Democratic National Convention this June are awarded on this single day. Although both traditional primaries and caucuses are held, many Super Tuesday states (e.g. Washington) have switched from caucuses to primaries, a notable change from 2016.
A crucial number to keep in mind is 15%, the minimum vote share a candidate must get in a single state to receive any delegates from that state, the so-called “15% delegate threshold.” In total, 1,367 delegates will be handed out to various candidates, compared to only 155 delegates from states that vote before Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday states span the breadth of the entire country, from Southern states like Alabama to the progressive strongholds of California and Massachusetts, and can provide crucial information about an electorate before the general election. A candidate’s relative performance among a specific region or demographic can often be extrapolated from the results, useful for predicting election results.
Who were the candidates?
Through months of grueling campaigning and the winnowing effects of the earlier primaries, a once expansive democratic field has been reduced to four major contenders. Notably, all are above the age of 70. All have also held political office, with Sanders, Warren, and Biden all serving in the Senate at one point or another, and with Bloomberg previously serving as the Mayor of New York City.
- Michael Bloomberg —The billionaire CEO of the eponymous media company, he is one of the richest men in America, with an estimated net worth of fifty billion dollars. Bloomberg drew substantial media attention for his willingness to spend vast sums of his fortune, with his campaign regularly outspending many of the other candidates combined, costing him more than half a billion dollars in advertisement alone. He poised himself as the moderate candidate most likely to beat Trump and touted his willingness to use his financial resources as a boon to other down-ballot candidates, devouring Trump in a flood of money, earning him substantial criticism from progressive voters, who fear that he is trying to purchase the nomination. He dropped out on March 4.
- Bernie Sanders — The longtime progressive firebrand from Vermont, and a self-declared Democratic Socialist, Bernie found his momentum and his leagues of fervent supporters blunted by Joe Biden’s crushing victory in the South Carolina primary, just days before. He shows strong support among young voters and first-time voters, with his weakest support base coming from older black voters, a trait that had cost him dearly in 2016. Although Sanders pulled off a convincing 2nd place in Iowa, a clear 1st place in New Hampshire, and a landslide victory in Nevada, the rapid coalescing of moderate candidates around Biden and Bloomberg after the exit of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar from the race appeared to have hurt him in polling, with Biden enjoining an almost astronomical surge and Sanders stagnating in the week before Super Tuesday.
- Elizabeth Warren — Once considered the darling of the progressive movement, the last few months have not been very kind to the Senator from Massachusetts. She had sunken from a high of 23.7% on FiveThirtyEight’s polling average tracking to a dismal showing of 12.4% the night of Super Tuesday. Although she still showed substantial support with progressives and educated white voters, state-by-state polling showed she was not favored to win a single one of the 14 contests on Super Tuesday. Warren drew much of her support from more affluent progressives, while Sanders’ base was much more working class. She dropped out on March 5.
- Joe Biden — The candidate most predicted to win the Democratic nomination throughout much of this election season according to FiveThirtyEight’s models, Biden cruised into Super Tuesday having been brought back from the dead by a resounding victory in the South Carolina primary, just in time to blunt Sanders’ momentum from his landslide victory in Nevada. South Carolina also demonstrated his appeal to African American voters. The rapid coalescing of the field has helped him greatly — Biden excelled among voters who had decided fairly recently on whom to pick. He is also widely considered the best person to beat Donald Trump in the general election, a trait very important to many Democrats.
Results by each state, with analysis.
- Alabama — Biden Victory
The first state in the Deep South to vote in the primary, Alabama boasts one of the largest African-American electorates in the entire nation, with Black voters forming 54% of total primary voters. Although Sanders showed strength with younger African-American voters, it was not nearly enough to counter Biden’s support from older voters. Alabama was a devastating victory for Biden, who captured 63.3% of the vote compared to Sanders’ 16.54%, or a margin of more than 210,000 votes. None of the other candidates passed the delegate threshold, and even Sanders was on the cusp of suffering the same fate. Biden’s dominating performance in the South would be repeated throughout the entire night, greatly assisted by the South’s copious numbers of moderate or conservative Democrats. Like Biden, Hillary Clinton won a lopsided victory here against Sanders in 2016.
2. Arkansas — Biden Victory
Another Southern state, Arkansas was already a reach for the Sanders campaign. Correspondingly, Biden again demonstrated his strong support with black voters by winning 40.5% of the vote, compared to Sanders’ 22.37%, or a margin of more than 40,000 votes. Outside of the top two candidates, only Michael Bloomberg crossed the delegate threshold, with 16.73% of the vote. Biden won 15 of the state’s 31 delegates, with Sanders winning 9 and Bloomberg winning 5. Sanders lost heavily here in 2016 as well, with Hillary Clinton carrying 66.1% of the vote.
3. California — Sanders Victory
The most populous state in the country (and my home state) did not disappoint this election season, with over 5 million Californians voting. California was also the largest prize in delegates on Super Tuesday, with 415 delegates. The state had also recently moved its primary up from June to Super Tuesday. Although California was a state Sanders lost badly in 2016, this time around his campaign made California a central part of his Super Tuesday strategy. In the lead up to Super Tuesday, Sanders commanded a vast field presence that outmatched and outspent all but billionaire Michael Bloomberg. Sanders’ courting of Latino voters paid off big on Super Tuesday, with exit polls in California showing an overwhelming 49% of Hispanic voters supporting him. However, Biden won the endorsement of influential Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and showed substantial support among suburban and moderate voters. Sanders won 49 out of 58 counties in California, helping to alleviate would have otherwise been a calamitous night. Although provisional and mail-in ballots are still being counted, Sanders has so far received 35.2% of the vote, to Biden’s 28.0%, or a lead of almost 400,000 votes. In 2016, Sanders only received 45.7% of the vote to Clintons’s nearly 53.4%. No other candidate outside of the top two passed the 15% delegate threshold.
4. Colorado — Sanders Victory
Another cornerstone to Sanders’ western strategy, the state of Colorado delivered another victory for his supporters, netting 37.0% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 24.7%. In 2016 Sanders pulled similar margins, winning 59.0% to Clinton’s 40.3%. One of many states that had switched from a caucus to a primary, Colorado boasts substantial numbers of progressive and working-class voters, a key base for Sanders’ campaign. Besides Biden and Sanders, Colorado was one of the few states where Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg also passed the delegate threshold. The state is overwhelmingly white, with Biden’s core demographic of African Americans forming only 4.12% of the total population.
5. Maine —Biden Victory
A state that borders Vermont, Sanders’ home state, Maine was consistently considered to be in the bag for Sanders in the week before Super Tuesday. Although Biden’s lead of 34.1% to 32.9% is relatively narrow, Maine still constituted a very poor showing for Sanders. Yet another state that had moved their primaries up to Super Tuesday, Maine had also switched from a caucus to a primary for the 2020 election season. Sanders won a lopsided victory here in 2016 against Hillary Clinton and had hoped to repeat such a feat. Of Maine’s roughly 1 million-strong electorate, more than 96% are white. Outside of Sanders and Biden, Elizabeth Warren was the only one to pass the delegate threshold, netting 15.7% of the vote and earning a paltry 4 delegates.
6. Massachusetts — Biden Victory
A state that Clinton had carried by a slim margin in 2016, the Sanders campaign had hoped to fare better in Massachusetts this year. Unfortunately, competition with Elizabeth Warren in her home state split the traditionally progressive Democratic electorate and allowed Biden to triumph. Although Sanders put up a hard fight without Boston itself (where he trailed Biden by only ~60 votes) and dominated the working-class interior of the state, Biden’s strength with affluent suburban voters and moderates was too strong. Biden eventually won 268 out of 351, an improvement over Clinton’s figures. Biden won 33.6% of the vote, with Sanders earning 26.7%, and Warren coming in third with 21.4%. No other candidates managed to pass the 15% delegate threshold. Warren’s crippling loss in her home state all but signaled the end of her campaign as a major force in the race.
7. Minnesota — Biden Victory
Minnesota was a very good example of the power of endorsements when used at the right time. Although Minnesota had been a toss-up between Senator Amy Klobuchar (her home state) and Bernie Sanders, Klobuchar’s exit from the race and endorsement of Biden seriously placed the race into doubt. Minnesota’s primary ended up displaying behavior indicative of other Midwest states —Sanders significantly under-performed polls and Biden’s numbers exploded. In the end, Biden scored more than 38.6% of the vote share, with Sanders trailing with a little less than 30%, making it an especially painful loss for the Sanders campaign. He had once enjoyed a lopsided victory against Clinton in 2016, a feat Sanders was unable to replicate. Once again, Biden showed support among middle class moderates, while Sanders enjoyed the support of younger voters and college students. Elizabeth Warren was the only other candidate able to gain delegates, barely crossing the delegate threshold with 15.41% of the vote.
8. North Carolina — Biden Victory
Another mid-Atlantic state with substantial populations of African Americans, moderates, and suburbanites, North Carolina formed a perfect storm for Biden, who exploited the recent departure of competing moderate candidates to win a crushing victory against Sanders. Biden received 42.3% of the vote, to Sanders’ 24.1%. No other candidate passed the delegate threshold. North Carolina was also another state that had moved up its primary to Super Tuesday for 2020. Although Clinton had won a large victory over Sanders in 2016, most polls before Super Tuesday showed Sanders with a convincing lead. However, recorded turnout for 2020 was nearly 17% over 2016 levels, with most of that support coming from suburban and affluent voters, friend to Biden. The wave of young voters Sanders predicted never emerged. Once again, Biden used the so-called “Obama coalition” of white affluent moderates and African American voters to achieve victory.
9. Oklahoma — Biden Victory
The Sooner State denied Sanders of a much-needed victory, allowing Biden to lead in every single county. The loss was especially sour for Sanders, who had won an upset victory against Hillary Clinton in 2016 in this state, 51.9% to 41.5%. Although Biden had been doing well with college-educated voters all night, Oklahoma exit polls indicated a far more resounding victory. Although Biden had been favored to win this state in polling before Super Tuesday, the scale of the victory was still a heavy shock. Biden received 38.7% of the vote, compared to Sanders’ 25.4%, a margin of nearly 30,000 votes. Neither Elizabeth Warren nor Michael Bloomberg successfully passed the barrier of 15% support, but they did score some congressional district delegates.
10. Tennessee — Biden Victory
Unsurprisingly, Biden pulled off another devastating victory in Tennessee, with its substantial African American population and relatively conservative tilt. A poll conducted in the days before Super Tuesday had indicated an extremely tight race, with Biden at 28% and Sanders at 27%. Unfortunately for the Sanders campaign, Sanders grossly under-performed polling here, and in other nearby states. Although Biden’s victory in Tennessee may not seem too out of place when considering Hillary’s more than 66% blowout here in 2016, it only serves to reinforce the argument for his electability, a popular angle from the former vice-president. Biden netted 41.71% of the vote, compared to Sanders’ 24.97%, a margin of more than 70,000 votes. Michael Bloomberg was able to cross the delegate threshold, albeit barely, with 15.45% of the vote.
11. Texas — Biden Victory
The second-largest state in the country by both land area and population, Texas would go to test Sanders’ organizational capabilities and appeal among the large Latino population. Sanders pulled off a commanding second-place finish at 29.98%, a respectable total if not for the substantial losses earlier in the night. Biden won 34.49% of the total votes cast, a margin of around 90,000 votes, even after barely visiting the state. He had benefited from the endorsement of local politicians, including former Presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke. Although Sanders had hoped to pull off an upset victory by clinching two of the nation’s most populous states, he was unable to shake off the specter of his devastating 28 point loss in 2016 to Hillary Clinton.
12. Utah — Sanders Victory
Utah was a reprieve for Sanders, after the pummeling the campaign had received earlier in the night. Sanders won 36.14% of the statewide vote, compared to 18.44% for Joe Biden. However, Elizabeth Warren managed to score above the delegate threshold. Utah’s Democratic electorate has always been rather progressive, helping explaining the strong performances of Sanders and Warren. Unlike the Midwestern states, Sanders over-performed polling. He once again performed strongly in urban and progressive environments, like the cities of Salt Lake City and Provo, getting 37.6% and 36.4% of the vote respectively.
13. Vermont — Sanders Victory
Sanders pulled off an easy victory in Vermont, his home state. He swept every single county, and received over 50% of the vote, compared to 22% for Joe Biden. The small northeastern state has always been favorable territory, with its liberal political tilt and overwhelmingly white population. However, in a possible omen, Sanders could not fully replicate his dominating performance in 2016, when opponent Hillary Clinton fell short of delegate threshold, and therefore none of the delegates.
14. Virginia — Biden Victory
In a state containing both the affluent suburbs of Washington, D.C. and rural, working-class communities, Virginia’s results are often indicative of much of the mid-Atlantic and beyond. Although polls showed Biden with a commanding lead over Sanders in the days leading up to Super Tuesday, nobody was prepared for the scale of such a victory. Biden received over 700,000 individual votes (53.2% of total), in a state where during the 2016 primary, only around 780,000 people voted in total. Instead of Sanders leading a wave of progressive voters, it was actually Biden who boosted turnout substantially, winning all but three of Virginia’s counties. It was an expected, but no less bitter defeat for Mr. Sanders, who has unfortunately failed to expand his base to include the white collar and African American voters Biden had come to depend on.
What does it all mean for the general election?
Super Tuesday was deeply illustrative of the challenges the party still faces as the country begins to focus on the challenge of beating Donald Trump.
Elizabeth Warren, after a poor Super Tuesday showing, dropped out of the race days later. Michael Bloomberg, after sinking hundreds of millions of dollars into the race, dropped out of the race the next day after a similarly poor electoral performance.
Turnout among Democrats greatly increased almost across the board — in Virginia, almost 600,000 more people voted this year when compared to 2016. However, not all demographics behaved the same way. Although Sanders had banked his entire campaign on the promise of a surge in young voters, the resultant rise in turnout ironically benefited Biden instead. Youth turnout did indeed increased by a moderate amount. Unfortunately however, in many states, the share of the youth vote actually declined, as much larger increases in turnout came from other age groups. As Sanders himself admitted:
“Have we been as successful as I would hope in bringing young people in? The answer is no.”
However, Democrats do not need to despair. Biden harnessed the traditional Democratic coalition of white moderates and African American voters to claim victory in ten states, a reliable strategy that had previously propelled both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton to the White House. An especially interesting development is Biden’s relatively good performance among voter blocs that had abhorred Hillary Clinton in 2016 — the blue-collar voters that had propelled Sanders to beat Clinton in various Midwestern primaries appear to have supported Sanders out of pure dislike for Clinton.
The 2020 Presidential Election will be a watershed moment in the history of this nation. We, as the electorate of America, will have the chance to reject a President that has gone beyond any previous precedent. Although we still have a long and hard road ahead of us, the results of Super Tuesday indicate that not all stories have bad endings.
