The Shadow Fight: The 2020 Gubernatorial Election Forecast
Many an article has been penned on the federal elections of 2020. But the national media has yet to pay much attention to the gubernatorial races (in Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia) that will take place this year. However, these races will determine the course of state policy making for the next four years. Democratic victories are essential to prevent the worst consequences of Republican policy decisions. In many of these states, the Governors also play a key role in redistricting, which has become even more crucial to political success in these polarized times. So here at the Progressive Teen, we’ve decided to give our readers a closer look at the gubernatorial races of 2020.
In Delaware, incumbent Governor John Carney (D) will be celebrating at the Return Day Parade. Cook PVI rates the state as 6 points to the left of the country, with Hillary Clinton winning by a comfortable 12 points in the low-turnout 2016 election. Further, the Republican candidate, attorney Julianne Murray, has not held prior political office and is not well known in the state. Despite recently outraising Governor Carney, she trails Governor Carney in cash on hand by over $300,000. We rate this race as Safe Democratic.
In Indiana, incumbent Governor Eric Holcomb (R) faces off against Dr. Woody Myers (D). Myers served as Health Commissioner of Indiana and New York City, and also worked in C-suite positions for Ford and Wellpoint, Inc. Holcomb is running 10–20 points ahead of Trump in Indiana, which is already a safe Republican state in the Presidential election. We rate this race as a Safe Republican race.
In Missouri, incumbent Governor Mike Parson (R) faces off against Missouri State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D), who is the only Democratic state office holder in Missouri. Parson made national headlines for contracting COVID-19 after refusing to wear a mask and strenuously opposing mask mandates. While once being considered a swing state, Missouri has not voted Democratic in a Presidential election since 1996, Democrats have had their state legislative ranks slashed dramatically since 2010, and ancestrally Democratic counties have turned solid red. The polls have been consistently in favor of Parson, but the margins have narrowed over time. While it is plausible that Parson loses if the Presidential election in Missouri is close, Trump has been consistently leading, and nearly every pundit has rated the Presidential race in Missouri as Safe Republican. We rate this race as a Likely Republican race.
Out in the Big Sky Country of Montana, incumbent Governor Steve Bullock is term-limited and is running for Senate. So, as they usually do in red states, Democrats recruited Bullock’s right-hand man, Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooley (D) to run against US Representative Greg Gianaforte (R). Polls have shown Gianaforte with a narrow lead, but the Presidential race has tightened considerably since the start of the pandemic. Montana is well known in political circles for having a large share of polarization-resisting ticket-splitters, so Cooley still has a good chance of victory given his ties to Bullock. In addition, the recent national news coverage showing former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie being tricked by Cooley’s campaign manager into endorsing Cooley has raised Cooley’s profile, and could make a difference in a close race. Meanwhile, Gianaforte is quite controversial, often being derided as a carpetbagger from New Jersey (as Christie unintentionally suggested) and having been convicted of assaulting a reporter during the 2017 special election to replace Ryan Zinke, who had just been appointed as Secretary of the Interior by President Trump. In 2017, Gianaforte won by a measly five points against musician Rob Quist, who was well-known in Montana but had no political experience, which is a poor performance considering that Trump easily won the state by 20 points just two years earlier. We rate this race as a Lean Republican.
New Hampshire is known for being a swing state, but its Governor’s race is quite one-sided. Incumbent Governor Chris Sununu (R) is running against State Senator and former public defender Dan Feltes. Feltes, the moderate chair of the Ways and Means (which handles tax and appropriations policy) committee in the State Senate, narrowly defeated Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky, a Bernie Sanders-backed progressive. Feltes has tried to connect Sununu to Donald Trump in debates, but so far, it hasn’t worked. While Sununu is far more conservative than Phil Scott, he has managed to distance himself from Trump and focus instead on his right-of-center record, running 20–30 points ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. This is another Safe Republican race.
In North Dakota, incumbent Governor Doug Burgum (R) faces off against veterinarian Dr. Shelley Lenz (D). While Democrats won a statewide race here as recently as 2012 and were quite competitive from the 1960s onward, deindustrialization, the arrival of the oil industry, and increased polarization and racial resentment among whites, who comprise the vast majority of North Dakota’s population have returned North Dakota to its Republican roots. Given that Trump expanded his margin here by 8 points in 2016 and is expected to win again, the state is 16 points to the right of the nation, and the race has not attracted national attention. This is a Safe Republican race.
In the battleground of North Carolina, incumbent Governor Roy Cooper (D) is running against the Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest. His coronavirus restrictions have been relatively modest compared with other Democratic governors, and he won in 2016 despite Trump’s win in the state, signaling that he has the ability to win over some right-leaning independents. Forest gained notoriety after his failed lawsuit to end coronavirus restrictions, but is still not as well known as Governor Cooper. Forest has not led in a single poll (out of more than 50) since 2019, and Cooper’s leads have ranged from 4–20 points. However, the result of this race will probably correspond with the statewide result in the Presidential election, since both candidates have tied themselves to their presidential candidates based on their policy stances and their advertising. Given that most forecasters rate the Presidential election in North Carolina as a toss-up, we rate this race as Leans Democratic.
In Utah, incumbent Governor Spencer Cox (R) holds a massive lead over former CFPB attorney Chris Peterson (D). While Utah is gradually marching leftward due to its burgeoning tech industry and influxes of millennials and minorities, it is still 20 points to the right of the nation. This race has failed to attract national attention, Donald Trump is predicted to easily win it, and the Democratic candidate is not particularly well-known, so we rate this race as Safe Republican.
In Vermont, incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) will be facing off against Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman. Despite being tied for most rural state in the nation, Vermont has been solidly Democratic since 1988. However, Scott is consistently polling ahead of Zuckerman by double-digits, and has unusually high support among Democrats. Vermont is also well known as one of the few states where voters frequently split tickets, and his liberal views on nearly every issue have kept him solidly in control of the race’s trajectory. We rate this race as Safe Republican.
In Washington, incumbent Governor Jay Inslee (D) faces off against police chief Loren Culp (R). Culp gained notoriety for declaring his town a “Second Amendment sanctuary city” and refused to enforce Initiative 1639, which made Washington gun laws the toughest in the United States. Meanwhile, Inslee has been widely recognized as conducting the best state-level response to COVID-19, and won an absolute majority in the 20 candidate top-two primary. As Washington Republicans have taken more extreme stands over the years, they have struggled to elect statewide candidates given the state’s liberal bend. We have no evidence to suggest that has changed. This is a Safe Democratic race.
In West Virginia, incumbent Governor Jim Justice (R) faces off against Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango (D). Governor Justice was elected in 2016 as a conservative Democrat, and switched parties afterwards. Despite being a Democratic bastion just two decades ago, West Virginia has rapidly swung red. In 2000, Al Gore’s environmentalism, which set a precedent for Democratic Presidential candidates, turned away West Virginians who depended on coal for a living. Many West Virginians blamed Democrats for their state’s economic collapse, despite the price drop of natural gas likely playing a greater role. Combined with racial resentment and the Tea Party wave, West Virginia’s Democratic Party shriveled up, losing its state legislative majorities and relying on candidate reputation (which by definition is temporary) to hold on to its US Senate seats. By 2016, Donald Trump carried the state by 40 points and won all of its counties. We rate this race as safe Republican.
