Who Will Triumph In The Florida Gubernatorial Race?
In the 2018 midterms, Florida is having a closely-contested election for governor that could be a crucial win for Democrats
By David Chmielewski
The Progressive Teen Staff Writer
I N THE WORDS OF AN MSNBC ANCHOR RESPONDING TO A CLIP OF A FLORIDA GUBERNATORIAL DEBATE, “If you’re not following the Florida governor’s race, you should be.” In line with Florida’s traditional swing state status, the race to replace incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is an incredibly tight and incredibly important one. With its 21 million population and role in pressing issues like gun control and climate change, Florida’s governor race is a crucial target for both parties, making the question of who will win it highly interesting. Especially for Democrats, this race is crucial as it represents an excellent chance to break the Republican trifecta (a term for controlling the governor’s mansion and both houses of the state legislature) that has existed in Florida since 1998.
With that in mind, Florida Democrats have nominated Mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum. Gillum is notable for getting involved in politics at a very young age; he was first elected to office on the Tallahassee City Commission at just 23 and is currently only 39. Furthermore, he is the first African American nominee put forth by a major party in Florida’s history. If he were elected, he would be both Florida’s first African American governor and only the third African American governor in American history.
On the other hand, Republicans have nominated former Congressman Ron DeSantis. DeSantis served as Representative for the Florida 6th district in Congress after winning the seat in 2012, but he resigned in September of 2018 to focus on his gubernatorial campaign. Throughout his campaign, he has emphasized his strong relationship with President Trump, who has endorsed DeSantis. A perfect example of this strategy is when he released a controversial campaign ad depicting himself teaching his child how to build a wall and say “Make America Great Again.”
But even with Trump throwing his weight behind DeSantis, Gillum appears to have the best chance of winning the race. Currently, 538’s deluxe governor forecast gives Gillum a 72.7 percent chance of winning the race based on polling, campaign fundamentals such as fundraising, and experts’ ratings. 538’s conclusion is further backed up by Gillum’s solid numbers in the polls. For example, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polling in the Florida race, Gillum holds an average lead of 2.6 points over DeSantis. And the two most recent polls included in that average (conducted by St. Pete Polls and the Trafalgar Group) both give Gillum a two point lead.
However, that does not mean Democrats can rest easy knowing they will hold Florida’s governorship. After all, Florida is almost always a close state, meaning DeSantis still has a decent chance at winning the race. As Perry Bacon Jr. of 538 explains, while Gillum may be leading in the polls, “his leads are small and generally within the margin of error.” Furthermore, while Gillum may still be leading solidly in 538’s projections, the 27.3 percent chance they give DeSantis is only slightly less than the 28.2 percent chance they gave Trump before the election. Of course, DeSantis is not guaranteed to be a repeat of Trump and polling suggests it is more likely than not that Gillum will win the race. But, as is true of every race across the country, Democrats must not be complacent. If they want Gillum to win, Florida Democrats need to fight to put his campaign in the strongest possible position before election day, and more importantly, vote.
