Why The Polls Will Be Right This Time
Debunking the myth of polling inaccuracy
By Daniel Song
The Progressive Teen Staff Writer
AFTER SECRETARY HILLARY CLINTON’S DEFEAT IN 2016, despite most polls and forecasts suggesting otherwise, many fear that polls for the 2018 midterm election are also inaccurate and worry that Republicans will keep the House.
The supposed inaccuracy of the polls in 2016 is somewhat of a myth. Polling data for the 2016 election was in fact more accurate than polls from 2012, which underestimated Barack Obama’s popular vote by 2.2%. In 2016, polls still underestimated Hillary Clinton’s popular vote, but by only 1%.
The polls in 2016 were not completely unreliable. According to FiveThirtyEight, in May 2018, the polling error in 2016 was 4.8%, while the average polling error of presidential elections since 1972 was 4.6%. Although polls by state were less accurate, almost all the swing states expected to go to Clinton were still within the margin of error. Trump didn’t need a giant upset to win — he just needed to outperform the polls by a few points in a few states.
Furthermore, the media failed to account for many unique circumstances surrounding the 2016 election that will largely not replicate themselves this upcoming midterm season. In 2016, many commentators dismissed Trump’s candidacy. It was unfathomable to them that a racist reality star, who was heavily burdened by personal scandals, could beat a former Secretary of State and the first woman nominated by one of the major parties in the year 2016.
They did not account for the fact that Hillary Clinton was also a highly flawed candidate who ran on supporting the status quo at a time when the American people demanded change. These circumstances have been reversed. “Drain the Swamp” lost its meaning when Trump appointed the wealthiest presidential cabinet in history, which includes executives from Goldman Sachs.
Much of the electorate gambled by voting for the candidate representing change, but they have had close to two years of experience to see they were incorrect. They also no longer have to cast doubts about voting for the Democrats, which came attached with Clinton as their nominee, since she is no longer the face of that party.
Finally, the Democrats’ high favorability in midterm polls correlates with other factors, such as presidential job approval. According to The Washington Post in September of this year, the presidential approval rating is a better and more stable predictor of midterm elections than polls.
Both reach the same conclusion though — Democrats will win the House. Historically, with one exception, the President’s party lost control of the House when his approval rating was lower than 45%. Trump’s approval rating has not been above 45% since his 6th day in office, according to an aggregate of polls from FiveThirtyEight.
The standards of the polling reliability are also different for this midterm compared to the 2016 presidential election. As long as Democrats win control of the House and Republicans keep the Senate, polling data would prove to be relatively reliable.
FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast shows Democrats with an 82 percent chance of taking the House and fifteen percent for the Senate. At this point, the likelihood of Republicans keeping the House in 2018 is much smaller than Trump’s chance of winning the White House in 2016.
Regardless of the accuracy or inaccuracy of polls, the most important duty of any American eighteen years old or above from now until Tuesday is to vote. Until then, have faith in the data. Democrats should prepare for a majority in the House and strategize to effectively exercise their power.
