Have we seen a Best Picture nominee from 2018 already? Let’s look at the stats
Studios that want to win Oscars have a simple formula that they can follow: release their films in the fall or winter. Since the Academy expanded the Best Picture category to ten nominations in 2009 (and then shifted to up to ten in 2011), 76.5% of Best Picture nominees were released between October and December. This pattern is why Oscar talk doesn’t really kick off in full until the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals that take place between late August and mid September — and why it’s rather exciting when a film released before September is hailed as a potential Best Picture contender.

Since 2009, only 18 out of the 81 Best Picture nominated films were released between January and August — 22.2%. Those are Up, The Hurt Locker, District 9, Inglourious Basterds, Toy Story 3, Winter’s Bone, The Kids Are All Right, Inception, Midnight In Paris, The Tree of Life, The Help, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Boyhood, Mad Max: Fury Road, Hell or High Water, Get Out, and Dunkirk.
There’s certainly a reason why each were nominated despite their release dates. Some were just so good that they revealed the profound ridiculousness of how the Oscar campaign formula shapes when we see movies. Some became cultural landmarks or unprecedented audience hits. Some came from beloved filmmakers. And some followed part of the formula: premiering at a film festival.

Of course, we can only begin to guess the reasons after a nomination happens. Plenty of films from the past nine years can stand right alongside those 18 nominees with just as much reason, but no nomination to show for it.
But is there anything about those 18 nominees that can help us make predictions for 2018?
Statistical “rules” are always broken and relying on stats is a bit silly, especially when the body of the Academy has shifted significantly over the past couple of years. But it could be fun to look at some numbers to see if any films released between January and August this year line up.
Rotten Tomatoes Score
Of the 18 nominees, 13 have a Rotten Tomatoes score over 90%, 7 of those at 97% or higher. Toy Story 3 and Get Out top the pack with 99% each. Four are in the 80s and only one dips into the 70s — The Help at 75%. The average score, weighting the number of reviews, stands at 92%

Metacritic Score
Only one film has a perfect 100 on Metacritic: Boyhood. Five other films are at 90 or above and only three films have scores under 80, The Help with the lowest at 62. The average score, weighting the number of reviews, stands at 85.
Box Office
The box office range is huge, with the lowest grosser, Winter’s Bone, taking in $6.531 million domestically and the highest grosser, Toy Story 3, earning $415.004 million domestically. If we take worldwide totals, the range is even more ridiculous, with Up, Inception, and Toy Story 3 at more than $700 million.

The average domestic take is $120.309 million. However, it seems as though there are two types of films among the 18: those that make over $100 million and those that make less than $100 million, especially considering that the 18 split exactly in half along those lines.
The average domestic take of those over $100 million is $214.071 million. The average of those under $100 million is $26.548 million.
Film Festivals
Blockbusters don’t need to premiere at film festivals to compete for awards. If they’re truly great, they’ve already attracted enough eyes to stand a chance. Some do visit festivals, and it’s rather interesting — such as Up and Mad Max: Fury Road at Cannes.

All nine of the films that grossed under $100 million, however, premiered at a prestigious film festival, with some visiting multiple. The Kids Are All Right, Winter’s Bone, Boyhood, and Beasts of the Southern Wild all premiered at Sundance, with the first three also showing at the Berlin International Film Festival and Beasts of the Southern Wild visiting Cannes. The Grand Budapest Hotel premiered at the Berlin International, and The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris, and Hell or High Water premiered at Cannes. And in an uncommon instance, the year prior to its release, The Hurt Locker premiered at Venice and showed at Toronto.
The Results For 2018
To be clear, holding films from this year strictly to those averages and standards would be silly. Among the 18 that were nominated, only Up, Toy Story 3, and Hell or High Water meet or exceed everything. Films that come close absolutely deserve to be looked at.

So, what films from this year line up?
Across films both above and below $100 million at the domestic box office, there are only two that meet or exceed each stat and requirement: Black Panther and Mission: Impossible — Fallout.
Black Panther has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 97%, a Metacritic score of 88, and a domestic take of $700.059 million. Mission: Impossible — Fallout has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 97% and a Metacritic score of 86. It’s domestic take is currently below average at about $210 million, but it will certainly pass the average before its box office run closes, needing only roughly $4 million more.

For other films over $100 million domestically, two come close. A Quiet Place falls just short of both the Metacritic score and box office averages, and Incredibles 2 falls short of only the Metacritic score average.
The film that grossed under $100 million domestically that, in a way, lines up is Paddington 2. It exceeds every average, but it premiered publically last year in the U.K., with it even being nominated for three BAFTAs, rather than at a film festival.
Sorry to Bother You, a Sundance premiere, and Isle of Dogs, a Berlin International premiere, miss out on two averages each — the Metacritic score and box office for the former, and the Rotten Tomatoes score and the Metacritic score for the latter.

The Death of Stalin falls short of only the box office average. It also has the similar complication that Paddington 2 does, premiering last year in the U.K. (it was also nominated for BAFTAs), but it did visit Toronto last year and Sundance this year.
The final three fall just one short. Hereditary, a Sundance premiere, misses on the Rotten Tomatoes score. BlacKkKlansman, a Cannes premiere, misses on the Metacritic score. And Eighth Grade, a Sundance premiere, misses on box office.
The Eye Test — Round 1
Clearly, not all of these films will be nominated for Best Picture. And there’s a good chance that none of them will be. Even though the average number of films released between January and August that were nominated for Best Picture is at two across the nine years, the average falls to 1.43 after the change in 2011. 2012, 2015, and 2016 saw only one film nominated, and 2013 saw a complete shutout.

Looking at films from 2009 to 2017 that had similar scores, box office takes, and festival appearances, but were not nominated for Best Picture, we can see that many missed out. Four films even meet each average and standard: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2, Inside Out, The Big Sick, and Baby Driver. Among those that are very close are Star Trek, Moonrise Kingdom, Before Midnight, Fruitvale Station, The LEGO Movie, Love & Friendship, and War for the Planet of the Apes.
Overall, there are 19 notable films in the past nine years that weren’t nominated that are comparable to the 18 that were. That means that there were roughly four comparable films per year, with about half of them being nominated. In looking at this year’s films, we can subject the 11 that we have to an eye test to narrow down to a group of five that feel similar to the other years.

The first two that can go are the 2017 U.K. premiering Paddington 2 and The Death of Stalin, both of which are technically eligible. While those BAFTA nominations for each attract a lot of attention, the fact that their premieres the previous year were public and not simply at a festival makes things tricky. And that those premieres were in not only a major foreign country, but one that holds its own prestigious awards only makes things messier.
Both animated films can also go. Only three animated films have ever been nominated for Best Picture. Neither Incredibles 2 nor Isle of Dogs received the absolutely spectacular acclaim that Up and Toy Story 3 did.
A Quiet Place seems to be the great genre picture that’ll be perceived, problematically or not, as just that: the great genre picture. And while Sorry to Bother You has biting social commentary, it’s easy to see that the Academy will find it a bit too out there for Best Picture, similarly to The Lobster two years ago.

That leaves us with Black Panther, Mission: Impossible — Fallout, Eighth Grade, Hereditary, and BlacKkKlansman as the group from this year.
The Eye Test — Round 2
If we’re following patterns, we must narrow down even further, from those five to only two. However, with the new makeup of the Academy’s voting body and ever changing/evolving/increasing influences — such a social media, controversies, and cultural relevance — it’s hard to break these down. A few years ago, it would be easy to rule out all of them. And it’s possible that none of them will make it.
It does seem, though, that Black Panther has the best shot. Nearly everyone has seen it, the acclaim is through the roof, and the film was a watershed moment for representation in mainstream cinema. And that representation wasn’t simply there, but was also delivered on in profound and exciting ways within the film, its storytelling, and its craft.

Mission: Impossible — Fallout is entirely deserving in the same way that Mad Max: Fury Road and Dunkirk were — as propulsive, explosive, exhilarating, and emotional large scale films. But it’s hard to see the Academy nominating the film, with its name alone being an unfair barrier.
Eighth Grade and Hereditary are outstanding and arguably deserving as well, and A24 has emerged as a studio that’ll have something in the mix for the biggest prize each year, but both films seem to ride the problematic edge of what the Academy implies is “award worthy.”
The only thing that seems to be working against Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman is the controversy of its portrayal of police, brought up by Sorry to Bother You director Boots Riley and echoed by some of those from the counter-protests against the neo-Nazis at Charlottesville, an event that Lee includes footage of at the end of the film.

But the controversy doesn’t seem to be that widespread, and many disagree with the negative implications of it. Spike Lee is a beloved filmmaker, BlacKkKlansman won the Grand Prize of the Jury at Cannes, where the film premiered, and the film released to critical acclaim and box office success. And many find that the film, which bluntly parallels the events of the films to many of the awful things going on today, delivers on its story and themes powerfully.
Predictions
Stats can tell us a lot, and they’re often a very important aspect of the discussion. But they’re never the entire discussion. Stats can give us the 11 films that are comparable to the 18 nominees. But then we must understand both the field and the unquantifiable patterns and influences to come to a conclusion.

And of the films released between January and August of this year, Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman look like the two that could land Best Picture nominations.
Based on stats, though, even if we don’t see a film from January to August of this year nominated, we likely won’t see one from this month either. Only one film released in September between 2009–2017 — Moneyball — was nominated for Best Picture. So, we’ll probably have to wait until October, which starts off strong with A Star Is Born.
But surprises are always in store.

