Who will win at the Oscars? Who should? My predictions:

Academy Awards voting closed today, meaning that winners are out there, waiting to be unearthed by the math of accountants. While this awards season has been filled with some absolute sludge, it’s also been fascinating to watch unfold. For what seems to be the first time ever, the major guilds all went with different films — so at least there’s not overwhelming consensus around the sludge. But there’s a lot to work with, in terms of signs and patterns, as we know that stats are slowly becoming less important with an increasingly diversifying Academy voting body. Here are my predictions for who will take home gold this Sunday, as well as my thoughts on who should and who should’ve been nominated:

*I am wildly uninformed about the shorts and have no idea how to predict them other than to look at what the experts think. I would advise the same

Best Sound Mixing

20th Century Fox/Courtesy

Who will win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Who could win: First Man
Who should win: First Man
Who should’ve been nominated: Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Bohemian Rhapsody won the Cinema Audio Society award for sound mixing, in addition to BAFTA’s general sound prize. It’s set up to take home the Oscar, though don’t count out First Man. Just last year, the Academy went with a brutally intense mix in Dunkirk — and three years ago, the Academy went with Mad Max: Fury Road after The Revenant won CAS and BAFTA.

Best Sound Editing

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Who will win: A Quiet Place
Who could win: First Man
Who should win: First Man
Who should’ve been nominated: Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Headlines may have read “Bohemian Rhapsody leads MPSE awards,” but when it comes to how the Motion Picture Sound Editors have lined up with the Oscars, that’s a bit misleading. Bohemian Rhapsody won in the ‘Music in a Musical’ and ‘Dialogue and ADR’ categories, neither of which has matched the Best Sound Editing award in ten years or more. And when ‘Dialogue and ADR’ did with The Bourne Ultimatum and Letters from Iwo Jima, those films also won the ‘Sound Effects and Foley’ award, which is the far more significant indicator and which Bohemian Rhapsody wasn’t even nominated for. A Quiet Place took that award, and Best Sound Editing nominees First Man and Black Panther were nominated. So it seems as though the Oscar is A Quiet Place’s to take, with First Man right there.

Best Visual Effects

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Who will win: First Man
Who could win: Avengers: Infinity War
Who should win: First Man
Who should’ve been nominated: Annihilation

This category is primed for a bit of a surprise. Black Panther won the BAFTA and Critics’ Choice awards, and is not nominated at the Oscars. Avengers: Infinity War took the Visual Effects Society’s main award, while First Man took the supporting award. The supporting award hasn’t lined up since 2011 with Hugo, but the main award isn’t perfect either. It didn’t line up just last year, when War for the Planet of the Apes won at the Visual Effects Society and Blade Runner 2049 took the Oscar. So really, it could go either way, but it seems as though the multiple nominations for First Man, the similarity to previous winners Gravity and Interstellar, and that VFX supervisor Paul Lambert won last year for Blade Runner 2049 could help the film across the finish line.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

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Who will win: Vice
Who could win: Mary Queen of Scots
Who should win: Mary Queen of Scots
Who should’ve been nominated: Black Panther

Vice won the ‘Period and/or Character Makeup’ award from the Makeup and Hair Stylists Guild, which nearly guarantees it a win here, especially because it won the ‘Special Makeup Effects’ award there too. Mary Queen of Scots won the ‘Period and/or Character Hairstyling,’ and is a nice mixture of makeup and hair work, so it’s a factor. But a Vice loss would be surprising.

Best Costume Design

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Who will win: Sandy Powell — The Favourite
Who could win: Ruth E. Carter — Black Panther
Who should win: Ruth E. Carter — Black Panther
Who should’ve been nominated: Caroline Eselin — If Beale Street Could Talk

Since 2010, BAFTA’s winner has lined up with the Oscar winner at seven out of eight times. And with the Costume Designers Guild also awarding The Favourite in the ‘Period’ category, Sandy Powell seems poised to win for her regal work. Ruth E. Carter is formidable, as Black Panther’s costumes have been celebrated for over a year now and considering that the CDG’s ‘Fantasy’ award has some history of lining up, such as with Alice in Wonderland and Mad Max: Fury Road. But those years, BAFTA also tipped those films.

Best Production Design

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Who will win: Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton — The Favourite
Who could win: Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart — Black Panther
Who should win: Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart — Black Panther
Who should’ve been nominated: Mark Digby, Michelle Day — Annihilation

The Art Directors Guild gave The Favourite the ‘Period’ award, which is the most indicative of the guild’s three production design categories. And with BAFTA going for the film as well, The Favourite seems like a very strong bet. Black Panther was honored by the ADG in the ‘Fantasy’ category, so it could certainly compete, especially with it being a Best Picture player too.

Best Cinematography

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Who will win: Alfonso Cuarón — Roma
Who could win: Łukasz Żal — Cold War
Who should win: Alfonso Cuarón — Roma
Who should’ve been nominated: Linus Sandgren — First Man

The American Society of Cinematographers tipped Cold War, but were they ever going to award a director’s first outing as a cinematographer? Likely not. BAFTA went with Cuarón, and considering how this film evokes the kind of work that won Emmanuel Lubezki this award for Cuarón’s Gravity — with Roma being designed, in fact, for Lubezki to shoot, before he eventually couldn’t —it would make sense for the Oscars to follow suit.

Best Film Editing

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Who will win: Hank Corwin — Vice
Who could win: John Ottman — Bohemian Rhapsody
Who should win: Yorgos Mavropsaridis — The Favourite
Who should’ve been nominated: Tom Cross — First Man

This category has been a doozy, with Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and ACE all differing. But that’s not unique, either, as it happened the past two years, as well as in 2014, 2013, and 2011. The Oscars went with Critics’ Choice twice, BAFTA twice, and the ACE ‘Drama’ winner once. The Critics’ Choice winner, Tom Cross for First Man, wasn’t even nominated, so that stat is not a factor. Overall, since 2010, BAFTA has lined up at five out of eight times, while ACE ‘Drama’ has lined up at four out of eight times. So, right now, it’s a bit of a toss up between Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody. Vice could be said to have the most editing, while Bohemian Rhapsody offers musical editing. And most editing is a safe bet.

Best Original Song

Warner Bros./Courtesy

Who will win: “Shallow” — A Star Is Born
Who could win: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” — Mary Poppins Returns
Who should win: “Shallow” — A Star Is Born
Who should’ve been nominated: “Sunflower” — Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Is there any question here? The A Star Is Born deflation couldn’t be that intense, right?

Best Original Score

Disney/Courtes

Who will win: Ludwig Göransson — Black Panther
Who could win: Terence Blanchard — BlacKkKlansman
Who should win: Ludwig Göransson — Black Panther
Who should’ve been nominated: Justin Hurwitz — First Man

This may be one of the tougher categories to predict, as the Globes and Critics’ Choice went with Justin Hurwitz’s very worthy First Man score, which wasn’t nominated by the Academy. And the Hollywood Music in Media Awards aren’t great indicators, awarding Mary Queen of Scots, which wasn’t even nominated. While it does get messy at the Grammys, as its deadlines are across years and not lined up with the calendar year, Black Panther won Best Score Soundtrack for Visual Media, and BlacKkKlansman won an award too. Both are Best Picture contenders too, which could give them the boost they need ahead of If Beale Street Could Talk, another critic favorite. As Black Panther may not win anywhere else, this may be where the Academy tip the landmark film.

Best Animated Feature

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Who will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who could win: Incredibles 2
Who should win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has won every single precursor, from ACE to the Annie Award to BAFTA to PGA. A loss here would be a massive upset, though if there were to be one, it would be a Disney-Pixar film winning Best Animated Feature.

Best Foreign Language Film

Netflix/Courtesy

Who will win: Roma
Who could win: Cold War
Who should win: Shoplifters
Who should’ve been nominated: Burning

Roma could very well win Best Picture, so it should have this in the bag. Only a very embarrassing paradox could give this to Cold War, though that scenario is more plausible than one might expect, as some who vote for Roma in Best Picture might want to vote for Cold War here, thinking that Roma doesn’t need their vote to win.

Best Documentary Feature

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Who will win: Free Solo
Who could win: RBG
Who should win: Minding the Gap
Who should’ve been nominated: The Dawn Wall

The PGA and DGA winners weren’t even nominated at the Oscars — a phenomenon that this category is strangely familiar with. Free Solo won both the BAFTA and ACE awards, putting it out in front. However, with winners voting opening up to the entire Academy, RBG could fare very well.

Best Original Screenplay

Fox Searchlight/Courtesy

Who will win: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara — The Favourite
Who could win: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly — Green Book
Who should win: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara — The Favourite
Who should’ve been nominated: Tamara Jenkins — Private Life

Green Book lost the WGA award to Eighth Grade. Had it gone to a film nominated at the Oscars, it would’ve knocked out Green Book, but it’s still a big hit. The Favourite, which was WGA ineligible, will likely prevail, having won the BAFTA award. And it would deserve to.

Best Adapted Screenplay

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Who will win: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee — BlacKkKlansman
Who could win: Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty — Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who should win: Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty — Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who should’ve been nominated: Josh Singer — First Man

WGA mixed it up for both awards, as Can You Ever Forgive Me? beat out BlacKkKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk. It seems as though Beale Street is out. BlacKkKlansman took the BAFTA award, and has Spike Lee in play. Writers were bound to love Lee Israel’s story, but with Spike Lee likely losing out in Best Director and general Academy voters likely wanting to award him somewhere, it seems like this is a case where the Oscars and WGA could differ.

Best Supporting Actor

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Who will win: Mahershala Ali — Green Book
Who could win: Richard E. Grant — Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who should win: I’m not too invested in this category
Who should’ve been nominated: Steven Yeun — Burning

Mahershala Ali has won every single precursor, and the big one was the BAFTA win over British actor Richard E. Grant. Grant is still in it, as he’s been the campaign darling this year, but it’d be rather unprecedented for Ali to lose after winning so much.

Best Supporting Actress

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Who will win: Regina King — If Beale Street Could Talk
Who could win: Rachel Weisz — The Favourite
Who should win: Marina de Tavira — Roma (Since, Weisz and Stone are lead performances)
Who should’ve been nominated: Elizabeth Debicki — Widows

This is such a bizarre category this year, as the SAG winner, Emily Blunt for her A Quiet Place performance, wasn’t even nominated. BAFTA went with Rachel Weisz, which gives her a solid boost, but BAFTA is often inclined to tip toward their own. Weisz is still a decent bet, but she also lost to Blunt at SAG and might split some votes with co-star Emma Stone. So, Regina King could ride the critic accolades, as well as the Globes win, the incredible respect for her and the admiration for the film, to a win. But this is one of the more open categories, as even Marina de Tavira winning wouldn’t be shocking — or undeserved.

Best Lead Actor

20th Century Fox/Courtesy

Who will win: Rami Malek — Bohemian Rhapsody
Who could win: Christian Bale — Vice
Who should win: Bradley Cooper — A Star Is Born
Who should’ve been nominated: Ryan Gosling — First Man

Like Mahershala Ali, Rami Malek has won every precursor. Christian Bale also won at the Globes, but he really needed one other award, voted on by those in the industry, to truly compete. And with Bohemian Rhapsody winning the most guild awards, this is Malek’s.

Best Lead Actress

Fox Searchlight/Courtesy

Who will win: Olivia Colman — The Favourite
Who could win: Glenn Close — The Wife
Who should win: Olivia Colman — The Favourite
Who should’ve been nominated: Toni Collette — Hereditary

Glenn Close won the SAG award, while Olivia Colman won the BAFTA award. Close made a rousing speech at the Globes and has decades of love behind her, while Colman has been an absolute hysterical delight at awards shows and leads a film nominated for ten awards, including Best Picture. It’s a tough competition, and ultimately, Colman could’ve picked up steam at just the right moment.

Best Director

Netflix/Courtesy

Who will win: Alfonso Cuarón — Roma
Who could win: Spike Lee — BlacKkKlansman
Who should win: Alfonso Cuarón — Roma
Who should’ve been nominated: Debra Granik — Leave No Trace

Alfonso Cuarón won the DGA and BAFTA awards. It’d be quite amazing for him to lose this.

Best Picture

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Who will win: The Favourite
Who could win: Honestly, anything at this point, but Roma and BlacKkKlansman are particularly close
Who should win: Black Panther
Who should’ve been nominated: First Man

As noted by many, this is a wide open race, with the major guilds awarding completely different films for what seems to be the first time ever. And that means that each film will have a major precedent to overcome. But The Favourite has been lurking, and if Roma doesn’t take this in the first round of voting, the preferential ballot may turn out in Yorgos Lanthimos’ favor, as there hasn’t been any notable hit against it. The film would, indeed, be the first since 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy to win Best Picture without a DGA nomination, but The Favourite ended up with a Best Director Oscar nomination, while Driving Miss Daisy didn’t. Roma has so much to overcome — and it absolutely could overcome all of it — but the Academy has split Best Director and Best Picture in four of the last six years, so it could also end up in the camp of films like La La Land, The Revenant, Life of Pi, and Cuarón’s previous, Gravity, all of which won Best Director and Best Cinematography. And it was 63 years before Spotlight that a film won Best Picture with only two total wins, so BlacKkKlansman would likely need a win in Best Original Score as well as Best Adapted Screenplay to take this. Green Book does seem right there, after the PGA win, but it’s missing both Best Director and SAG ensemble nominations, which, together, are a rather large hill to climb. This all hinges on The Favourite winning Best Original Screenplay. If Green Book pulls out that award, it could break some records. But if The Favourite takes it — and if it wins any or multiple of Best Film Editing, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Lead Actress — watch out.