Don vs. Ron: How DeSantis Must Play his Cards Right in 2024
DeSantis has everything to lose and nothing to gain by challenging the former President in the Republican primary
Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have seen an increased spotlight on state governors and city mayors as they were given larger roles in handling a crisis that impacted each region differently. Some governors, such as Gavin Newsom of California and Andrew Cuomo of New York, failed miserably at maintaining public support during their pandemic response, while others have carved out national recognition among both sides of the aisle for doing remarkably well. Chief among these is Ron DeSantis, the Republican Governor of Florida.
While he needs no introduction to many in the Republican party or those who follow politics somewhat closely, DeSantis is not yet a household name. He’s not yet involved heavily in national politics and if you don’t live in the state of Florida, he has hardly any impact on your life whatsoever. And while 2024 is still a long ways away, DeSantis is generating more discussion in conservative circles than any other candidate except for one… Donald Trump.
It is for this reason that DeSantis has everything in lose in 2024. In a party that is still majorly under the influence of Donald Trump, any challenger looking to obtain the Republican nomination must play his game. If Trump runs, challenging him could spell political suicide, especially for an up and coming star like DeSantis. In order to secure a nomination in a race where Trump was running, DeSantis would have to simultaneously remain in good graces with Trump while also pitching himself as the cleaned up version of the 45th President to voters. To do this effectively seems to be nearly impossible given how Trump goes after his political opponents.
In reality, if Trump does run in 2024, the nomination is all but his. Any challenger risks alienating themselves from the majority of the conservative voter base for years to come, even if they challenge him in a respectful way. Trump simply holds too much power over the party and its voters for someone to come away from that political battle unscathed assuming they would even be able to beat him in a primary, which I consider highly unlikely.
The better option for DeSantis is to play his cards around whatever Trump decides to do. If Trump runs, DeSantis should lay low and support him, because I think Trump will see this as a sign of loyalty, which we know the former president highly values. We’ve seen DeSantis respectfully decline to challenge a well-known Republican before when he dropped out of Florida’s Senate race in 2016 after hearing that Marco Rubio would seek re-election. By remaining by Trump’s side, the 42 year old Governor would cement himself a very real possibility of being chosen as Trump’s running mate in 2024. This allows DeSantis to become a household name during the election cycle and possibly during a 4 year term as Vice President.
For someone who is as new to politics as DeSantis is, there should be no hurry to run for President. As we’ve seen in the past, it’s all about timing when running for the high office. If DeSantis splits from Trump at the crucial juncture that 2024 could possibly be, he risks his entire political future in a scenario where Trump will presumably have moved out of politics by the 2028 cycle. If DeSantis plays his cards right, I have every reason to assume that he will one day win the Republican nomination and possibly, the White House, even if that day is not in 2024.
