Can the Chinese Communist Party survive the wave of pro-democracy movements in South East Asia?
With China’s influence and global standing on the rise, and in the aftermath of the notorious Hong Kong protests of 2019, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) grip on power is starting to look untenable …
It’s no secret that China’s economic standing has increased dramatically in recent decades, largely thanks to it becoming a global manufacturing leader. And, as manufacturing jobs shift to the East, and the prosperity of Western nations has continued to wane in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, China has continued to prosper and its political power has increased in lock step.
In 2019 we witnessed an important chapter of China’s re-integration of Hong Kong; a brutal process, involving a bloody crackdown on dissent and the popular pro-democracy movement. Before the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated lockdowns hit the world, it was common to see running pitched battles in Hong Kong, with police firing live rounds, tear gas and deploying water cannons, and protestors setting up barricades, throwing petrol bombs, firing fireworks and vandalising government buildings.
The intensity of these battles may have ebbed and flowed, however Beijing’s focus never waned from its ultimate goal — to integrate Hong Kong under the Communist Party’s (total) control and its famous so called ‘Great Internet Firewall’ — in effect undermining any and all democratic processes within Hong Kong.
The outcome of this great political battle is that many prominent dissidents have decided to leave Hong Kong. Some had even previously relocated from Shanghai for similar reasons, and now realised their freedoms had once again been taken in their new home. And many of those dissidents see Taiwan, the Republic of China, as a natural new home. However Beijing’s intentions in the South China Sea and beyond include removing the sovereignty of Taiwan also, under its so called ‘One China’ policy.
Unfortunately for the CCP, Taiwan is an independent democratic nation who has chosen to elect a pro-independence government both in 2016 and also 2020. Resisting pressure from Beijing, some Western nations, including the United Kingdom and the United States, openly support the Taiwanese people’s overwhelming desire for independence. But how long until Beijing starts to really apply pressure to get Taiwan under its control?
And let’s not forget the types of freedoms the Taiwanese would have to give up to become part of ‘One China’ — the freedom to elect political representatives from a broad political spectrum (not just those handpicked by the CCP); the freedom to post content critical of their political leadership online (even when abroad). And the freedom to move across China and emigrate without the consent of the Communist Party.
During the COVID-19 pandemic criticism of the CCP within China reached new levels, and videos of mainland Chinese dissidents being visited by the police after outbursts against the Communist Party have become commonplace, such as lawyer Chen Qiushi and citizen journalist Fang Bin:
It is clear that the CCP utilises fear and intimidation to suppress acts of dissent domestically, alongside comprehensive surveillance and online censorship powers; not only applying pressure on those who are critical of Beijing, but also their friends and families. It is common for dissidents to find themselves isolated for speaking out, and that is exactly the intention. Now with China’s notorious citizen scoring system being rolled out, it will become even more difficult and risky to speak out within the rising superpower.
But the inescapable fact, as echoed recently by pre-eminent Chinese dissident and world renowned artist Ai Weiwei, is that the Chinese Communist Party has no legitimacy; it has no democratic mandate; it maintains its power through successful economic policy that placates frustration domestically and with careful international diplomacy; in particular its (official) non-interference policy.
However, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, attitudes towards China and the CCP have hardened. And there are renewed calls for more democracy in Asia, this time in Thailand, with large protests calling for the end of the notoriously harsh anti-defamation laws against the Thai monarchy, and with support from prominent Hong Kong pro-democracy activists, including the outspoken Beijing critic Joshua Wong.
So, during these tumultuous times, will Beijing be able to maintain its control over South East Asia? Or will China have to evolve its politics to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing political landscape with calls for more participatory democracy and freedoms of speech?
The Psychograph
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