Polls Aren’t Votes: Don’t Stop Fighting

Patrick Tompkins
Oct 24, 2020 · 4 min read
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Image Courtesy: Gallup (news.gallup.com)

Lately, I have been quite optimistic about this presidential election's potential outcome between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. In fact, recently, I wrote an entire piece dedicated to the absolute bloodbath coming for the Republican Party.

But don’t mistake that confidence with complacency. This election represents an existential threat to the country. My panic and anxiety remain at record levels. My assuredness acts only as a way to strengthen my resolve. That is how you should view these last final days as well.

10 days. That’s all we have left. 240 hours. We need to use every minute of that time to convince every voter to vote for Joe Biden and every non-voter to care enough and then to vote for Joe Biden.

The only way we will beat back neo-fascism from taking over the country is to send Donald Trump packing in a historical manner. That means a landslide with a record voter turnout that we haven’t seen in more than a half-century.

Current State of the Race

In 2016, Donald Trump swept almost all battleground states as well as traditionally Democratic states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Razor-thin margin wins are still wins, and Trump picked up an unexpected amount of Electoral Votes to push him well over the 270 that he needed.

With a renewed focus on state-level polling, and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris spending significant time in battleground states that Hillary Clinton neglected in 2016, things are not looking very optimistic for Donald Trump with only a few days to go before Election Day.

Biden is currently polling ahead of Trump in all major battleground states (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI). Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas are all in play this election. These traditionally red states are competitive for the first time thanks to changing demographics and a terrible Republican incumbent.

According to FiveThirtyEight, election simulations show Joe Biden winning an average of 87 of out 100 times. Donald Trump’s path to victory is tiny and getting smaller. Something truly tectonic would need to happen in the next few days to change this race's trajectory.

Anxious Deja Vu

We’ve been here before. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was polling far ahead of Donald Trump in national polls and showed enough state polling strength to forecast an easy victory. But it wasn’t meant to be. Trump’s support was larger than what was registering in the polls.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Hillary had a 71% chance of winning the election in 2016. She was projected to win over 300 Electoral Votes and easily walk away with the keys to the White House. In the end, Trump flipped several Midwest states and Florida by a few thousand votes and shocked the world.

Some have the same fear of that coming true in 2020 as well; that maybe a lot of Trump supporters are waiting in the shadows, not participating in polls but are willing and ready to cast their vote once again for the sitting President.

The real silent majority is the middle of the country that observed the last four years and is ready to move on. Trump supporters are out and proud now after his win, so there is no doubt that such a loud group of people is not registering in current polling.

Pretend Like We’re Losing

Democrats and all other Americans need to keep their eye on the ball and do everything they can to stay focused on the endgame. Call it delusional. Call it conviction or just sheer resilience. Whatever it is, please find it and feel it. This election is too important to think we have it in the bag.

And we cannot win this race by a thin margin either. It is too significant to be close. Do not let up right before the finish line. Hillary Clinton did that, and it cost us dearly. We need to learn from our mistakes. Appreciate our lead now, but work to ensure it remains that way.

If we stop pushing, if we stop fighting for every vote and this gets close, Donald Trump has seated hundreds of conservative judges that he will surely employ to his benefit. How could a President legally steal an election? If we let this get close, you’ll be able to see the answer to that question play out in real-time.

Trust me; it is vitally important that we don’t let that scenario come to pass. Every American has to do their part to flex their constitutional muscle. In times of cataclysmic change, that’s what we do, with the hope that our democracy is truly self-correcting; like it has been advertised all these years.

Yes, it sucks that we have to work twice as hard to overrule the Electoral College. It shouldn’t be that way. So what. This is the game we have been forced to play. If enough of us come together to fight for an idea, anything is possible.

Patrick Tompkins

Written by

Opinions about politics, leadership, government, kaizen, among other things. Editor of The Purple Giraffe & Leadership You. https://twitter.com/the_second_pat

The Purple Giraffe

The Purple Giraffe reports on what is happening today; with a dynamic insight into politics, policy, leadership, culture, social issues, and the economy.

Patrick Tompkins

Written by

Opinions about politics, leadership, government, kaizen, among other things. Editor of The Purple Giraffe & Leadership You. https://twitter.com/the_second_pat

The Purple Giraffe

The Purple Giraffe reports on what is happening today; with a dynamic insight into politics, policy, leadership, culture, social issues, and the economy.

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