Jaylon Smith’s possible landing spots

Heading into the College Bowl season at the end of 2015, Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith was on the verge of playing his final college game before entering the NFL as a probable top five pick. Smith had racked up 225 tackles in his sophomore and junior seasons on his way to becoming just the second man to win both the High School and College Butkus Awards for the nation’s top linebacker.

Then, during the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State, Smith picked up a gruesome knee injury, tearing both the ACL and LCL. In today’s sporting landscape, this injury has become so common that the man on the street understands that the rehabilitation process is arduous but not usually career threatening. After all, we watched Adrian Peterson rush for over 2000 yards despite tearing his ACL a little over eight months before that magical season.

The problem for Smith — who still sat atop many draft boards despite the injury — came when the combine physical was performed. Immediately rumours abound that the injury was worse than a usual ligament tear. Before this, our own Ollie Connolly still had Smith at the top of his big board, as did other luminaries such as ESPN’s Todd McShay. However, teams started removing him from their first round boards and some from their boards all together after concerns of nerve damage around the affected knee surfaced. This complication has had a serious effect on his draft stock.

Talent-wise, no team would doubt Smith. He can play any of the linebacker positions in any system. While he performed as a middle linebacker at Notre Dame for the most part — and many project to play at the position at the NFL level -, his athleticism and range may well mean he is best suited to playing as an outside linebacker in a 4–3 scheme. He can play all three downs due to his ability against the run and incredible coverage skills too. He has the ability to be another Luke Kuechly.

But it all comes back to the problem of just how damaged the knee is. The general consensus is that he will miss a good portion, if not all, of the 2016 season, but some fear the damage may mean he never actually sees the field in a meaningful capacity at all.

It all comes down to how Smith’s next medical examination goes. This month, almost seven weeks after that combine check-up, Smith will be checked over by a range of doctors and medical staff from the NFL and numerous teams. If the nerve damage looks to be healed, or healing, Smith’s NFL future looks promising once again. The problem is that since it is almost certain he will have to redshirt his rookie season, many teams at the top of the draft looking for an instant impact player are unlikely to pull the trigger, no matter the talent.

Smith took out an insurance policy that will cover him for dropping out of the first round of the draft due to injury that will pay $700,000, plus another $100,000 per pick after that up to a maximum of $5 million. How much of that will be claimed is an interesting side note. There is recent history of highly rated prospects being in this situation. A year ago, highly thought of Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu suffered a similar knee injury that wiped out his rookie season and saw him drop all the way to the seventh round where Cleveland eventually took him, resulting in him collecting on a similar insurance policy. As a warning, Ekpre-Olomu was released at the weekend by the Browns.

Assuming the knee receives more positive reviews this time around — and Smith posted that he was now leg-pressing 600 pounds in the gym — where would he be taken?

As I have already pointed out, the teams at the top of the draft need immediate impact. That would probably rule out any team that did not make the playoffs this year — the top 20 picks — from taking him. After that, there are a few contenders who may be willing to think more long term and take a shot on a top five talent that may just need some patience to become a force in this league.

The Cincinnati Bengals, who pick at 24, are a team who rarely rush a rookie into the lineup and have a need at linebacker. They would be an ideal spot for Smith to learn from an experienced staff without any expectations on him other than to regain his health and learn the way of the NFL.

Following them at 26 are the Seattle Seahawks, who have just lost Bruce Irvin in free agency. They have a huge need on the offensive line, but they have for most of the Pete Carroll-John Schneider era, and it is a very Seahawks move to take the pick most would not expect. The prospect of bringing in Smith while Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright are under contract means they have a cheaper, talented option to learn the game this year by watching some of the best players before stepping into the lineup when he is ready.

After that, the Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos all have needs at the position and may well be happy to also bide their time on a talent they rarely have the chance to draft. All three have needs at the position and smart front offices who will put talent above all else.

Personally, I don’t see how Smith will drop past any of these five teams. Smart franchises who regularly pick in the later in the first round know they do not often have the chance to select a prospect as highly rated as Smith and one of them will pounce on the opportunity.

My feeling is that as long as Smith is given happier news on his April 14th checkup, he will start to appear at the back-end of the first round in many mock drafts, with the Seahawks being favorites to move for him. He should not have to worry too much about calling in that insurance policy.