Mock Draft 1.0: The I Hate Mock Drafts Edition

Anyone who has read or listened to me for some time understands I don’t like mock drafts. They’re a necessary evil and I get them. Mock drafts equal page views, and in this ever-changing media world page views equals gold. Some writers even spend months filling out seven round mock drafts that are often null and void by the time we reach the fifth pick of the draft.

Personally, I like working on my personal board and my top-100. My goal each season is to hit 75% — 75 players from my top-100 selected in the first 100 picks of the draft.

Mocks early on in the process do serve a purpose. They give the readers an idea of where players are currently values, teams needs and introduce the individual skill-sets and scheme fits of players.

So here we are, the start of the draft season and my first mock draft, 4,000 words of mock draft goodness: Mock Draft 1.0 — The I Hate Mock Drafts Edition.

1- Tennessee Titans — Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

The Titans need to select whomever they deem the best overall prospect in the class regardless of position or need. Joey Bosa brings an immediate edge presence as a run defender and pass rusher. His best asset is his versatility. He can lineup outside on first and second down, and kick inside when the Titans move to their sub-package on third downs and in obvious passing situations. His combination of power, explosion, length, motor and down-to-down versatility make him a prime defensive building block.

There’s also an argument to be made to take Laremy Tunsil and shift Taylor Lewan over to his more natural right side. Or even to take Jaylon Ramsey, who may grade out as the best overall player in the draft.

For me, the Titans need to find a way to disrupt quarterbacks in an AFC South that features Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles and the Texans with the ammunition to draft a QB or recruit one via free agency. Tennessee finished 3rd in the league in adjusted sack rate in 2015. Building upon that with Bosa would give the Titans a foundational unit, their front seven, and something to take the pressure of Marcus Mariota

2- Cleveland Browns — Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

For the first time in a long time the Browns get first dibs on the quarterback of their choosing (unless someone gives a godfather offer to Tennessee to jump above Cleveland).

The decision is a two-way race between Jared Goff (Cal) and Carson Wentz. Right now, we have Wentz graded ahead of Goff.

Wentz has no elite traits but does everything at a very-high level. He ran a pro-style offense while with North Dakota State, ran the offense from a huddle and the line of scrimmage, he can make throws to all levels of the field, makes quality pre and post snap decisions, does a good job with the mental aspects of the game; getting the ball out hot, manipulating safeties with his eyes etc. and above all, displays the ability to be a CEO of an organization. He is smart, older, a senior and has been in and around a professional culture.

Since the now infamous 2014 quarterback draft class (I can’t believe it’s already infamous) I have thought about this side of a position a lot. The ability to command a meeting room, conduct offseason practices, get your offensive line together at 3am to work on protections. These are all the abilities Derek Carr displayed before the 2014 draft (that and truly elite arm talent). Carr had a young family, was 23, had been around a professional athlete (his brother) and took the mental side of the game incredibly seriously. He controlled his entire offense though hand signals at the line of scrimmage, and away from football his sole focus was his wife and child. He was mature, a CEO type and has had remarkable early success turning the culture around in Oakland.

The same could not be said for Johnny Manziel. I loved Manizel coming out of A&M. He was a pure playmaker, had elite arm talent, was arrogant and he wanted to be great. Non of that came to fruition at the next level. In fact, everything listed above about Carr is the opposite of what Manziel demonstrated throughout his transition from college to the draft and since he has entered the league. No matter what the talent, he was the wrong fit for a franchise demanding leaders. Carr was the perfect fit for Oakland.

The difference between Goff and Wentz is not so wide. But Goff is younger (21), a redshirt junior, ran a half-field Air Raid offense, did not call his own plays and checked protections and play calls with his coaching staff at the line of scrimmage. I love the talent of Goff, his arm talent, guts, release and feel for the game. But the Browns need more than that.

New Browns head coach Hue Jackson is coming from an organization with a quarterback similar to Wentz. Andy Dalton is often not flashy. He is a good athlete, has a good arm, throws with anticipation and runs a hybrid-multiple offense. Wentz is a similar player, with a high command of a pro-style offense directly out of college, unlike Dalton. As an overall player on and off the field, I think Wentz makes great sense for Cleveland. However, if the Browns are looking at straight up throwing potential, Goff has the edge.

3- San Diego Chargers, Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

I do buy into a ‘succession plan’ in San Diego. Both general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Mike McCoy need a playoff run. The Chargers offensive line flat-out stunk last year (31st DVOA), with Philip Rivers under constant duress throughout the season. The draft’s best left tackle is available to the Chargers at three and it’s best not to overthink this one.

4- Dallas Cowboys, DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon

Now here’s a scenario where I can see the Cowboys looking to the future, grabbing Jared Goff and sitting him behind Tony Romo for a couple of years. I think ideally, with one of the QBs likely to be available, the Cowboys should look to move back, collect assets and build depth on both sides of the ball. Of course, to move back you need a partner to move up, with quarterback needy teams further back in the draft and one of the two highest graded QBs likely to be available it’s certainly plausible.

However, there are no trades in mock drafts (for reasons that remain unclear), so I have Dallas taking Buckner and moving on from Greg Hardy in free agency.

Buckner is a height-weight-speed freak, who is a perfect five-technique. He is not as natural a pass-rusher as Hardy, but he will help shut down the run game. Buckner has elite skills at the POA, aggressive hands, great short area quickness, can stack and shed lineman and has a good nose for the ball. At 6–7 he can sometimes play a little high, but can make up for it with his powerful hands.

5- Jacksonville Jaguars, Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State

Ramsey is a corner/safety hybrid and may be the best overall player in the class. He isn’t just an elite athlete, he is a world-class athlete with legitimate olympic hopes as a long jumper.

He is a perfect fit for Jacksonville who are crying out for secondary help. He is best suited to a base cover-3 system where he can mix and match his talents as a corner and safety, playing outside, inside and in centerfield. Ramsey is an elite coverage player, with good press-man skills, natural size, power and an elite closing burst.

At five the Jags have a chance to get perhaps the best player in the draft and the best scheme fit in the draft, at a position of high priority. They are praying Ramsey gets to them.

6- Baltimore Ravens, Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

The Ravens have a number of avenues open to them at six. They could look at offensive tackle (Ronnie Stanley), cornerback (Vernon Hargreaves) or take a gamble on Jaylon Smith who is my top overall prospect in this class, though suffered a devastating knee injury in the bowl season.

Despite the changes and injuries on defense, I have the Ravens addressing their receiving corps.

With first round pick Breshad Perriman not playing a snap last year, the Ravens could double down and introduce two new playmakers to Joe Flacco and the offense, opening up the offense and combining a big-play receiver with a move the chains target.

Make no mistake, Treadwell can be a down the field threat despite his lack of top-level speed, but he’s best as a down-to-down threat, winning at the stem of a route, catching off target balls and moving the chains with some big run after the catch potential. With Joe Flacco’s accuracy issues, and Perriman as a home-run threat, it would be a fun one-two punch and a bold move from Ozzie Newsome and company.

7- San Francisco 49ers, Jared Goff, QB, Cal

This is why I’m not a fan of mock drafts. I can’t see how Goff will slide to seven yet here we are.

The Niners seem ready to move on from Colin Kaepernick and Kaepernick looks like he wants out also. The quarterback with the most upside in the class is sat their for Chip Kelly and Trent Baalke to nab and hit reset the reset button.

As I mentioned with Goff earlier, I love his ability as a natural thrower. He has a very smooth, quick release and the ball really explodes of his hand. He shows the ability to throw with anticipation, will throw into tight windows, has good ball location and will stand in under pressure and take a hit in order to deliver a strike.

The downside with Goff is his projection from college to the NFL due to the offense he played in, some shaky decision-making skills (will often make throws that simply aren’t there). One knock on Goff is the number of sacks he took while at Cal. during my tape study I put a great percentage of those down to the talent of his offensive line and his receivers inability to get of press-coverage.

8- Miami Dolphins, Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida

The Dolphins pass defense was consistently shredded on the back-end throughout the season. They need help at linebacker, in their secondary and could use an extra edge defender due to the injury sustained by Cameron Wake.

Hargreaves currently grades out as our second best corner. He is an elite cover corner in press and off-man coverage, with good instincts and a natural ability to turn, locate the ball and make plays. The knock on Hargreaves is his size and his propensity to play the running game at half speed.

9- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

Stanley at nine would be a great pickup for the Bucs. After grabbing Donovan Smith at the top of the second round last year, the Bucs would solidify book-end tackles for Jameis Winston moving forward. Stanley is as natural a fit at right tackle as he is on the left side and does a quality job in pass protection and as a run blocker. He is a natural fit in a zone based offense and does an outstanding job of picking up stunts, twists and delayed blitzes.

10- New York Giants, Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky

The Giants have to find a way to pressure the passer next season. They ranked a woeful 30th in adjusted sack rate in 2015 and had the least number of ‘pressures’ of any team in the league.

Spence is a boom-or-bust type prospect. He is an explosive edge rusher who can play with his hand in the dirt or stood up as a linebacker. He wins in multiple ways, with an elite first step, speed to power and an array of pass rushing moves. Spence dominated the senior bowl and crushed inferior talent while at Eastern Kentucky.

While Spence possess terrific upside, and could vault into the top-four by draft day, he also comes with issues. On the field, he can at times get stuck on blocks, over pursue and consistently jump offside. Off the field, Spence failed multiple drug tests (ecstasy) while at Ohio State, resulting in him being kicked off the team and having to drop down a level to Eastern Kentucky.

11- Chicago Bears, Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA

Chicago will complete their transition to a team predominantly running a three man front this offseason and they could certainly look at an edge player in the first round. They also need to address their linebacking situation and they need to find a player who can play both inside and outside in a modern age that has teams running out base nickel or dime defenses.

Fortunately for the Bears there are two available at the top of the first round with Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith both available. Smith is a better sideline-to-sideline player and Jack is better in coverage. Both suffered significant injuries last year but Jack’s was earlier in the season and he’ll be able to go through a full offseason program.

12- New Orleans Saints, A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama

A’Shawn is one of my favorite players to watch on tape in this entire class. Sure, he has some technical issues; he doesn’t always play with the appropriate pad level, he pushes the pocket but doesn’t frequently collapse it and although he plays with supreme effort, he was a part of a historically great rotation at Alabama this year.

All that being said, the Saints have to get more solid up front. They gave up a league high 4.9 yards per rush attempt and Robinson will help immediately help that. He is a huge body who can two-gap, own the point of attack and constantly find the ball.

13- Philadelphia Eagles, Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss

The Eagles shift to a four man defensive front opens up some fun possibilities. They’ll take a look at Vernon Butler, Jarran Reed, Jaylon Smith and Shaq Lawson. Perhaps the pick with the biggest upside is taking the best height-weight-speed defensive lineman in this class.

We always hear ‘freak athlete’ throughout the draft season, but there’s really no other way to describe Robert Nkemdiche who is an explosive interior player with an elite first step. With the Eagles already having Bennie Logan in place as a true one-technique, pairing him with an explosive three-technique whose sole purpose in life is destroy lineman’s careers and hit quarterbacks would be extremely fun.

The Eagles, and every team, will need to do their due diligence on Nkemdiche who had a worrying incident involving synthetic marijuana earlier in the year.

14- Oakland Raiders, Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame

I love the fit here for Oakland. Recent reports suggest that Smith will play at some point in the 2016 season, though when is still undetermined. Smith is an exceptionally athletic player who has everything teams are looking for in a modern linebacker; he’s versatile, can line up outside or inside, can rush the passer, play in space, is a twitchy athlete and never has to come off the field. He’s a similar player to Jamie Collins or Ryan Shazier.

The Raiders young core continues to develop and Smith could immediately slot into any of the starting roles in their linebacking corps.

15- L.A Rams, Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

Is it too easy to mock a franchise moving to a new city drafting a quarterback?

Let’s build the case.

The Rams clearly have a need at quarterback, and after nailing top pick after top pick it’s time for them to try to hit on a quarterback. Lynch is what baseball scouts what call a ‘toolsy’ player. He is not too dissimilar to Blake Bortles. He is the best height-weight-speed quarterback in the class, with good mobility inside and outside the pocket and elite arm strength. Lynch is viewed by many as a ‘project’ due to the lack of any pro-concepts in his college offense and his inability to make basic rhythm throws to the intermediate level.

Lynch is a tantalizing prospect due to his size and arm talent, but the worrying accuracy concerns (number one grade trait for QBs) are enough to have him as our third graded quarterback. For the Rams, they have a solid roster and should swing for the fences with Lynch.

16- Detroit Lions, Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville

Rankins is climbing up draft boards after a monstrous week at the Senior Bowl that have seen some compare him to Aaron Donald. Rankins is slightly undersized, similar to Donald, but has good first step explosion and the ability to overpower interior lineman and collapse the pocket. Rankins wins constantly one-on-one and will immediately draw double-teams at the next level. Only issue on tape thus far is up and down effort. When Rankins is locked in he can take over a game, but at times he seems to check out.

17- Atlanta Falcons, Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson

Lawson is an explosive edge-rusher and a former teammate of the Falcons 2015 first round pick Vick Beasley. The Falcons finished last in sacks this season and are in dire need of a player who can win one-vs-one or draw double-teams.

Lawson had big production at Clemson and it shows up on tape as well. He is a speed-to-power player who wins with violent hands and shows the ability to counter-move if he does not win with his first step.

18- Indianapolis Colts, Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

The Colts did a disservice to their quarterback room last year by not upgrading their offensive line. Andrew Luck was beaten up and knocked out of the season. They have to find a way to protect their franchise player and Conklin provides that.

Conklin sports prototypical size for a starting NFL tackle and has great feet in space. He is a mauler in the run game who dominated at the POA this year for Michigan State. In pass-protection there are still areas to improve: far too often he is beat to the punch inside and gives up simple plays by being beat off the snap. Overall, he does a solid job mirroring and pushing speed rushers around the corner, but he’s a work in progress in pass-pro while he’s a ready-made run blocker in year one.

19- Buffalo Bills, Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State

Decker is an incredible athlete for the position who would perfectly compliment the hybrid offense the Bills have installed with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Decker is a quality angle-blocker who doesn’t bully people at the POA but stays on blocks through the whistle. He’s not going to light anyone up in the run game, but he’ll do his job and do it extremely well.

20- New York Jets, Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama

By our grading system, Ragland is a top-10 prospect in this year’s class but he fits is an interesting question.

Ragland wants to be seen as a 34 OLB, while he suits much better inside in a 34 or as a weakside linebacker in a 43. He posses tremendous diagnose and attack instincts, good sideline-to-sideline range, an elite ability to sort through traffic, in the box, and find the ball and is an elite tackler.

The only issue with Ragland is his skill-set in this era. In previous eras he would be in with a shout of being a top-five pick. The question is: can play on third downs and how can he play on third downs? If teams believe he can cover tight ends or running backs on third downs then he’ll absolutely be a first round pick and could go shortly after the top-10. However, if teams see him as a susceptible third down player then he’ll likely slide.

21- Washington Redskins, Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech

Butler is another player who demolished opponents at the Senior Bowl and blew coaching staffs away. He fits perfectly with what Washington want to do; build inside-outside and develop a strong defensive front and offensive line before they add skill position players and find their longterm answer at quarterback.

Butler can be a ‘flash’ player on tape. He displays the ability to put interior lineman on skates and collapsing the pocket on one play, then he gets stood up immediately on the next play.

22- Houston Texans, Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State

Elliot is far and away the best running back in the class and his blend of size-speed-vision is a perfect fit the Texans stretch offense. Elliot runs beautifully with power and balance behind his pads. He shows the ability to get in and explode out of creases, but doesn’t have true breakaway speed.

Two other things I love about Elliot: 1) He is far more powerful when you re-study than watch on T.V. he consistently gains yards after initial contact. 2) He is a threat in the passing game as a pass-catcher and blocker. Elliot puts his body on the line in protection and does an exceptional job with his blitz pickups.

23- Minnesota Vikings, Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State

The Vikings maintain a work in progress although their most important player is at the back-end of his prime. They have needs at both guard spots and a big need at wide receiver. They may look at Josh Doctson, Will Fuller or gamble on Braxton Miller, but I feel their need at guard and improving their running game outweighs their needs at receiver.

Whitehair was a three-year starter at Kansas State and is ready to start and improve the Vikings right away. He is another player who is more of an angle-blocker than one who overwhelms players with power.

24- Cincinnati Bengals, Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State

Lee is the latest in the line of modern linebackers who are terrific athletes, with great short area quickness, explosiveness, versatility and rage against the run and pass. Lee is undersized for a traditional OLB and may be best suited in two linebacker sets alongside Vontaze Burfict.

25- Pittsburgh Steelers, Mackenzie Alexander, CB, Clemson

Pittsburgh desperately needs secondary help and Alexander represents great value at this point. Alexander is a top-end speed burner but he has outstanding movement skills and is just as comfortable in press-technique as he is in off-man coverage. His limitation is his size, and issues locating the ball. He consistently loses track of the ball in flight, and often times gets caught on pump fakes and double-moves.

26- Seattle Seahawks, Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama

Jarran Reed is a two-gapping, run stuffing, savant. He is a joy to watch work inside as he owns the POA, bullies lineman and plays through the whistle. Reed is a run stopping specialist and he fits perfectly into what Seattle is looking for. He lacks the first step quickness to be a one-gap player and consistently hit the quarterback. But he pushes the pocket and creates awkward throwing platforms for the quarterback, while shutting down the run game.

27- Green Bay Packers, Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

It’s easy to oversimplify the Packers season and boil their struggles down to their receiving corps. They have issues they need to address on both sides of the ball and throughout the organization. But this spot lines up perfectly with my board.

Doctson excels at what the Packers were so unsuccessful with this season, creating separation from press-man coverage and making the opponent pay if they choose to play zone. He is a large, reliable target who does a quality job of tracking the ball down the field and making tough contested catches.

28- Kansas City Chiefs, Von Bell, S, Ohio State

With Eric Berry and Hussain Abdullah both set to be free agents the Chiefs need to look longterm at safety. I anticipate the Chiefs will bring Berry back and may even look at the franchise tag, but they can supplement him and get more creative on the back-end of their defense if they add Bell to the mix.

29- Arizona Cardinals, Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor

Billings is an example of how deep and impressive this class is along the defensive line. He is an exceptional athlete for the position with rare short area quickness and the ability to win at the POA in multiple ways. He beats lineman to the punch and plays with heavy hands. By the time the draft is here he may have moved himself above some interior lineman.

30- Carolina Panthers, Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

The Panthers have a chance to go from one of the weakest skill position groups in the NFC to one of the most young and talented. Next year will see the return of Kelvin Benjamin alongside Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen. They also have a chance to choose from a numbers of talented receivers at the bottom of the first round. Braxton Miller is an intriguing option because of all the inventive and fun things they could do with him. However, as a pure pass catcher I think Fuller is the best option.

Fuller, like Treadwell, is not an elite down the field threat but is a legitimate chain mover. He is excels at winning at the point of the catch and winning 50–50 balls and consistently catches balls that are off-target.

31- Denver Broncos, Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State

After a championship season the Broncos have a bunch of players they need to re-sign or may need to replace. Von Miller needs a longterm deal, Malik Jackson is a free agent, so are Danny Trevathan, Antonio Smith, Evan Mathis, Ryan Harris and Brock Osweiler.

I opted to select the top overall player remaining on my board, Emmanuel Ogbah. Conor Allison did a good job of breaking down Ogbah in our ‘introducing’ series. He is a versatile player who can play in three or four man fronts and has played some snaps out of a two-point stance. He is a relentless player who shows very good speed to power without an elite first step. He’s not going to beat players off the snap but he can win with a variety of moves, counter moves and is flexible enough to bend the edge and consistently hit the quarterback.