The 32: Patriots fly, Ravens cry, Bucs have hope, Vikings choke
By Andrew Symes, Lead NFL Writer
The NFL finally has a look of normality about it again, with the final bye week of the season out of the way. Every team has now played ten games and, for me, the Thanksgiving Day games start the season. Up to now, every team has been jockeying for position. It is not possible to win the Super Bowl in the first ten weeks of the season, but it is certainly possible to play yourself out of any chance of being there at all. These final six weeks are where the pretenders start to fall away and the class of the league begins to separate itself, regardless of schedules. The best teams simply win from here on out.
I believe there are now ten teams that are completely ruled out of the playoff race, with a further seven teams guaranteed of a spot in the postseason. That leaves the remaining fifteen teams playing for five places in my mind. And that will narrow down each week. This week, my focus is on the Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots.
Press the reset button
No chance of the playoffs this season
32. Cleveland Browns (Last week: 32) (Record: 2–8)
31. Tennessee Titans (31) (2–8)
30. San Diego Chargers (27) (2–8)
29. Baltimore Ravens (30) (3–7)
28. San Francisco 49ers (24) (3–7)
27. Detroit Lions (29) (3–7)
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (26) (4–6)
25. New Orleans Saints (23 — Down a category) (4–6)
24. Dallas Cowboys (28) (3–7)
23. Miami Dolphins (19 — Down a category) (4–6)
The Ravens could be the unluckiest team in the league this season. Losing your starting running back and then your franchise quarterback in the same game is a rare occurrence. But this is merely the tip of the iceberg in Baltimore this year. There are now 16 players on injured reserve and done for the year.
The injuries have not merely hit backups or bit-part players, but starters, and key starters at that: QB Joe Flacco, RB Justin Forsett, RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, WR Steve Smith, OLB Terrell Suggs and S Matt Elam would all be key contributors. This is not to mention first round draft pick WR Breshad Perriman has never been able to suit up either.
With all of this, it is no wonder the team have struggled to challenge this year. The Suggs injury destroyed the defense and led to them being uncompetitive on the that side of the ball from week two onwards. But the sheer volume and accumulation of injuries has meant HC John Harbaugh has simply been unable to plan consistently with his team from week to week.
Jobs are not in danger in Baltimore after years of sustained success, and I would expect that if they were armed with a high draft pick, it might be a welcome relief in a strange way after years of picking late in the first round. A chance to draft a high quality player could mean they are the ideal bounce back candidate for next year.
A point to prove
Season sitting on knife-edge
22. Washington (16) (4–6)
21. Philadelphia Eagles (17) (4–6)
20. Houston Texans (25 — Up a category) (5–5)
19. St. Louis Rams (14) (4–6)
18. Chicago Bears (22) (4–6)
17. Oakland Raiders (15) (4–6)
16. New York Jets (12 — Down a category) (5–5)
15. Indianapolis Colts (18) (5–5)
14. Kansas City Chiefs (20) (5–5)
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21) (5–5)
12. Buffalo Bills (12 — Down a category) (5–5)
11. Atlanta Falcons (8 — Down a category) (6–4)
10. Seattle Seahawks (13) (5–5)
After week one, it looked as though the Bucs would be struggling to match last season’s paltry 2–14 record following a disastrous defeat to the Tennessee Titans. The defense looked amateur, the offense had no plan, and rookie QB Jameis Winston looked like a project in every sense of the word. Yet here we are nine games later with the Bucs at .500 and in the thick of the playoff race.
The NFC South is already out of the equation with the Carolina Panthers at 10–0, but the wildcard for the playoffs is right within their grasp. The remaining games on the Bucs schedule read as: @ Colts, vs Falcons, vs Saints, @ Rams, v Bears and @ Panthers. It is not a particularly easy schedule, but nor is it one that should strike fear into the hearts of the franchise given the manner of their past two victories.
Against Dallas, the team showed they could tough it out in a defensive battle, and their young quarterback was able to pull the victory out at the death — albeit at the second time of asking. The following week against Philadelphia, the offense showed a kind of explosiveness that was unknown up to this point. The running game, led by Doug Martin, exploded, while the passing game produced five touchdowns for Winston. With such incredible balance and danger in both elements of the offense, opposing defenses will have to pick their poison when playing the Bucs.
Sitting one game behind the Falcons, who own the final playoff spot, will prove to be a carrot that the Bucs will want to chase. Eventually, I expect they will fall just short, but the fact that they are even involved at this stage of the season shows just how far they have come. Lovie Smith deserves credit for putting his team in position to win.
Playoff Hopefuls
Knocking on the door
9. New York Giants (10) (5–5)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (9) (6–4)
Divisional Contenders
The heavyweights battling it out for playoff seedings
7. Minnesota Vikings (6) (7–3)
6. Green Bay Packers (7) (7–3)
5. Denver Broncos (5) (8–2)
Minnesota sat top of the NFC North, with a one game lead over a Packers team who had lost three straight. Welcoming the Packers into Minneapolis with the opportunity to make a statement should have been all the motivation the Vikings needed to defeat their old foe. Instead, they were found wanting and could not grasp the opportunity to put themselves amongst the conversation as true Super Bowl contenders.
The defense, which has played well to this point, was unable to make plays and found themselves carved by the Packers running game, which had been missing for most of the season. Once the running game was working, the Packers were finally able to open up the passing game too, leaving the Vikings chasing shadows in both elements. This desperation led to a season high of eight penalties, a huge amount for the leagues least penalised team.
At 7–3 and tied for the top of the North, the Vikings are right in the playoff mix. But their schedule is tough from here. This coming Sunday, at Atlanta, is crucial. The two teams currently occupy the two NFC wildcard spots, but a win for Minnesota would give them a two game cushion over the rest of the NFC in the wildcard race. A loss, and they would likely only be one game ahead of multiple teams, as well as losing ground to the Packers in the NFC North race.
They have to overcome the disappointment of not turning up in their biggest game to date, and do so quickly. HC Mike Zimmer will make sure his players are ready to do so.
The Powerhouses
The cream of the crop
4. Cincinnati Bengals (3) (8–2)
3. Arizona Cardinals (4) (8–2)
2. Carolina Panthers (2) (10–0)
1. New England Patriots (1) (10–0)
This was the first game that the Patriots had to play without both Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis. The state of injuries on the offensive line has meant that Tom Brady has needed extra protection in the form of star tight end Rob Gronkowski staying in to block. But they still managed to grind out a win against a division rival on Monday Night Football. This insatiable drive for victory just proves too much week in, week out for opponents.
The fourth quarter on Monday was the first quarter the Patriots had gone scoreless since the first quarter of week one. That was 38 straight quarters of scoring. To put that into perspective, the next best streaks in NFL history were the 1999/2000 Rams and 2005 Colts who strung together 31 scoring quarters. The worry has to be, given the loss of Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson too, whether the Patriots can continue this scoring.
The Patriots finished Monday with Brandon LaFell, who started the year on IR, and Chris Harper, an undrafted rookie, as the only fit and healthy wide receivers on the roster. This should put into perspective just how good Tom Brady has been and underline his MVP credentials. Even his starting cast of receivers would not crack a top ten positional list around the league, but his current weapons would result in losses for almost any other team.
Dancing to another double-digit win season puts the franchise in rarefied air along with the 1980’s 49ers, but it will be seen as merely the start in Boston. With the opportunity to wrap up the division against Denver this week, the Patriots have problems to figure out, but at 10–0, they just don’t seem like severe problems anyway.
Four downs
1. Johnny Manziel could be the biggest idiot to play in the NFL, and that takes some doing. Having finally been given the chance to showcase his skills on the field, he decided to party like it’s 2013 again on a bye week return to Texas. He cannot keep out of his own way and it seems inevitable he will be cut once his salary cap hit can be dealt with in Cleveland. Being demoted from starter to third stringer without playing a game could be a new record.
2. Thomas Rawls looked like an electric back on Sunday. Behind a shaky Seattle offensive line, he showed great vision and his acceleration out of his cuts was a sight to behold. He may have a long run as the starter for the Seahawks and he certainly looked worthy of the opportunity based on Sunday’s showing.
3. I find it somewhat strange to watch Matt Hasselbeck as a starting quarterback on a consistent basis again. Even stranger is the sight of Charlie Whitehurst as his backup. The last time those two wore the same uniform was in 2010 when they led the Seahawks to the playoffs despite a losing record. Are the Colts trying to channel the same results in 2015? There is a very good chance they are.
4. Thanksgiving is one of my favourite days of the year. Having an American wife who loves it may have an effect, but really it just seems to be a bonus day of extra football that truly signals the beginning of the business season in the NFL. I’m also a mathematician by trade and also know that Thanksgiving week signals the time when bye weeks are over and we can start comparing teams on like for like records. Call me a geek, but I find comfort in that.
Andrew Symes is the Lead NFL Writer for UKEndZone. If you have any questions or plain disagree, you can find Andrew on Twitter @asymes86, or join in the conversation @UKEndZone, in the comment section below or on our Facebook Page.