Matt’s Stats: WKU’s Greatest Weaknesses From 2017 Looking Respectable

Everyone knows Western Kentucky’s running game was historically horrific in 2017. The Topper offensive line could not keep Mike White upright if they were offered extra meal plans and a daily pass on breakfast check.

Also, WKU could not get pressure in the backfield defensively. After the first game of 2018, WKU’s running game, pass protection and defensive pressure shows signs of immediate improvement.

In 2017, WKU averaged 60.8 rushing yards per game. That was good for dead last in the country by a huge margin. To make it even more alarming, third to last in the country ran for over 90 yards per game. Not only was WKU’s running game awful as a whole, the Tops did not have a single rush of 20 yards. Dreadful.

In addition, WKU’s offensive line gave up 48 sacks last season. Per game, that was 126th of 129 schools. Remarkably, Mike White was so good that he still was in the upper echelon in all passing categories. Good for him, but he sure couldn’t help himself in the running game, and he certainly had very little help.

In the season opener against preseason #4 Wisconsin, WKU showed a legitimate running attack. Overall, the Toppers ran for 124 yards, more than doubling the previous season’s average against the third best defense in the country from 2017.

WKU squeezed out 69 rushing yards from the quarterback position alone, which accounts for more yards than Mike White ever gained for the entire season in 2017. For perspective, Mike gained 63 yards and lost 331 for a net of -20.6 yards per game. This is a 90 yard flip from year-to-year.

In addition, Eckels was hit twice and sacked one time. WKU averaged giving up over three a game in 2017, and did not have a single game with less than two sacks surrendered. They have already bested each game from 2017 in this category.

Defensively, WKU averaged less than one sack per game (12 total) in 2017. In the game against Wisconsin (who returned all five O-Line starters; three preseason All-Americans), WKU wrangled Hornibrook three times. This also never happened in 2017.

Assuming Wisconsin should be the worst statistical game for the Hilltoppers, what are the possibilities for 2018?

What if…?

We prorate these numbers from the Wisconsin game and say the Toppers do exactly what they did in the Wisconsin game the rest of the season? Basically, this should be as worse as the Tops could be:

• If WKU were to rush for 124 yards per game, it would finish 110th in the nation in rushing (according to 2017 numbers). Considering dead last by a mile, this is a huge difference maker.
• If the offensive line were to give up one sack per game, the Tops would finish inside the top ten in the country.
• At 3.6 yards per rush, WKU would jump 22 spots to 107th.
• At three sacks per game, WKU would finish tied for 11th nationally.

Statistics Bucking Trends From 2017

• Three sacks in one game (never)
• One sack surrendered in a game (never)
• Only four tackles-for-loss surrendered (never)
• Three total QB hits/sacks allowed (never)
• 3.6 yards per rush (never)
• Recovered fumble in a game (only five times)
• 124 rush yards in a game (once)
• 15 yard rush or longer (four games)

Let’s Not Get Carried Away

WKU has to replace Mike White, an all-time great quarterback who won and produced despite having a historically bad running game and an offensive line that couldn’t protect him in his last year.

The Hilltoppers will almost certainly not produce the same passing numbers, but which is more important? Being able to run or pass? Passing produces chunks of yards, but being able to run helps finish games, control the tempo, and shorten the game. Without a running game, WKU was predictable, and when the time came, teams were much more likely to stop the Tops in a critical moment.

In addition to the offensive concerns, WKU did not give up 491 total yards (as they did against Wisconsin) all of 2017. Yes, certain portions were great, but Western must limit yardage going forward.

WKU’s punting game was not impressive, either. Rinella punted for an average of 35 yards in his first game. That’s certainly concerning and provides opposing offenses some free yards. Hopefully he gets that up near 40.

How Significant Are These Areas to Winning?

Last year, WKU started 5–2. In those games, WKU rushed for 81 yards per game, scored 12 rushing touchdowns, gave up three sacks a game, sacked the quarterback six times, forced two fumbles, and snagged seven picks. WKU only passed for 303 yards per game and caught 12 touchdowns receiving.

In its final six games, WKU went 1–5. In those games, WKU rushed for 37 yards, scored three rushing touchdowns, gave up 4.5 sacks per game, sacked the quarterback six times, recovered three fumbles, and only caught two interceptions. WKU actually passed for 375 yards per game and caught 15 touchdowns receiving.

Again, rushing statistics and protecting the quarterback ruled the outcomes, not passing statistics. One could argue more passing cost the Tops later in the year. Gaining rushing yards and preventing sacks are chances to avoid disaster. In this case, turnovers forced played more of an impact than sacks. However, if the defensive line (or a combination of blitzes and the line) starts making an impact, the difference will be more obvious game to game.

Statistics Don’t Always Tell the Full Truth, but They Don’t Lie, Either

This team still has issues, but by some method of madness, the greatest weaknesses have been minimized. If the first game is any indication, WKU should be able to produce on the ground, and against lesser opponents, should be able to move the ball through the air.

Each position group showed some promise, and the statistical indication is that certain horrible trends may be reversed in 2018.

Think about it. If a team removes its three greatest weaknesses, how much stronger is that team going to be? Football is such a complicated game. When a football team is decent at everything, they end up being better than average.

If the running game cost Western in 2017, perhaps it won’t be the sole reason WKU loses several of its games if it is respectable.

If Eckels has some mobility and has a line that doesn’t get him killed six or seven times a game on average, perhaps the Tops could sustain a couple of drives. Perhaps Eckels could scramble for a first down on a 3rd-and-long, something that happened less than ten times since Kawaun Jakes graduated.

If Defensive Coordinator Clayton White can dial up pressure that produces chaos in the backfield, maybe the Tops kill some drives with some sacks and tackles for loss one or two more times a game.

Think of it this way: WKU just played its toughest opponent of the season and bucked several 2017 assumptions in 60 minutes. That is either the most extraordinary statistical anomaly, or WKU is just plain better in these areas than last year. Perhaps Topper fans should just expect more in these areas.

Paint the statistics to say what you wish, but ignore them at your peril.