WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory Against Marshall
Western Kentucky’s men’s basketball team is looking poised to make some noise. They are a half-game out of first place with a win against the first place Mean Green.
They play Marshall at home for their second straight game against the Herd. WKU is a 6 point favorite, with a 76.4% chance to win in the friendly confines of Diddle according to ESPN’s BPI.
So what are the Keys to Victory for a Topper victory today?
WKU is on a bit of a run. Since looking horrible against UAB, WKU has looked horrible in three of four games since, winning four in a row. Although margins of victory ultimately make WKU look like a dominant team, WKU was down double digits against both Old Dominion and Marshall. The Tops are really hard to figure out, but nonetheless, one cannot question the heart of this team anymore.
Without four come-from-behind wins without Charles Bassey, this team has got something special brewing in Bowling Green. That being said, WKU does seem to have its lapses in both intensity and overall quality. With a roster with a good amount of individual talent, Western has the ability to run away with Conference USA if it can figure out a formula for winning without size. Until then, the Tops will struggle to be consistent, because their tallest consistent rotation player is 6'6". Only two on the entire roster stand over 6'6", and Isaiah Cozart is only 6'7". 6'11" Matt Horton is seemingly in the dog house and has rarely seen action in a few games.
So all of that leads into the question, “How does WKU beat Marshall Saturday?”
Get off to a decent start
I think I would get laughed off of this article if I didn’t say this is absolutely crucial. Fathom this stat: WKU has been tied or trailed at least 2.5 minutes into every game the entire season except the very first game against Tennessee Tech. That is an unbelievable stat. WKU is yet to start out hot and not cool off and allow the other team completely back into it at some point. With a sparkling record of 13–6, how could Western possibly survive not dominating a few games from start to finish?
WKU has nine games in which they have started out with at least a five point deficit within the first five minutes of play. The Tops have dug out of so many holes that the odds eventually have to even out and they will start getting bit by this bug. It has to stop.
Attack Iran
Don’t get your political feathers ruffled. That’s a guy’s name. Apparently a Marshall fans name is “Holden Majoules”, as well. I digress. Pronounced (Eye-run), Iran Bennett is an absolute LOADDDDD down low for Marshall. That big ole boy is like Nigel Dixon big, if you remember him. He’s a full 6'10" 300, can move, and can absolutely dominate once he learns how to control his body and play with fundamentals. Only a redshirt sophomore, this kid scared WKU for a half of play. Then the Tops figured him out and started attacking him. He was way less of a factor in the second half, and it gave WKU a chance to make some plays
He is going to block some shots. He is going to cause problems. You’re a small team. Big deal. He’s not going to go off for 30 on you. Just be solid against him and asphyxiate him. He does not always run the court, so push the ball forward when it’s advantageous. If you’re in bad position, foul him. He shoots 60 percent from the free-throw line. That is enough of a liability to just foul him when he’s got an easy layup. Offensively, pump fakes work, and he will get off balance when away from the basket. Use your quickness to your advantage, get him in foul trouble, and make him work and run.
Taveion vs. Taevion
WKU’s Hollingsworth is on a tear, averaging way over 20 the past several weeks. Now in his natural position, Tay is back to what he looked like late in his freshman campaign two years ago. Taevion Kinsey of Marshall is also very good. Against WKU, he was not his normal self, only scoring eight points. Both guys average over 15 points per game. Both guys can get to the rim. Kinsey is a little bit longer and athletic, while Hollingsworth is crafty and tough. Regardless of their different styles, their numbers are complete and utter mirrors of each other. Pick a stat and they’re close. The only two differences I can pick out are Kinsey gets way more assists and Hollingsworth shoots way better free throws. That is absolutely it.
Press, Press, PRESS!!!
This is not typical Marshall. This is not a shootout type of team. They are big and physical. They like to dump it inside. Marshall also fouls like crazy, fouling nearly 80 more times than its opponents. They also turn the ball over 15 times a game. You’re also simply smaller than them, so surely you need to create an advantage with your athleticism. Rick Stansbury has adopted a press of some kind since the North Texas game for a significant amount of time during each game. This is not his tendency of preference, but kudos to him for finally doing something he should have done three years ago.
Everything Marshall is and does tells you that you should lift the tempo and force them to get into their bench by driving straight at them and forcing them to foul. They clearly have been instructed to foul by Coach Dan D’Antoni, at least in some situations. Take advantage of it! You shoot 78 percent from the free-throw line. Draw tons of fouls, push the pace and be aggressive in everything you’re doing.
Let Them Shoot
Marshall hits 29 percent of its three-point attempts. That means it is mathematically favorable to encourage them to shoot from outside. This does not mean let them have five feet of space, but it does mean when it doubt, go under the screen. When in doubt, pack the paint. When in doubt, double Bennett. Stansbury was creative with the ways he covered Bennett, which I thought was brilliant. Bennett could not read whether he was going to be doubled, whether the Tops were going to fake it, or whether they were going to let him go one-on-one. Stansbury was camping in Marshall’s head in the second half.
Prediction
I was skeptical of WKU’s chances against Marshall Wednesday. It turns out I was right, but by another miracle, they came back from the largest deficit since 2005, when, according to WKU Stats & Info, WKU came back from 25 points down against North Texas in 2005. That being said, I don’t see WKU not figuring out how to beat Marshall at this point. Sure, Marshall will have a plan to change some things to give them an advantage against the Tops, but I just don’t see Western knowing what they know now and falling into the same trap they did in the first half against the Herd.
Marshall is not very good this season, or at least they’re not sharp enough yet to compete consistently in C-USA. Maybe later in the year, this extremely young team will grow up and be a legitimate threat. For now, I think this is a WKU win. Western takes over halfway into the first half and controls the game, never getting up by more than 15 but never allowing Marshall within a possession. 78–64 WKU.
