WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs UTSA

Well, in case you missed it, UTSA has defeated Charlotte, 72–62 and advances to play Western Kentucky in the quarterfinal. UTSA took a significant lead and for the most part coasted to victory against the 49ers, who finish their season on a nine game losing streak.

UTSA’s Jhivvan Jackson (yes, him) scored 18 of UTSA’s first 33 points. Then he did not score again. Keaton Wallace (yes, him) poured in 20. He only scored nine of UTSA’s first 33 points, finishing with 20 total.

Ultimately, UTSA wins with relative ease, although the game did get tight and the starters pretty much had to play the whole game. Jackson tweaked his shoulder at one point in the game, but it is unknown whether he sustained any significant injury. However, he did not score another point afterwards. So his shoulder is something to watch going forward.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, East Division winners (God forbid if we proclaim them as overall regular season conference champions!), await the Roadrunners in a quarterfinal matchup with a lot of mystery. In what amounts to an 8–1 matchup, this spells danger for the Hilltoppers.

Either Wallace or Jackson could singlehandedly win a game by themselves. With the two of them, any team in the country could fall prey if they both are on. And UTSA are winners of 10 of 12, including their most recent victory against Charlotte. Earlier in the season, UTSA was struggling, getting blown out, not producing quality performances.

Truthfully, perhaps the schedule eased up after facing North Texas and La Tech in the first part of conference play. But nonetheless, UTSA defeated UAB in its final conference game, a really impressive win against a good basketball team coached by a good coach at his alma mater.

So the question with UTSA: Will they show up and play well? Or will they be off their game?

With WKU, where do you start?

Anyone who says WKU is not the most talented team in the conference is trying to justify the fact that WKU is yet to win a postseason championship with Rick Stansbury. Other than that, any reasonable person would agree WKU has the most talent, or certainly that no other team has definitively more talent. Charles Bassey, Conference USA Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Taveion Hollingsworth, all-time top ten Hilltopper. Two other KY Mr. Basketball’s. A four star coming off of the bench. Josh Anderson is probably the best athlete in C-USA and, you guessed it, also a former four star. Transfers from other schools that averaged double digits at their previous institutions.

But then again, the Hilltoppers are maddening. Try betting on them. Watching the betters going back-and-forth on a WKU game feed is deeply amusing. Why? Because WKU can beat ranked teams and then lose to a sub .500 team within a week. WKU has six losses, three of which they held a double digit lead. They had two other games (Gardner-Webb & Rhode Island) in which they held a double digit lead, lost it, and barely won in the end. Two other games (Memphis & Charlotte), WKU was down by more than ten and came back to win.

WKU should be the most likely team to win the C-USA Tourney, but according to the computers, they’re the third favorite behind La Tech and North Texas. It stands to reason the inconsistency makes everyone wonder if they can put it together.

That being said, let’s try to look at some keys for the Tops to get it done against UTSA.

Keys to Victory

1. Hollingsworth and Bassey need to be comparable statistically to Wallace and Jackson. The main concern with UTSA are those two guys. If the Toppers’ two top players can have good games, or if the Tops can simply keep Jackson and Wallace at bay, UTSA would really struggle to come up with enough offense.
2. Contain three point shooting. WKU’s three point defense has improved as the season has progressed, but the Tops are known to miss assignments and leave shooters wide open. UTSA is very average shooting the three (34%), so if you’re WKU, just keep them from going crazy. Anything under 40% is fine. If you hold them to less, it’s hard to see a team with volume shooters making twos enough to beat WKU.
3. Limit turnovers. I try to stay away from the obvious, but I can’t resist keeping this one out. For a very good team that doesn’t really press the pace that often, over 15 turnovers per game is terrible. Despite the pretty record, WKU turns the ball over more than its opponents. UTSA takes care of the ball, barely giving up ten possessions per game, while forcing 14. I personally have said all season that turnovers would eventually be the reason WKU loses in the postseason. Whether that is now or down the line is obviously up to the Tops. But they must curtail some of their most silly turnovers or they will lose because of their lackadaisical nature with the ball at some point.
4. Keep UTSA under 70. UTSA is 13–1 when scoring over 70. When scoring 70 or less? 1–9! That’s a huge indicator. A few things factor into this: UTSA loves to play at a fast pace. They score nearly 80 points per game. Second is they don’t play great defense. They give up 73.5 a contest, so if they can’t muster 70, there are few teams they could physically hold to that number in a 40 minute game. It also suggests that if they don’t reach 70, their stars are not firing on all cylinders that night, or the role players can’t buy a basket. Either way is bad news for UTSA. When the top three scorers (Jacob Germany at 10.2 ppg) combine for 47 points a night, it doesn’t take much from others to get the Roadrunners over 70 and often into the 80s.
5. Win the mental battle. Conference tournament games are difficult and multilayered. You really have to understand the opponent’s perspective, mainly so you can stay motivated and focused. As the higher seed with the bye, WKU is coming in nervous and excited to get their tournament started. UTSA is already settled in and has a game under its belt. The nerves won’t really be there for them, as much. UTSA will also be tired, and WKU should be completely fresh. How does WKU handle a tired opponent? When they sense weakness, do they pounce or relax? If they build a lead, can they jump on it and turn it into a blowout? Or will they let the other team back in? Also, WKU is the top seed. With that comes expectation. They are supposed to win the whole thing. How much pressure does that put on them, how much do they feel, and how much does it affect them? Also, which team is mentally more focused and playing harder? It’s one thing to be the best team, but if UTSA is clearly the team diving after loose balls and WKU watches as they do it, that is mental weakness and really should put WKU on upset alert.

Honorable mention: Dominate the paint, Josh Anderson or Carson Williams need to score well into double digits, Tay Hollingsworth doesn’t have more turnovers than Jhivvan Jackson.

Prediction

Given the nature of this WKU team, and frankly the nature of UTSA, as well, it is a complete and utter mystery how this game and this tournament will play out. But I do believe this WKU team is a little different, and they are too talented to fall prey to a less talented team in the biggest moments of the year. They have shown they can win several games in a row, at one point winning eight in a row. With only one player over 6'8", UTSA may have trouble containing Charles Bassey. There may be some hairy moments, but I believe WKU plays well, UTSA is tired, and Jackson is still banged up from his shoulder issue from the first round game. I’ve got WKU beating UTSA fairly handily, 81–69 WKU.