WKU Football: Every Expectation to Have For the 2020 Season — A Full Diagnosis
It’s time for the second installment of the “every expectation to have” series, where I’ll take an in-depth look at each record WKU football could finish with at during 2020 and how realistic those records are.
Last year, I had the Tops 8–4 regular-season record as unlikely but then again, who would’ve thought they’d turn things around so fast?
Now this team returns a bunch of key players, looking to gain a ton of good recruits or transfers, and added a grad transfer quarterback in Tyrrell Pigrome from Maryland. As I write this article in May, it’s with the assumption that Pigrome will be the starting quarterback to start the season.
I know that COVID-19 has thrown a wrench into everything including football season and this article is assuming there is a season regardless of whether it starts on time, if it’s pushed back a few months, or even if there are no fans in the stands. This is just solely based on what we can expect on the field.
If you need a refresher on the full schedule it can be found here.
No Season Because of Coronavirus
I have to put this on here because as I type this in May, we still don’t have an idea of what this fall will hold. While Kentucky has done better than some states with their flattening of the curve of COVID-19, we have been slower to reopen than some other states too.
States like Florida have already said that sports can resume and if cases keep declining then hopefully more, along with Kentucky, will as well. Until there’s a vaccine readily available for the general public we’ll have to do our best to live with this virus in mind so I’m not sure if there is a season if there will be fans in attendance or if we’ll have to social distance and have a lower capacity. There are still so many questions we can’t know the answer to right now.
WKU President Timothy Caboni has already said that he plans on having students return for in-person classes this fall but other schools in C-USA may not elect to do so if they still have a lot of cases. If they choose to not have students will they still have organized sports? If not, will it just count as a win for us or just a thrown out game?
Obviously there are so many questions that I don’t have the answer to but my gut tells me that if things go well this summer that we could still have a season, whether on time, delayed, or with or without fans.
Likelihood of No Season At All: 30%
0–12
This would be an unmitigated disaster. Either football season would just be canceled because C-USA ran out of money or every player on the roster would be injured. A team as talented as next year’s team should be could never do this bad. Surely they’d at least beat Chattanooga (although WKU hasn’t beaten an FCS school in two years).
I’d rather have the whole season canceled outright because of Coronavirus than see this record happen again.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Basically Impossible (1%)
1–11
Every able-bodied athlete on the roster would either have to quit or be hurt for this record to happen. It makes me feel so much better about the state of our program that I can look at records this bad and know they it could never happen. I have faith in this team and coaching staff.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Next to Impossible (2%)
2–10
This still isn’t in the realm of possibility to me. Even if a ton of key players got hurt, there should be enough depth to get at least four wins in my opinion. As much as I’d wanna say the two wins would be Chattanooga and maybe Liberty, the Flames are now an FBS school and went 8–5 in their first season as an independent so I wouldn’t sleep on them. I still don’t see this happening.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Extremely Unlikely (5%)
3–9
The only way I see this record happening is if the quarterback spot becomes a carousel again and there’s no consistency in that position but even still, the defense should help with many things next year with a healthy Eli Brown and returning DeAngelo Malone. Every team they play would have to play at an extremely high level or WKU would have to lose every 50/50 game they have. Don’t see this team doing this bad under Helton’s reign.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Highly Unlikely (10%)
4–8
Eight losses this year would be one of the biggest letdowns after coming off of a season with eight regular-season wins. The four wins I’d have would be Chattanooga, maybe Liberty, ODU, and maybe MTSU.
The other teams on the eastern side of the conference would have to get a lot better. Charlotte could grow under their head coach Will Healy (although they lose their star running back Benny LeMay), MTSU would have to gain more consistency and find more help for quarterback Asher O’Hara, ODU would need to have a Helton-like rebuild with their new head coach, and FAU would keep maintaining success with Willie Taggart. I feel like one or two of those things could happen but not all four in the same season.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Not Likely (15%)
5–7
This is where it starts to get within the realm of possibility. Of course, I wouldn’t want the Tops to do this bad but you have to look at their schedule and see how things could pan out. If they go 1–3 in non-conference and only 4–4 in C-USA that’s technically not too far fetched if this team struggles with a new quarterback or has issues getting new players to produce.
While some key players like Quin Jernighan and Lucky Jackson are gone on offense, I don’t see the receiving core doing too bad with Jahcour Pearson and Jacquez Sloan stepping up into their roles. The biggest question is who will be throwing them the ball? Either way, the defense should produce and help the offense a ton even if they don’t light up the scoreboards.
WKU would have to lose to UAB, USM, FAU, and either Marshall again or Charlotte. The Tops lost to Marshall and FAU last year in relatively close games and I’m sure they’ll have a chip on their shoulders entering those game this year.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Possible But Not Likely (30%)
6–6
Honestly, this is my basement for this team next year. A bowl-eligible season should be the expectation for this upcoming season, plain and simple. If Pigrome stays healthy and plays at a high level all season he’d definitely be more than capable of getting this team at or above .500 on the year.
Looking at the non-conference games, WKU should win against Chattanooga and Liberty but the Louisville game at Louisville and at Indiana could be pretty tough. Louisville, like WKU, turned things around really fast under new head coach Scott Satterfield and turned things around from 2–10 the season before he arrived at 8–5 and won the Music City Bowl in his first year. Indiana also went 8–5 but lost a close game against Tennessee in the Gator Bowl.
The Tops have come close to beating Louisville the past two years but couldn’t get it done and the Tops lost a close game against Indiana in 2015. A win against a Big 10 opponent has been one of the most elusive things that the Tops have come close to getting since they’ve joined the FBS but has yet to happen. If WKU were to beat a Big 10 team, it should be this year. I think going 2–2 in non-conference would be the most likely scenario but not the end of the world if it does happen.
As for C-USA, going 4–4 in the conference after going 6–2 last season would be a major disappointment. Every game on their conference schedule should be a winnable game but I wouldn’t expect a clean 8–0 sweep.
Marshall, ODU, FIU, and USM are all home games for WKU while they travel on the road to FAU, MTSU, UAB, and Charlotte. Just looking at the conference side of things, WKU should go 6–2 again or hopefully better, not trend the other way. For them to go 4–4 they’d have to lose a ton of toss-up games and their offense would have to be inept or the defense would have some issues in the secondary all season long.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Possible But Unlikely (50%)
7–5
A winning record would be nice but seven wins would still be a one-game decline from last season. I wouldn’t be upset if WKU went 7–5 but as good as this team should be, they could realistically win a few more.
I’m really interested to see how Pigrome will fit in with the team this year too. I feel like he could be a more athletic version of Storey so they can use a lot of the same plays and QB run/option plays they used for Storey for Pigrome which helps. With limited practice because of COVID-19, I’m worried it might make things a little rougher for the offense the first few games but everyone is in the same boat so there’s not too much they can do about it.
If the Tops go 2–2 in non-conference but go 5–3 in C-USA that wouldn’t be bad. It’s possible they can squeak out a win at IU or go 6–2 in C-USA again. With conference wins over MTSU, Charlotte, ODU, hopefully, Marshall, and maybe FAU or UAB it’s possible.
Seven wins wouldn’t be bad but if this team takes care of the ball on offense while keeping that strong defense for the majority of the season, seven wins should come easily.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Possible (65%)
8–4
A repeat of last year. I wouldn’t have an issue with this again at all. A good enough record to get a decent bowl game but a little short of a C-USA title once again.
I think it’s very possible this team goes 8–4 again. As much as I’d like to see them compete for a CUSA title, it depends on if they can keep their momentum they finished the year with going into this year with some new receivers and a different quarterback. The defense should be there but the offense is still my biggest question mark.
If Pigrome can manage the offense half as well as Storey did he should have a great year. One of the things that plagued the team last year was turnovers. It seemed like every interception or fumble lost that they had come back to bite them in some crazy way (just look at the WMU bowl game for example). Thankfully now that they succeeded in a full year of Helton’s offense last season and will be able to work on perfecting his plays the offense should pick up some.
2–2 in non-conference and 6–2 in C-USA again would be good. I think it’s a strong possibility and depending on how fast this team clicks, could do this well or surpass this record.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Very Possible (70%)
9–3
This would be a one-game improvement from last season. And honestly, I think it’s very possible they could do this well.
I’d love to see this team go 3–1 in non-conference and get a win over a P5 school and end up doing well in C-USA. They would be capable of playing for and winning a C-USA title depending on a lot of things already mentioned but going 2–2 in non-conference and 7–1 in CUSA would be stellar and would likely put them in the C-USA title game.
I wouldn’t expect the Tops to win every 50/50 toss-up game they have and they might have a bad game or two and still end up with this record.
Last season they lost to an FCS team they should’ve beaten, a Louisville team that they had a chance against but buried themselves in the first half, a Marshall team that beat them on a miraculous last-second field goal, and ten-point loss to the eventual conference champion FAU. All of those games were within their grasp. If they didn’t lay an egg at home to start the season and if the field goal against Marshall didn’t go in they would’ve gone 10–2.
That’s how close this team was to have an outstanding record and I believe we can see these guys do it again. This is the record I see our guys getting.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Very Likely (75%)
10–2
A two-game improvement from last season. Honestly, they should’ve finished with this record last season. A flat game against Central Arkansas and the heroics of Marshall’s kicker was what made them go 8–4. The only true losses they really had were against Louisville and FAU.
If WKU went 3–1 in non-conference and 7–1 in C-USA that would be incredible. With a win over at least one P5 team and one loss in C-USA that definitely put them in the C-USA title game and a really good bowl game. Depending on how the rest of the conference looks they could go 2–2 in non-conference and potentially run the tables but I wouldn’t expect that to happen. The 2015 team that became nationally ranked and went 10–2 was able to sweep the conference but I don’t see this team being offensively as strong as them to get it done. The defense should be elite but you still need some points.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they click early on that they end up with this record but the offensive side of things is what I’m still questioning the most.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Very Possible (70%)
11–1
This is where I start to get my head out of the clouds a little. A 3–1 non-conference record with a sweep of C-USA is definitely possible, don’t get me wrong but I don’t see the Tops finishing the regular season with only one loss. I’d love for them to prove me wrong but they would beat out the 2015 team for the best regular-season record WKU has ever had since joining the FBS.
Personally I think the only loss would be against Louisville if this happened but knowing this team it could be Liberty or something crazy and they’d still end up with a superb record.
While I don’t think they’d end up with this record, it’s closer than we could think. The Tops could’ve been at least 10–2 last season so anything is possible.
Likelihood of This Record Occurring: Possible But Unlikely (50%)
12–0
A perfect season. If there was a time for the Tops to run the tables, it would be this season.
They if have a strong showing against Louisville and sneak out with a big win, beat the Hoosiers at IU, and take care of business in C-USA it’s possible.
While I think Pigrome could get this team to play at a high level I’d be really surprised if he (or anyone) could bring them this far. If Doughty and Brohm couldn’t do it I’m not sure if anyone could. Helton definitely worked magic his first season here but having an undefeated season at this level is extremely challenging and that’s if everything goes your way.
Even if they went undefeated they’d be nationally ranked but wouldn’t have any chance of a CFP bid unless Louisville and Indiana both won out. If UCF didn’t get in the CFP in 2017 they won out then no G5 will in my opinion.
One can only dream but I wouldn’t bet my life savings on this team winning out.
