WKU Football: Five Important Things Ahead of Maine
Western Kentucky comes into its first home game with positive momentum. After a respectable showing with promise against Wisconsin (albeit in a 34–3 blowout), WKU enters its first game at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium with anticipation.
The Maine Black Bears come into Bowling Green after a brutal 35–7 win against New Hampshire, a program ranked 7th in the FCS. Maine comes off of a 4–6 campaign in 2017. However, Maine is a program with good tradition and has some talent. With a win like New Hampshire in which they barely allowed 100 total yards defensively, perhaps Maine is looking to improve significantly on its previous campaign.
In theory, WKU should be favored significantly, but anyone who knows a history of Western football should know upsets can happen. Be it Central Arkansas or Indiana State or upsetting Middle Tennessee in 2007 in the first year of transition, WKU better take the Black Bears seriously.
WKU has its own issues, so what do Topper fans need to see from the Tops, and if Maine wants to threaten the Toppers, how will they do it?
1. WKU Offensive Line vs. Maine Defensive Line
Maine sacked New Hampshire six times. With WKU’s O-Line woes last year, was the Wisconsin game a total fluke, or are the Topper hogmollies really that good? There is no question if the offensive line can dominate the smaller Maine defenders, WKU’s size and speed at the skill positions should overpower the Maine defense. Without question, this is the number one concern.
2. WKU Defensive Line vs. Maine Offensive Line
WKU managed to muster three sacks against a really good Wisconsin line. Maine held New Hampshire to one sack. If you’re not catching my drift, the trenches are key for both teams. Maine needs to hold its own in the trenches. When an FCS opponent (like EKU did) can hold its own in between the tackles, it gives itself a chance for an upset. Generally, skill positions are going to be more of an execution issue, but an offensive or defensive line that can create problems for the other team really constricts the opponents’ options. Lines should be the biggest difference between FCS and FBS. If this is not a clear win for Western, danger danger!
3. Special Teams
Looking at the stats, Maine’s David Gelb punted eight times for an average of 31.6 yards per punt. The long on the afternoon was 43 yards. Being an FBS member, WKU would figure to have a booming punter 15 yards behind the long snapper. Unfortunately, Alex Rinella kicked six times for an average of 35.2 yards, and astonishingly a long of 37. There’s something to be said for consistency. WKU’s Ryan Nuss has had an inconsistent career himself. Maine struggled making some extra points last season, missing five of 28 on the season. Yikes all around. With punters kicking it short and shaky kicking games, if this game is remotely close, special teams could be a deciding factor.
In addition, WKU only scored three points inside the red zone. Perhaps special teams could help salvage a few trips deep in Black Bears territory.
4. Running Game
This is one of the few blaring weaknesses for WKU. Even though the Toppers ran for 124 yards against a good defense, 69 (ed. note — nice) of those yards came from quarterbacks. How can WKU expect to survive with quarterbacks running into the field 15 times a game? WKU needs two or three running backs to man up and take charge of the position group. With a mobile quarterback, if WKU can’t muster muster 100 yards on the ground against Maine, this game will probably end up creating a headache for Sanford. Really, the Tops better shoot for at least 150, given the success against Wisconsin. Will we finally see a 100 yard rusher? Or even a 75 yarder? A 20 yard run? None of that has happened since Mike Sanford took over.
In addition, Maine rushed for over 200 yards against New Hampshire. Two running backs rushed for over 80 yards, which to belabor the point, WKU has not seen in a year and a half.
5. Passing Game
Both teams produced pedestrian passing numbers in their first game. Both quarterbacks have a career completion percentage under 60%. Neither team had a receiver come close to 100 yards in its first game. This could either be a sludgefest with a lot of punting and unsuccessful run plays and dropped passes, or somebody might bust free and make some plays.
WKU’s defensive backs should make this a dominant win for WKU, but if Western drops significant amounts of passes, or Eckels sprays the ball around wildly, this advantage could be neutralized quickly.
Conclusion
After breaking down the Maine Black Bears, this really feels like a comfortable match-up for WKU. Hopefully that doesn’t get to the players’ heads, but in nearly every area WKU might struggle, Maine is equally weak or worse. Against EKU, the Colonels had some legitimate players on the defensive line that created serious issues on the edge. They had a quarterback who could throw, etc.
WKU may struggle to pass this year, and Maine barely mustered 2,000 yards passing in 2017. The offensive and defensive line is improved for WKU against some decent Maine fronts. WKU’s special teams are shaky, but Maine’s is potentially even worse. WKU’s defensive backs should shut down Maine’s passing attack.
The pivotal issue could be the running game for WKU. If Maine somehow can’t run the ball, or WKU can, this should be a brutal onslaught from the Tops. However, if WKU cannot gain three or four yards a rush, and Maine rushes for 200 or more, the Black Bears could win the game.
The only other concern is Maine’s stifling performance against New Hampshire. Hopefully, WKU is better than New Hampshire and can muster more than 108 total yards. But if Maine could pull out another dazzling performance, watch out. Was that a fluke, or is Maine really that good defensively?
Combing through this match-up, we should probably see a routine blowout from the Toppers, but watch out for these key match-ups, in addition to obvious keys like big plays, missed tackles, and turnovers.
