WKU Football: Grading the Tops’ 48–21 Win over MTSU
With Western Kentucky’s 48–21 victory over arch rival MTSU, WKU is now officially a decent football team.
Boasting a record of 5–4 and only one loss in C-USA play against an undefeated UTSA, WKU will now be viewed differently by whoever they play. The Tops better step it up from here.
Now winners of four in a row (all by at least 15 points) one could definitely say the Topper snowball is officially rolling downhill as we head into colder temperatures. Contrary to Olaf’s belief that whatever happens to snow in summer is a good thing for a snowball, I’m pretty sure cold weather is good for a ball of snow. (Sorry, I’m a #girldad!)
Anyway, the Tops really have got it going on, and now stand one game from bowl eligibility. For the first time, WKU shows up as a consistently predicted participant in bowl game projections.
This past week, WKU did it with the defense, picking the Blue Raiders off six times and forcing a fumble, to boot. WKU’s offense barely had to do anything, often getting the ball inside MTSU’s 30 yard line.
Despite the lack of opportunity, WKU’s offense still found ways to produce above average yardage and 41 points (seven came on Beanie Bishop’s pick-six).
MTSU was able to move the ball some, but WKU responded offensively when it had to, and then the floodgates opened and the long overdue turnover train got rolling like CSX does once or twice a game on the tracks 30 yards outside the Houch.
So let’s get into grading the Tops, starting with my Keys to Victory…
Grading the Keys to Victory
Two or Less Turnovers OR Force Two Yourself: A+ with Extra Credit
Imagine that one bunny class that was taught by a rookie teacher that gave too many extra credit opportunities and you could finish with a 130% in your sleep. That’s the grade the Tops should get for accomplishing this task.
MTSU was the one that was possibly going to wreck the entire game with forced turnovers, not WKU. I’m pretty sure forcing seven turnovers fully accomplishes this goal. In addition, the Tops didn’t turn it over themselves, something they have only managed twice all season, including this one. Obviously the floodgates opened and seven turnovers is an absolute fluke. No one can expect to force that many turnovers. Even having that many opportunities is plenty to be pleased with. Regardless, moving forward, if WKU can become a ballhawking type of defense, just add that to how scary the Tops should be to anyone who happens to be in their way.
DeAngelo Malone vs. Jordan Ferguson: B(?)
The two prolific producers at defensive end were very average this week, with virtually the same stat line. The only difference was Malone had more solo tackles and a PBU. I think Ferguson probably had more impact on the game early, but WKU got the Middle Tennessee defensive line under control after a shaky start protection wise for the Tops. But frankly this “matchup” didn’t really play a factor in this game as much as I originally thought. Honestly if both parties are neutralized, that’s a win for the favorite, so if neither produced anything of consequence, that’s a slight win for WKU. The main thing was that Ferguson didn’t blow up the game. Clearly he didn’t do that.
No Off Schedule Touchdowns: D
Honestly, each of MTSU’s touchdowns came because of big plays. MTSU’s first touchdown was on a 54-yard bomb. The next one came as a result of a 30+ yard play. Again, giving up cheap points. The last came because of a kick return to the WKU 16 yard line and MTSU capitalized on an easy opportunity. WKU was fortunate to not have to worry about throwing away a few possessions, because these three huge mistakes could have cost the Tops if the game were closer. Other than these three issues, the WKU defense was absolutely lights out. However, the Tops have started giving up some bigger plays in the past few weeks. Hopefully they can stem the tide of explosive plays moving forward.
Third Down Defense: C-
Again, my keys pretty much didn’t affect the outcome of the game because of the seven turnovers. But WKU’s defense was its normal average of nearly 50% on getting off the field on third down against a team that struggles to convert third downs on the season (entering the day, they were only converting about one-third of them). That’s pretty poor execution in trying to get off the field, and it shows in the time of possession. Despite forcing seven turnovers, WKU still lost time of possession by six minutes. WKU must get better at, first of all, forcing more third-and-long situations, but also in stopping the other team from backbreaking conversions. Although time of possession is always a complete non-issue for the Air Raid offense of Zach Kittley, the fact that MTSU still handily won Time of Possession given the circumstances is indicative of other issues.
Kick Less Field Goals Than MTSU: F
WKU kicked two field goals and MTSU kicked zero. On the one hand, that means WKU kept MTSU out of the red zone. But on the other, MTSU was allowed to make big plays where they didn’t need to consider kicking a field goal. In a normal game, this might have mattered, but again, no harm no foul in a blowout. As good as WKU’s offense is, the Tops still have tons of room to improve. Braden Narveson is 15-of-17 on his field goal attempts this season. That is 45 of 119 possible points, meaning WKU has left an astounding 74 points (9.25 points per game) on the field just by not converting their field goal attempts into touchdowns. Of course, the Tops can’t be perfect, but 17 field goals says enough to say there is room to get better. With such an explosive offense, your field goal kicker should not be tied for ninth in the country in made field goals. Tops need to convert more in the red zone.
Position Grades
Quarterback: C-
Again, what’s wrong with four touchdowns, zero interceptions and nearly 300 yards? Nothing, unless you’re Bailey Zappe. The #Zappe4Heisman curve clearly states that Bailey Zappe will be graded with the expectation of earth shattering success. If it doesn’t happen, that’s just a shocking turn of events. Well, Zappe definitely had some flaws this game, not even completing 60% of his passes. He was tangibly off of his normal greatness, but also, let’s throw him a bone here, too. WKU’s average starting field position (including the pick-six) was the WKU 41 yard line. That’s a good 150 to 250 offensive yards lost by the defense handing the offense the ball in great field position. So Zappe didn’t have his normal gaudy numbers, but that was partly because of circumstance. It still stands to reason that an average completion percentage outing from him should’ve produced another 75–100 yards, though. This was not his best, but hey if his worst performance of the year comes with five total touchdowns, only getting sacked once, and zero turnovers by the offense, which scored 41 of its own points? Good luck, Rice.
Running Back: B-
Noah Whittington has been the running back of choice lately. Against MTSU, he was productive, totaling 87 yards combined through the air and on the ground. That’s solid. However, there was virtually zero other production from his backups (10 yards rushing total). It seems WKU has regressed slightly in the total run game the past few weeks. Western doesn’t need an elite running game, but the Tops will need a reliable running game at some point this season, particularly in a close game. 71 net yards rushing is just too much pressure on the passing game.
Wide Receiver: B
Middle did a really nice job bottling up WKU’s receivers, relatively speaking. Although the Tops produced scores, Zappe had to work, and no Hilltopper play went for more than 28 yards, although three different receivers made plays of exactly 28 yards in the receiving game. But despite the lower yardage total, the top receivers produced and took advantage of less opportunity to still show up and nearly produce 300 yards by themselves as well as four touchdowns. That’s a heck of a job being ready and making the plays presented to them. It’s tough to give them a higher grade, simply because of the lack of their normal production.
Tight End: F
See other articles for more explanation, but this is simply because of the absence of the tight end position anywhere on the stat sheet at all. There has to be some production from this position if WKU wants to be an elite football team.
Offensive Line: B+
I think it’s fair to say this wasn’t their best performance. MTSU’s front (and entire defense) poses a threat to “normal” football. They’re both aggressive and effective, and they were pretty effective early on in the game. The O-Line settled in and took care of its business and didn’t notice any serious issues after a sluggish start protection wise. MTSU had six tackles-for-loss, as well as a sack and three QB hits and forcing Zappe to throw for less than 60% on the night. If he had a clean pocket, he may have been a little more effective overall. Zappe was more rushed than normal and made some uncharacteristic throws. Still, the offensive line continues to boggle the mind, working on a historic season in the sack department, again only giving up one sack against a very good offensive front.
Defensive Line: A-
You would love to see your two stars have a great game, but we’ll settle for a group effort. With well over 20 tackles, three TFL, a sack, and consistent pressure forcing bad decisions by a third string quarterback being forced to start against a red hot defense. It all starts up front, and the Topper D-Line got it done Saturday.
Linebacker: A+
This may be the first time that all of the main linebackers did something that we like to see in one particular game. Jaden Hunter (11 tackles, fumble recovery, interception) and Demetrius Cain (Interception in the past two games) were incredible Saturday. Will Ignont was also good, creating his normal havoc on the line of scrimmage. I have said it all year: Linebackers need to produce, so multiple turnovers and a bunch of tackles is exactly what you like to see. If we were to try to break down why the defense has been better the past four games vs. the first five, look no further than the linebackers. They have produced every single game of late, and now the middle of the defense is not a liability but an asset. The defensive line has been better, too. But it’s partially because they’re not having to perform linebacker duties more than half of the time. The secondary is now free to do what it is supposed to: Protect the back end and create turnovers through the air. It all has hinged on the linebackers, and they are finally doing their part on a consistent basis.
Defensive Backs: A
The only knock for this group are the two touchdown scoring plays. The DBs straight up got beat twice and Middle capitalized. Those plays were ugly if you wear red. However, other than those two obvious mistakes, the secondary was lights out in terms of production, turnovers, coverage, etc. Four interceptions alone means a high grade, but they were also making plays close to the line of scrimmage as well. Not enough can be said about the all-around performance by the defense.
Special Teams: B+
For the first time in a while, Special Teams was not perfect. First of all, a 68 yard punt return is the fault of several mistakes to allow the play to go that far. Second, John Haggerty was not his usual 50 yards+ self, only kicking it once over 50 and only dropping it inside the 20 one time, and that time was after about a 20–25 yard bounce that got to the 17, barely inside the 20. Still, Haggerty averaged 43 per punt. Everything else was great, with Narveson making longer field goals and Corey Munson booming kickoffs into the end zone all night in both directions.
Coaching
Coaching Preparation, Game Plan, and Execution: A
I don’t think there was much to complain about in terms of WKU being prepared. All sides of the ball looked capable, and ultimately, WKU cruised to an easy win. There’s not a lot to complain about in terms of the Tops not being ready to play or ready to go.
Coaching Decisions: B-
I thought there were a few questionable calls, and some were in fairly vulnerable moments. The two that stand out to me as odd were two 4th-and-5’s. One was late in the first half. WKU is in pretty decent control of the game at this point up 21–7. WKU stalls near midfield, and the offense stays on the field on 4th-and-medium. If WKU gets the first down, they’re still not even in field goal territory unless they make a huge gain. Well, WKU actually gets sacked and MTSU goes 52 yards down the field to bring the game to 21–14. Imagine if this had allowed MTSU truly back into the game and they had capitalized further. Helton and Kittley would’ve taken some heat for the strange call. Also, there was another 4th-and-medium where WKU was a little more in “no man’s land”, but also, why go for it when there’s not a huge chance you get to keep the ball. If you mess up and don’t get the first down, MTSU gets wonderful field position. The Tops were lucky these two decisions didn’t cost them the game.
Overall: A-
It’s always great to beat your biggest rival, but to do it in embarrassing fashion? Even better. WKU did just that, dominating in all three phases and getting things done offensively despite struggling a little bit to run and pass the ball at times. The Special Teams being a little closer to average and the offense not producing mega yardage drag this score down, because the defense was great all night.
WKU has now won four in a row, all by at least 15 points. Next up is Rice, another also-ran type of program that can beat anyone but generally loses in the end. Rice is hopefully an opponent WKU takes very seriously and cruise on to the next one. WKU is increasingly in better position to win the East Division by the week.
