WKU Football: Hilltoppers vs. MTSU — Statistical Preview
It’s been tough to watch a three game skid after holding out hope of glory for Mike Sanford and the Tops. Now, WKU sits at .500 and have to piecemeal this season together enough to make a bowl game and beat the biggest rival on national television.
I’ll be honest. I am going to have a really tough time being unbiased and fair in this article. I hate Middle Tennessee. People say Marshall is now WKU’s biggest rival, to which I would like to say, “Horse MANURE!” There is no way a game against Marshall could replace the hatred and history between WKU and the Middle Tennessee College of Parks and Recreation in any athletic event. Few things make true WKU fans happier than swinging an invisible bat after every MTSU fight song (which ends like “Take Me Out to the Ball Game”), making fun of MTSU’s mascot, and debating whether MTSU has any tradition at all in any sport.
That being said, both of these programs are at the tail end of disappointing .500 seasons up to this point. However, despite a disastrous first ten games, the winner stands to gain bowl eligibility, a significant consolation prize for the two teams predicted to finish first and second in the Conference USA Eastern Division.
In General
MTSU has been fairly pedestrian offensively, only gaining 374 yards per game. However, star quarterback Brent Stockstill and superstar wide receiver Richie James have both been out for much of the season. Now, Stockstill is back and impressive and it's possible James could make an appearance in the biggest game of the year. Keep in mind their absence, but MTSU boasts the 92nd best total offense nationally, while operating the 50th best passing offense.
Defensively, MTSU forces opponents to work, only giving up 334 yards per game (26th best mark in the country), 194 passing yards (32nd best), and 140 rushing yards per game (37th best). The Raiders are proficient but not deadly up front, garnering 21 sacks on the year. Perhaps the only significant knock on MTSU’s stingy defense is their six forced turnovers (128th).
WKU’s offense has had similar woes. WKU started out the year with a very average passing attack, but the Hilltoppers have really come on of late, now boasting the 13th most prolific offense through the air. WKU is last in the country in every rushing category, though, including giving up over three sacks per game. There’s no question WKU struggles up front. Topper fans beg for the offense to run deeper routes, have a ground game, and be physical but that’s impossible with an inability to control the line of scrimmage.
Defensively, WKU started out on fire, but has cooled of late. Perhaps this is simply an increase in opponents’ quality, but for whatever reason, WKU boasts only slightly above average numbers on defense. They are 42nd in total defense, 47th in scoring, 38th in interceptions forced and 22nd in passing efficiency defense. Those numbers are nice, but 85th in the country against the run and 127th in sacks per game really dampens the overall quality.
Of late, MTSU has turned it on, winning their past two games. WKU is on a three game losing streak after starting the season with a 5–2 record.
Stats to Watch
Turnovers
MTSU has only forced six turnovers all year, despite boasting a significantly improved defense in 2017. They are in the bottom ten nationally in turnover margin, losing that battle by over a turnover per game.
WKU forces over one turnover a game, and as aforementioned, is especially good causing problems in the air. Offensively, WKU turns it over more than desired, and is tied for 82nd nationally in turnover margin.
Someone has to win the turnover battle. Both teams have their deficiencies on both sides of the ball, but this stat will prove crucial in a rivalry game on WKU’s Senior Night. WKU must find a way to be even or ahead in this category at the end of the game.
Rushing Yardage
For a variety of reasons, rushing yardage could be the tale of the tape on Friday night. Both teams struggle to run the football, and their defenses struggle to stop the run. MTSU is much better statistically, but they are not immune from disappointment from the ground game in 2017, either.
Despite their ineffectiveness in the running game, this is a stat MTSU must crush. If WKU finds a magical running bean this week and gains over 100 yards, it could really be trouble for the Blue Raiders. The Hilltoppers showed flashes of a prayer at times against Marshall.
The Hilltoppers are good everywhere else, so any semblance of a running game makes them a really good offense. The Blue Raiders have run the ball well in their past two games; remarkably, both of those games happened to turn out as wins. Amazing.
Both teams lose the Time of Possession battle on most nights, and with two potential NFL quarterbacks, keeping the ball out of the opponent’s hands will be crucial.
Receivers vs. Defensive Backs
There is a contrast between the two teams in the passing attack. Mike White throws the ball to everyone; 10 WKU receivers have at least 115 receiving yards on the year. MTSU has only five with 100 or more, and all of them have 207 yards or more, including Richie James, who may or may not see the field Friday. MTSU young phenom receiver Ty Lee leads the team with over 700 yards receiving and also runs the ball effective on wide receiver sweeps.
Whose style wins out in this game? Do the Hilltoppers spread it out and throw for 400 yards, or does MTSU use Lee to win the game single handedly?
In addition, watch how the defensive backs do on both sides. Even if one side or the other has nice looking stats, how difficult was it for the other offense to pass the ball?
I don’t believe this match-up has been more crucial in any other WKU game in 2017. Why? Both quarterbacks have pro aspirations and if their receivers perform well, they could play a pivotal role in slashing through the other team’s defense.
Special Teams
We all know special teams can be very boring, unless there is a big return or a huge hit. They usually end up in a skirmish, if you want to consider that exciting. Be careful about ignoring this stat on Friday.
MTSU’s kicker, Canon Rooker, has only missed two field goals all year. However, he has missed two PAT’s. Middle allows 27 yards per kick return, and has allowed two interceptions returned for a touchdown. WKU has been very average in special teams, but has thrown two and brought back two interceptions for scores themselves.
WKU has also made absolutely boneheaded plays on special teams, allowing balls to skitter off of their bodies on punt returns multiple times. In addition, WKU’s Ryan Nuss is 6-of-10 on his field goal attempts. WKU has opted to try to convert on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal on multiple occasions to avoid a likely shank.
How do I say this? Someone is going to screw up on special teams. Watch out for a mistake that costs someone the game. Both teams are vulnerable here, especially with two run averse offenses. WKU has been most plagued with this particular issue, so if they can avoid silly mistakes, that’s a huge notch on the belt for the Tops. A missed field goal, a bunch of made field goals, a 2-point conversion, a muffed punt, or a huge return will cost someone. A blocked PAT was the difference last year.
Prediction
First of all, this is a rivalry game. Therefore, this entire article could be completely useless.
This is a game on CBS Sports Network on Friday night prime time, so everyone will be excited, regardless of the records. This game went to overtime last year, and Deon Yelder blocked a PAT to make the difference in the extra period. I believe it will go down to the wire like it usually does.
I believe this is a good matchup for WKU. This isn’t article speak. I really do. Why? MTSU does not boast an elite line on either side of the ball. That is WKU’s greatest weakness. The Blue Raiders do not force turnovers. WKU’s offense has had untimely turnovers and the WKU defense intercepts the ball once a game.
I believe WKU has two cornerbacks that could combine to shut Ty Lee down and force someone else to beat them. Ty Lee is about a quarter of MTSU’s offense. Shut him down, and they are going to have a tough time keeping up with the Topper offense.
WKU’s depth and health at receiver and tight end, along with a lack of playmakers defensively for the Raiders, should do MTSU in. Tops gain bowl eligibility and win in a thriller, 33–32 on a Ryan Nuss field goal off the goal post as time expires.
