WKU Football: Hilltoppers vs. Vanderbilt — Statistical Preview
WKU football started out the season looking like a question mark, then transitioned quickly into a seriously concerning squad and has now turned out to be a decent Conference USA Football team. Yes, WKU just lost to Florida Atlantic, perennial bottom feeder, but we have to keep perspective.
As crazy as it sounds, Florida Atlantic is nopw the odds-on favorite win Conference USA in 2017. With a win against Marshall on Friday and an FIU loss to UTSA, FAU would be a full two games ahead and own all tiebreakers with three games to play.
Vanderbilt started out looking incredible in the first part of the year, beating an MTSU team that was supposed to win Conference USA, handling Alabama A&M like they were supposed to, and beating 18th ranked Kansas State. After that game, I predicted they would finish second in the SEC East. I was drinking the Black and Gold Kool-Aid.
Fast forward to the present, and I look like a sensational fool. Vanderbilt was fool’s Black and Gold. Middle is horrible, and KSU may not even make it to a bowl game. The Commodores (3–5 overall) are 0–5 in the SEC East and haven’t played a competitive game in conference play. They better drink some magic potion, or they won’t come close to a bowl game this year.
After Week 3, this game looked like it would be a bloodbath and the Tops would bleed red all the way back to Bowling Green. Now, this looks like this match-up has in recent years: Vanderbilt should probably win, but WKU fans have some hope.
In General
First of all, from a stats standpoint, let’s keep in mind what conference these teams play in, and also account for the quality of the opponents within those conferences. WKU has played teams with a combined record of 19–45, including two teams that were defeated halfway through the season, while Vandy has battled opponents with a total tally of 38–25, including the first and second ranked teams in the country (Georgia and Alabama).
Now, WKU’s rushing offense has been horrifying all year, but the passing game has hit its stride of late, racking up 300 yards or more each of the past three games. Former walk-on tight end Deon Yelder, who never caught a pass before this year, is getting recognition as one of the best tight ends in the country. He has twice been John Mackey Tight End of the Week honorable mention this season.
Defensively, the Hilltoppers have come back to Earth, giving up at least 448 yards the past two weeks. The defense still holds opponents well under 400 yards per game, and it seems like they could be getting healthier again. In each game, the Hilltopper defenders have held opponents under 180 yards in either rushing or passing yards. In other words, the defense may not completely shut opponents down, but they shut down half of the opponent’s offense and force them to beat them one-dimensionally.
Coming into 2017, Vanderbilt’s offensive playbook was thought to be Ralph Webb Left, Ralph Webb Right, Kyle Shurmur incomplete pass, punt, and repeat. Webb and the Vanderbilt running game has been nearly as bad as WKU’s, rushing for less than 100 yards per game. Ralph Webb, an all-time great SEC running back, is averaging a paltry 55 yards a game on the ground. Kyle Shurmur has a six-to-one touchdown to interception ratio in 2017 and has already doubled his touchdown production from 2016 with four games left to play.
Defensively, Vanderbilt just hasn’t lived up to expectations. They looked like the third best defense in the SEC at the beginning, but they’re now allowing over 30 points a game and over 400 yards. They’ve only forced six turnovers all year. Their lone bright spot defensively is their passing defense, which allows well under 200 yards per contest.
Despite their predispositions, these two teams seem to be mirror images of each other. Both boast weak running games, strong passing games, weak running defense, and a strong pass defense. Special teams are overall average, and they both take care of the ball and don’t force very many turnovers.
Stats to Watch
Offensive and Defensive Line Statistics
When trying to understand how these teams might play out against each other, it’s very apparent that Vanderbilt’s offensive and defensive lines are better than Western’s. WKU boasts only six sacks and a respectable 43 tackles for loss on the year. The Topper offensive front has given up 23 sacks and 57 total tackles for loss. Vanderbilt has found 17 sacks and forced 48 overall tackles for loss. The offensive line has only given up 10 sacks and allowed 30 tackles for loss.
One major difference between a Group of Five and Power 5 team is typically in the trenches. If WKU can’t hold their own against Vanderbilt, this will absolutely cost them the game. However, if they’re competitive up front, the rest of the Hilltopper roster is as good or slightly better than Vanderbilt.
Watch out for Charles Wright from Vanderbilt; with six sacks and five more quarterback hits, he’s a force to be reckoned with.
Running Games
Both teams are unable to run the ball consistently and both defenses struggle to stop the ground game. The odds are the ability to run the ball will affect the outcome, or at least the closeness, of the game. If someone can dominate on the ground, they could either stay close or expand their lead at the end of the contest.
If Ralph Webb finally acts like Ralph Webb, I don’t see WKU winning this game. If the Toppers can get 125 yards on the ground, I think they win.
Special Teams
Both teams are very average on special teams, and the kickers are a combined 5-of-13 on field goals on the year. Special teams don’t always affect the outcome, but they have in a couple of games for WKU, and they have kept Vanderbilt out of several games. WKU still has Kylen Towner, who was spectacular in 2016, but hasn’t really shown much of anything spectacular so far in 2017. WKU lost a possession against FAU by allowing a punt to careen off a knee and be recovered on the eight yard line.
Watch out for hidden yards — such as interception and fumble returns, net punt average, and starting field position, especially in a game between one-dimensional offenses and average special teams units. You could argue every WKU loss has been because of Special Teams and hidden yards. WKU only won at UTEP because UTEP shanked three field goals.
Quarterback Play
I hate to just say, “Whichever quarterback is better in the big moments win this game.” That is such a copout. OF COURSE the quarterback is important. Everyone knows that, but this game is especially going to hinge on Mike White and Kyle Shurmur. Neither has a productive running game to rely on, nor do they have pro receivers to help make them look good. They don’t have extraordinary defenses that allow them to mess up every once in a while.
They both have to take care of the football. Shurmur has simply not turned the ball over this year, and they rely heavily on maximizing every possession and winning small battles with field position. WKU’s Mike White has turned the ball over at crucial times, or WKU could potentially be undefeated right now. That’s not all completely his fault, but the bottom line is White has choked inside the 20 on both ends of the field on multiple occasions.
Shurmur and White are proven passers and they both have enough arm and experience to make things happen late in games. The two areas I would watch are turnovers and yards. If White is even with Shurmur in turnovers, advantage WKU. If Shurmur is even with White in yards, advantage Vanderbilt.
Prediction
Early in the season, I was picking Vanderbilt 100 percent of the time. Now, I believe WKU could absolutely win this game, but I think they need to disguise their blaring weaknesses up front.
In football, the trenches are like an old man on a porch: They’re ugly and you don’t always pay attention to them, but you know they’re there, they’re somehow right about 90 percent of the time, and tell most of the story.
I think the old man is right, and Vanderbilt is going to overcome WKU’s other strengths with superior line play. I’d give WKU about a 30 percent chance of winning, but Vanderbilt beats WKU in Nashville 26–22.
