WKU Football: Keys to the Season Opener against Central Arkansas
After a long 9 month off-season, it’s once again football time in Bowling Green.
Tomorrow, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will take on the University of Central Arkansas Purple Bears. Although it may not seem exciting on paper, UCA did beat WKU the last time they came to Bowling Green in 2009.
Western also comes off of the firing of its coach Mike Sanford after a 3–9 campaign, so even though we have our ideas, only the Lord only knows what’s going to happen at the beginning of the Tyson Helton era. Preseason predictions have the Purple Bears getting “at least eight wins” according to HeroSports.com. UCA seems to be absolutely loaded offensively, and has really good defensive linemen, along with some other really good players. UCA is ranked 16th in the FCS preseason polls.
That’s no slouch FCS program, and with Maine beating the Tops last year and EKU competing with the Tops the year before, we can’t overlook the Purple Bears.
Let’s take a wild guess and try to look at some keys for the match-up.
Keys to Victory
Can WKU’s offense hang with UCA’s?
Looking at stats, preseason write-ups, and the roster itself, UCA is going to be very good offensively. They have two young quarterbacks, both of which were productive last season. Their dual running backs, Cedrick Blackman and Kierre Crossley, both busted runs of over 40 yards, averaging 126 yards per game combined. Two Arkansas transfers bolster the wide receiver unit, and an offensive line that only gave up 20 sacks returns multiple starters.
The offensive unit for WKU is in doubt everywhere. Who are the likely starters at any position? Can Steven Duncan blossom? Who are the first two running backs into the game? Who starts with Lucky Jackson? Who starts on the offensive line? There are a lot of unknowns, so surely everyone is skeptical of the Topper offense. They could easily be great or terrible.
The key for the Tops is to keep this area close. Be effective. Move the ball. Take advantage of opportunities. Keep the defense off of the field. Maybe the defense can hold the Bears down a little bit.
WKU Must Win the Trenches
Ultimately, games between FCS and FBS are won in the trenches. Generally, an FBS squad is way more powerful and deep and ultimately grinds the smaller team down. However, FCS teams that hold their own in the trenches give themselves a chance to steal a win. UCA’s lines should be very good for an FCS team. However, WKU’s lines should be good, as well. We know for a fact WKU’s defensive line is legit. We think the offensive line should be at the very least pretty good if not very good.
Ultimately, I don’t care how good UCA’s lines might be, WKU must win the trenches to win this game. If Western dominates the trenches, how does UCA find a way to win? That spells blowout to me. Their running game should be stifled and their passing game should be disrupted if WKU dominates the line of scrimmage. Offensively, dominating the defensive line eliminates the main threat from the UCA defense. If WKU wants to be a good team this year, it needs to win the battle of the big boys.
Don’t Lose the Turnover Battle Decisively
How do upsets happen? Turnovers are usually a big factor. UCA forced tons of turnovers last season, forcing a total of 26 fumbles, gobbling up 17 of them for recovery, and picking the ball off 11 times. By comparison, WKU only forced 18 total turnovers. However, Western did hold on to the ball last season, only giving up 16 balls over to the opposing defense. UCA was fairly good, only committing 18 mistakes on the season. Both teams had a positive turnover ratio, but with UCA forcing more than two a game, surely this has to be a focus for Tyson Helton and the offense.
Win in the Decision Making
Western was abysmal at this last season. Special teams were terrible in every area, missing field goals, shanking punts, and an anemic return game saddled the Tops. Western scored touchdowns 60 percent of the time in the red zone, which is not awful, but only scored 3/4 of the time. Western was awful on third and fourth down. Fortunately, UCA was not much better. UCA was decent in field goal kicking and was decent on kickoffs. However, everything else was average or less.
WKU would seem to have the upper hand in crucial moments because it has more scholarships (82 vs 63 for UCA) and can have higher quality specialists. Western should have some more talent deep in the red zone to finish off drives or stifle the UCA offense from scoring touchdowns. With new additions on special teams and a new philosophy that hopefully includes good field position and good decision making on third and fourth downs, WKU should be decidedly better in the crucial moments. Special teams, third down, fourth down, and the red zone are all about decision making. This is Tyson Helton’s area to shine. Good coaches value special teams, and they are consistent and decisive in their decision making.
Show Up
I asked my wife, “Hey babe, what does Western need to do win against UCA?”
“Show up.”
Mama’s always right, fellas. Remember that. Seriously, if WKU shows up and plays well, it should win the game. UCA was 6–5 last year in the FCS. Sure, they’re supposed to be better than last year. So is Western. Ultimately, if the Tops are interested in this game, it should be ok. Will they blow UCA out if they play their best? I would say not by 30 or more. But show up and get the job done, boys.
Prediction
I feel great about this team, but frankly I don’t like the match-up for the Tops. Does this mean I think the Toppers lose their second straight game against the FCS? No. But I think Central Arkansas can hold its own in key areas and make life extremely difficult for Tyson Helton’s Hilltoppers.
I do believe this WKU team has something about it that I like, and I ultimately like the amount of talent and depth for WKU. UCA has some players that could come together and make a run at a victory and on some days even win, but I believe Western is ultimately going to put it together and be impressive in Helton’s debut.
WKU 40– UCA 17
