WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Army
Western Kentucky comes home after a quick and successful conference road trip. After demolishing Old Dominion’s will to live in a defensive battle, WKU returns home and finds an Army team waiting at the door trying to get a bad defensive performance against Tulane out of their mouth.
Both teams are 3–2 heading into this game. Each has different reasons to believe, and each has flaws that could be exploited.
The main thing to be concerned about with Army is whether you ever get to touch the football offensively. Hand-in-hand with that comes defending the triple option.
The triple-option is named appropriately, as generally, the quarterback has three options every time he snaps the ball: Keep it, hand it off to the fullback, or pitch it to the running back. In addition, defenses get focused on the run, but they must also keep their eyes out for a rare pass play.
So how does WKU beat Army?
Keys to Victory
Put Army in Uncomfortable Game Situations
What do I mean by that? Army runs the triple option, right? They generally dominate the time of possession, right? What better way to throw Army off than get a lead? What better chance to force Army to pass than give them the ball with 1:30 left to play in the second quarter instead of handing it to them with five minutes left? Now, unlike most service academy QB’s, Kelvin Hopkins, Jr., Army’s quarterback can actually throw it, but it is absolutely not secret Army will run the triple option 98 percent of the time if it can. Make them uncomfortable and force them to spread it out and pass as often as possible.
WKU Linebackers and Devon Key Need to Combine For at Least 30 Tackles
This is a challenging task for WKU, but I have a feeling Clayton White will be forced to play a few more linebackers in certain packages with Army. Running nickel as a base all game could really allow Army to overpower the Tops physically. Kyle Bailey is a stud, but being a recent nickel/safety, he is much more comfortable covering in space than stuffing the run. Jaden Hunter, Malik Staples, and Damon Lowe (suspended for the first half due to targeting vs. ODU) and others need to have a good game and contribute. Devon Key has been incredible this season, and he consistently produces near double digit tackles. He is versatile, but WKU needs him to help against the run all night against Army. Although he is skilled in several areas, Key functions closer to the line of scrimmage than most safeties. He should be a valuable asset against a team like Army.
Key and Bailey should be good for close to 20 tackles. Tops need another 10–15 from other linebackers. Why this number? What it would suggest is WKU is tackling well, and the right people are making the tackles. If Coco Darden or Dionte Ruffin have 15 tackles, that means Army is out on the perimeter breaking tackles and making big plays. If linebackers and linemen are making plays, that means WKU is hitting Army at or near the line of scrimmage. WKU has been a great tackling team this year. If that stops or is not as sharp as a razor Saturday, this is the game that issue would cost them dearly.
Finish the Two Halves
Army scores most of its points in the second and fourth quarters. Why? They wear down their opponents. Their drives also simply take longer game time, and it may take a few field position wins for them to be able to march down the field later in the half. WKU has had some issues in the second and fourth quarters thus far this season. The second quarter against Louisville was a disaster for the Tops. A meltdown against Central Arkansas happened late in the game. WKU has had some moments available in the fourth quarter to capitalize and put some games away, even in their wins. Against a team that is ultimately reliant on efficiency and field position, winning the little battles against the clock will go a long way in determining a winner.
Eliminate the Silly Mistakes Offensively
WKU did everything it could to allow Old Dominion back into the ball game last Saturday. This Saturday, Army will not beat itself. Army is absolutely the more proven team and probably the better one at this point. If the Tops want to upset Army, they need to finish drives, they need to protect the football, and they just need to be consistent. Western can have moments of really good offense, and then just completely look like a dumpster fire. If they can just even out, complete simple passes, and fall forward instead of backward, Western would probably have an average to above-average offense. With a great defense, that’s an even more potent formula.
Win the Field Position Battle
Besides not giving up explosive plays in the run game, a game against any service academy is won by winning field position. WKU has great specialists this year. Punter John Haggerty is great, and Cory Munson is great on kickoffs and (before last game) makes big-time field goals. Army has a pretty good punter, as well. Army does not kick a ton of touchbacks, so WKU may have some significant opportunity to return some kicks. WKU tends to not fair catch on kickoffs, so whether WKU gains 15 or 30 will go a long way in determining some opportunities.
In addition to those types of things that you normally think about with field position, let’s talk about a few other things that come into play when you play Army. Army’s offense is pretty much designed to get at least a couple of first downs each drive. It may not finish every drive, but generally the Black Knights will move the ball. Army has two fullbacks, Connor Slomka and Sandon McCoy, who in 112 combined rushing attempts, are yet to have a negative yardage play. Neither of them has gained more than 18 yards at a time, but they also never miss the hole. They never get knocked backwards. That’s incredible. An average football player is two yards tall, right? These guys are pretty much guaranteed two extra yards because they always plow forward. How does that affect WKU, and can WKU get in the backfield and blow up the option? If one of those two loses a yard at any point, that is a huge win for WKU.
Can WKU get some three-and-outs? Can the Tops get some negative yardage plays? Can WKU’s bigger players control the line of scrimmage? If the opponent can outright win the field position battle, it’s hard to see Army win any game with their style of play. Field position could be huge or disastrous for WKU.
Prediction
Football is really about match-ups and weaknesses. When I look at WKU’s offense, one thing you don’t see struggling is the offensive line. Army will be a bit undersized, so can WKU take advantage there? Can WKU produce enough offensively to allow the defense to handle Army’s triple-option attack? If WKU wants to win, this needs to be another defensive slugfest, field position type of battle. The lower the score, I think the better for Western. I believe Army is likely to score into at least the 20’s. Of their five games, only once did they score under 21 points. Chances are they continue that trend.
Defensively, I don’t mind the match-up for WKU. Western’s defense has been amazing against the run. WKU’s secondary contributes in run-stopping and does not generally handle deep passes well. The only issue there is when Army throws, it’s likely going to try to make a big play on a deep ball. However, overall, WKU does well with one dimensional offenses so far this year. Also, the Tops are extremely disciplined on defense, both in terms of penalties and sure tackling.
Overall, I like the match-up for WKU. Does this mean they should win? That’s perhaps a different story, but Army makes teams uncomfortable by being physical and burning the clock. WKU doesn’t mind that game and has won its three wins that way. WKU is also great against the run, so if Army has difficulty running the football, how could they possibly beat WKU? Can Army really win through the air? Doubtful.
I’m going back and forth on this. I know Army is probably the better team at this point in the season. Army also showed weakness against Tulane and has been beat up in the last couple of games. I really feel like WKU’s offense is going to come around sooner or later. Maybe this is the game the Topper offense gets it together and wins a game for the defense. I can’t believe I’m doing this, and before the season, I would have never predicted this. However, Western has earned my respect as a legitimate football team. I’m going to go with WKU in the upset, WKU 27–Army 23.
