WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Michigan State
Western Kentucky football nearly made history Saturday night on CBS Sports Network. WKU is now 0–9 against current Big Ten members, losing to Indiana 33–31 in a fascinating clash of football styles. First of all, I bet Indiana and the Big Ten were sweating that one out. That would have been a disaster for them on all fronts. However, the “better” team found a way to win 33–31 on the road…or were they better?
Honestly, didn’t WKU give IU more chances than a cheating husband by a wife with no backbone? WKU spots Indiana 14 points to start, then claws its way back in. Then WKU (debatably) lines up offsides on a 52 yard field goal. Dumb da dumb dumb dumbbbb out of bounds penalty that directly allows IU to kick another long field goal. Then WKU cuts it to six right before the half and allows IU to find a way to kick a bunny field goal to extend the lead to two scores. Western again has multiple chances to take the lead in the second half, but silly to questionable coaching decisions and inopportune stalling of crucial drives really kept WKU from ever gaining a lead. Then Head Coach Tyson Helton decides to kick it deep with 2.5 minutes left, trusting his defense, hoping to kick a pooch that would bounce away from the returner and force him to field it at the ten or possibly let the Tops recover it. That’s not a horrendous percentage option there, and frankly if IU fields that ball inside the 20, it’s a completely different, much tighter play call choice from Indiana in all likelihood. The problem is, Munson kicked it straight out of bounds, IU was in comfortable field position, and WKU couldn’t stop IU. Game over.
Whatever wishful nothings we can whisper to ourselves, WKU lost and it feels like they were probably more likely to win than many initially thought. I certainly picked them to lose by two touchdowns. I’ll stone cold admit it: I was wrong. WKU was not two touchdowns worse than Indiana. So who does WKU go to play this coming week? 17th ranked Michigan State, another Big Ten foe that has actually taken care of its business and actually earned itself a high ranking thus far this season. Indiana has not, but an argument could be made that Indiana ends up with the better Big Ten record.
When you hear of a matchup against Sparty, one would think Michigan State plays rugged football with great defense. I was actually shocked by this. So far, Michigan State does play a rugged style of offense, but the defense is more of a “bend but don’t break” type of approach. But they sure do keep the opponent from scoring touchdowns! They have only allowed nine in four games so far this season. MSU gives up nearly 400 yards per game and gives up nearly 300 through the air, so perhaps this could be an interesting matchup for the Toppers, who love to spray the ball all over the field.
What is perhaps the main reason Michigan State has been a winning football team? They can run the ball and win the battle for field position. However, they do not possess the ball for even 26 minutes a game. That’s puzzling, and there are issues on their special teams that we will definitely cover. Frankly, I’m trying to figure out how they’re 4–0. Are these numbers misleading? Are they skewed because of garbage time? They have some flaws, but they’ve played some opponents that are supposed to be pretty decent football teams. As you read, I’m reading and studying, as well. This article is always fluid until I send it off to be published.
But let me tell you this: Upon first glance, I see this as a possibly sneaky decent match-up for WKU.
That being said, let’s dive in to my Keys for Victory Saturday in East Lansing.
Keys to Victory
Screw Yards! We Need Points!
The two things I notice statistically about Michigan State: They give up 400 yards per game, and they only give up 21. What does that mean? They’re going to give up yardage, but they’ll be in a bad spot if you actually score when you move the ball. They are going to wait for you to screw up and just be disciplined. Like a snake in the grass, they await your weakest moment.
So far, WKU has done pretty well scoring and we all know how prolific Bailey Zappe has been thus far this season. He’s top ten in virtually every passing category. However, against Indiana, his offense did not score every point out there like they did in WKU’s other two games. WKU missed some opportunities, and it cost them their first win against a Big Ten school. Michigan State has found a way to look like an elite team despite giving up 400 yards in three of four games.
Be Nearly As Efficient as Michigan State
How does a team get outgained by nearly 200 and win a game in the 20s? Discipline and efficiency. Nebraska outgained Michigan State 442–254 but lost in overtime 23–20. MSU won the turnover battle and won the hidden yardage battle by 276 yards and a touchdown (punt yardage, punt and kick return, interception return). They took advantage of every opportunity and found a way to win against a team that probably should have blown them out that day.
Michigan State seems to be wildly inconsistent statistically, but one thing they are consistently showing is making the smarter plays to win so far this season. The only game they were truly the better team was against Youngstown State, winning 42–14. Other than that, Northwestern held the ball against them for 37 minutes, Miami had more first downs, and the aforementioned Huskers nearly outgained them by 200 yards. But again, Michigan State has just found ways to win.
Offensive Line Needs to Hold Its Own
Listen, this defensive line of Sparty is absolutely ridiculous. They already have 16 sacks. They’re on pace for 48–60 depending on how many games they play. Their opponents get a fairly health two per game and it doesn’t even compare. Listen to these defensive explosive play statistics through four games…16 sacks, 30 tackles-for-loss, four interceptions returned for 62 yards, 18 pass break-ups, 13 quarterback hits, three fumble recoveries, four forced fumbles, and two blocked kicks. By comparison, WKU has five sacks, 16 TFL, one INT, two fumble recoveries, ten PBU, and six QBH.
So what’s the point? The offensive line has its hands full. If they can handle this defensive front, that really gives WKU a huge chance to pull an upset. When I look at ways to beat an opponent who is supposed to be better, look for huge coups. For example, a defensive line that creates all kinds of problems is neutralized. A punter that punts for 50 yards punts for less than 40 per punt. Speaking of which…
Neutralize the Freakish Punter
Listen, not too many punters in the country are clearly better than John Haggerty III. But I’ll be gosh darned if Michigan State doesn’t have Ray Guy himself punting back there. Bryce Baringer averages over 50 yards per punt so far this season on 18 punts. 11 have gone for over 50 and seven have landed inside the 20. Haggerty is still an incredible 49.8, but with only four punts on the young season, it’s doubtful he continues at that type of pace. He’ll probably be in the 46–47 range.
As a whole, Michigan State’s special teams unit has just been unquestionably better than its opponents. It starts with Baringer, but how about the kick return game that doubles its opponent’s total yards so far? What about the punt return that averages nearly 25 per return on the young season? Kick and punt coverage is also very good. However, Michigan State’s kicker, Matt Coghlin, has not proven he can make longer than a 37 yarder, missing 5-of-6 from outside 30 yards with a long of 37. Also, apparently MSU struggles with its protection on special teams. Both Baringer and Coghlin have had a kick blocked each. Special Teams looms large for the Tops. No question.
Defense: Replicate the Indiana Game
I know people were upset at the strategy of the coaches, but honestly, this seems like another opportunity to focus on stopping the run and make the other team pass. If WKU can just hold MSU to some field goals and get a few stops, the Hilltoppers could be in a position to finally get over the Big Ten hump, so to speak. However, with a much better rushing attack for the Spartans than the Hoosiers, this could be a much more difficult task. The Michigan State Spartans average 215.5 yards per game as a team. Kenneth Walker III averages 138 by himself while getting 7.3 yards every time he touches the ball. His combined yardage lost on the year is 24 yards, so in four games, he has hardly made a play or two a game that didn’t get back to the line of scrimmage. That’s remarkable, and he’s got a good backup that offers over five yards per carry himself.
WKU Needs More Big Plays than MSU
This is interesting. Each team has a tangible weakness defensively. WKU struggles against the run. MSU struggles against the pass. But tThe Spartans and Toppers both play solid, fundamentally sound defense. Both defenses don’t give up the big play for the most part. Get this: Neither defense has given up a 50 yard play through seven combined games. WKU has not given up a play longer than 40 yards all season, despite giving up tons of yardage (439.7 yards per game). MSU has only given up two plays over 40, and they were both in the first game in a blowout.
So both defenses ultimately play conservative back end defense. Both teams’ secondary coverages are probably going to be fairly straightforward and solid. WKU gets even more conservative and even drops its defensive linemen into coverage at times. MSU basically allows its defensive line to pin its ears back and create utter chaos. Basically Sparty waits for the defensive line to blow a drive up. But ultimately, both teams wait for the other team to give them an opportunity. Whoever gives up less big plays probably wins. If both teams do that, tip it to the favorite. So WKU needs to win this battle. The air attack must be effective.
Prediction
WKU is clearly better than last year;./’, and I would say Indiana and Army would tell you WKU can play with anyone. The way IU reacted to winning WKU, that was not a team that felt like they played a bad game against an inferior opponent and were just relieved. It was a real chess match. However, Michigan State brings in the better record and better ranking with more confidence. They have found ways to win, and Indiana has for the most part found a way to underachieve. MSU also just seems to have a really good formula that is working, so even though they have obvious flaws, they mask them very well.
Then there’s WKU’s offense. How do you calculate that variable in? They are so good. They will probably find a way to score 30 at least against anyone. If they can score 31 against Indiana, a top five Big Ten defense with what would seem like a secondary that could actually make Bailey Zappe uncomfortable, surely a Big Ten defense in MSU that gives up nearly 400 a game and nearly 300 through the air should be a team the Tops can hold their own against. So first of all, with WKU’s offense, never ever count them out. However, with WKU’s defense, never ever bet your entire belongings that WKU is going to slow a team down enough to win.
WKU wins if the offensive line can minimize the impact of MSU’s defensive line. I fully expect WKU not to be able to control the line of scrimmage and Western is going to look to find other ways to produce. That’s my fear. But if that threat is neutralized, then it’s really down to the defense slowing down the run and keeping MSU from making explosive plays. But this is such a huge obstacle, I’m having trouble overcoming it. Also, when I think about WKU’s strengths: Punting, special teams in general, and passing. MSU’s punter is amazing. MSU generally wins Special Teams yardage. MSU’s defensive line could blow up the passing game on any given drive, and WKU’s passing game relies on rhythm. WKU’s weaknesses: Running game, stopping the run. WKU struggles to get 100 total yards per game. MSU has two running backs that get 5–10 yards per play.
This just feels like a tough matchup to me. This is also on the road. I do not believe Michigan State is as talented as Indiana across the board. However, I see two insurmountable issues. WKU will need to overcome domination in both areas, and if they do, I believe they win. However, the defensive line of MSU and the running game of MSU feel like impossible tasks. And this is not a lack of respect to any particular unit, but I’m not sure how any offensive line looks good against this front. I’m also not sure WKU’s best defense under Willie Taggart would have handled MSU enough to win this game. But with the offense, the defense doesn’t have to be that great. Still, can they be decent enough in combination with great execution from the offense? I just don’t see it.
I’ve got WKU hanging in there, but they’re still going to lose. MSU pulls away late with some help from the crowd. Michigan State 44-Western Kentucky 27.
