WKU Football: Keys to Victory at ODU

Well, WKU is now on the back foot after losing its first Conference USA game 52–46 to Texas-San Antonio. UTSA (6–0, 2–0 C-USA) is clearly a very good team that deserves its national attention and votes in the polls. WKU (1–4, 0–1 C-USA) put its best (offensive) foot forward and still was unable to overcome a really balanced Roadrunner squad.

So Fortunately for WKU, Marshall looks weak and FAU lost to UAB. The only team remaining undefeated in the C-USA East is Charlotte, who gets a week off and draws FAU at home. So needless to say, WKU needs to keep winning, and this week, the Hilltoppers draw an ODU team that nearly beat Marshall.

ODU (1–5, 0–2 C-USA) was up 13–6 late on Marshall before Marshall found a way in the last 33 seconds to tie it up, send it to overtime, and after the Herd scored a quick touchdown, the Lance Guidry (former WKU Defensive Coordinator)-led defense of the Thundering Herd shut ODU down in overtime after only one first down.

To WKU fans, ODU may look like a typical 1–5 opponent. In theory, it seems this should be a nice easy win for the Tops. However, ODU is dangerous and will be as desperate as WKU to get a win. If both of these teams don’t start immediately winning, their seasons will be over in two or three games in terms of anything meaningful.

The Monarchs have been close in each of their last three games, losing by no more than a touchdown each time out. ODU’s biggest weakness is clearly the offensive passing game, only mustering 166 yards per game. The running game is pretty lethal, however, featuring quarterback D.J. Mack, Jr., a legitimate prospect and a heck of an athlete at the quarterback position with six rushing touchdowns on the year, along with three good running backs (when healthy) who all average over five yards per carry. Defensively, ODU is solid, allowing only 330 yards per game, but the defense puzzlingly allows nearly 30 points per game.

Of course, WKU’s offense is arguably a top five offense in all of college football, averaging over 40 points per game. Recently, the Tops may have added something called a “running game” to the arsenal. Defensively, the Toppers are…how should I put this?…borderline historically bad defensively so far this season. If you were grading the quality of the offense, WKU’s offense is a surefire 12–0 level offense. WKU’s defense is very generously a 2–10 type of defense. Maybe even a 1–11 caliber defense. So what has it yielded? WKU has one win against an FCS opponent and four excruciatingly competitive losses, all against teams who have received votes in the polls this season at some point.

So let’s dive in to what it’s going to take for WKU to get off the schneid and get a much needed victory in Norfolk Saturday night.

Keys to Victory

Pounce on Them Early

I have been remiss to not really mention this yet this season except in a passing comment, but WKU still has this bizarre five game streak of giving up points to start the game and outscoring their opponents from that point forward. Yet they still sit at 1–4 all season. WKU spotted UTSA an 11 point lead after the first two drives of the game. After that point, WKU outscored UTSA 43–42. That bizarre streak continues. In every. single. game. WKU has started out in the hole at least a touchdown. To make this even more important, ODU has been a second half team all season. Now that could be skewed by losing and getting some mop up points late, but ODU has given up 114 of its opponents’ 177 points in the first half.

ODU is desperate. They didn’t play a season last year, first of all. Second of all, they are two losses from elimination from any prayer of a bowl game. They are also clinging to conference title hopes, even though everyone else pretty much knows that’s ridiculous. It doesn’t matter, though. They will be desperate, and they will be scratching and clawing. If WKU comes out slow, I think that gives ODU a real chance to take control of the game, run the clock, and control the pace of the game.

Handle Your Assignment Defensively

I sincerely hope adjustments are made defensively very soon. WKU now faces another strange opposing offense, with a freakishly athletic quarterback that can still throw fairly well at times. D.J. Mack, Jr., a Norfolk native, was a high three star prospect, played backup at UCF for a couple of seasons, and has grad transferred to his hometown team with two seasons of eligibility remaining. His passing statistics are abysmal, to be frank. He barely throws for 50 percent and has a 5–7 touchdown to interception ratio. Trash, right? Think again. He also, despite being sacked 20 times this season, averages 29 yards per game rushing the ball, accounting for six-of-ten rushing touchdowns for the Monarchs this season. So when adding six more touchdowns to his total, now he’s a little more respectable. This guy can play, and he is distributing the ball to his running backs on the read option to the tune of each of them averaging over five yards per carry.

WKU’s defense, in my opinion, should pretty much come out man-to-man and dare ODU to throw. Perhaps they’ll come out with their Bear front (5–2) again, which frankly, I hate. It may be more effective against a spread concept, but I would also rather have more of a linebacker type of body to handle both run and pass. Just play a 4–3 and play DeAngelo Malone as a true LB already. WKU needs to man up, and I think they should also take some risks. No more conservative gentlemanly defense. Quit being predictable. Send six and seven guys into the backfield. Quit having your star defensive ends play conservative contain crap. Your offense needs stops in order to win. So allow your defense to give up some bigger plays in exchange for blowing up a few more drives by turning them loose. Screw discipline. Discipline has gotten you to the bottom ten in virtually every defensive statistic.

Win the Hidden Yardage Battle With Ease

ODU is going to struggle to keep up with WKU’s offense, simply because they are not consistently capable of putting up impressive offensive performances. In four of their six games, they have scored 21 or less. So what could make up the difference? Special teams. Turnovers. Wasted possessions at the ends of halves. Penalties that keep drives alive (or kill an offensive one). ODU is not very good in special teams at any level, except for one thing: Blocking field goals. They have four blocked field goals in six games. WKU is excellent in all elements of special teams. ODU has given up a fumble return for a touchdown, as well as a kick return for a touchdown. If WKU takes care of special teams, it just puts the clamps down even more on ODU’s options to win the game. But a huge pick-six, a return for a touchdown, a blocked field goal, tons of penalties, or something else could put ODU in it enough to have a chance late in the game.

Sack Mack & Knock Runners on Their Back

Although he is an extraordinary runner, for some reason, he takes tons of sacks. In six games, he has already been sacked 20 times. This has to be a combination deal if it’s this bad, because offensive lines don’t give up three sacks per game with an incredibly mobile QB if the QB isn’t contributing a little bit to the issue. Regardless, this is the D-Line’s chance to show they are the unit everyone assumed they could be. WKU has some depth at tackle and end, but the Tops have not put it together and wreaked havoc. This could be the game to do it. Blow up the line of scrimmage. Get into the backfield. Get after ODU, and let’s see what that type of disruption does for the defense. Let’s shoot for at least three sacks and at least five tackles-for-loss.

Fill Up the Stat Sheet

ODU limits its opponents in yards but allows points, meaning they take more risks and give up some big plays, but they really limit the total opportunities of the opponent. For example, WKU is used to five trips to the red zone per game offensively. ODU only gives up three per game, but once teams get there, they usually score. WKU generally gains tons of yardage and doesn’t score off of those yards as much as they should. In this game, let’s see WKU rack up tons of yards and see how ODU responds. The more yards, the more ODU will have to overcome in every other area.

Prediction

Honestly, this feels like a bad matchup for Old Dominion, but it’s also a dangerous opponent for WKU. ODU has been knocking on the door of a win for a few weeks. They have been much better than many thought they would be this season. WKU has found ways to mess things up so far this season, be it discipline, execution in big moments, getting out to good starts, or not being able to stop anyone to save their lives. So to be so arrogant as to say WKU wins no matter what might be a little over the top.

However, this really feels bad for ODU. Western’s offense should not have any trouble getting up and down the field, and how does a 23 points per game offense find a way to score what’s going to have to be 40 or 50 points to win? Offenses with a 50 percent passer are not a good matchup against a team that can score in bunches. I believe ODU really needs a lot of mistakes by WKU and an off night from Bailey Zappe to pull off the upset.

I’m not seeing WKU lose this one in too many scenarios. WKU would have to be completely out of character to lose this matchup this season. ODU just won’t be able to keep up offensively. But I do think ODU will be able to score some against the Tops. I’ve got Western winning fairly easily, Western Kentucky 48-Old Dominion 29.