WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. FAU
Western Kentucky is now bowl eligible and fighting to solidify its spot in a Conference USA Championship game, something that has eluded the Tops for five seasons. Western last stood atop C-USA in 2016, when Jeff Brohm, Mike White, and Co. took home the hardware, leading the Tops to its second C-USA Championship in a row. In 2021, the Tops are three games away from glory. Standing in the way next is C-USA East opponent under the tutelage of former WKU alum Willie Taggart, Head Coach of the Florida Atlantic Owls.
So much hangs in the balance of this game. Things like recruiting in Florida. Winning against another team that is leaving C-USA. Beating a former head coach of the Tops who chose to leave his Alma Mater. A guaranteed winning record and a crucial seventh win in terms of bowl positioning. Eliminating yet another quality opponent from contention. On top of that, it’s Senior Day. A win would be likely setting up a Moonshine Throwdown in Huntington that Topper fans should be scrambling to figure out how to get to Marshall next Saturday. That one could be epic. Winning keeps pressure on UAB and UTSA to keep winning in order to host the C-USA Championship. Chasing a ten win season. Heck a nine win season, something Tyson Helton miraculously did in his first season on The Hill, would still tie the third best finish and would only be the fourth time total since fully joining the FBS in 2009.
So in case you’re a Topper fan and aren’t sure what this game means, yeah it means a lot. Sure, if you do the math, with FAU down two games and Marshall already down a game, this game actually means nothing in terms of the East standings. I would be remiss to not mention that. But literally everything else is huge. Also, if Marshall happens to screw the pooch here and loses and loses at Charlotte (not impossible), WKU clinches the East with a win, and the game in Huntington next week is all fun and games, right (yeah right)? WKU gets to play bright and early Saturday morning at 11 AM Central, so Charlotte and Marshall will possibly know the situation by kickoff, if not by the end of the first quarter of their 2:30 Central Time game. Let’s see if WKU is able to put pressure on Marshall to not choke against Charlotte.
This game is huge for a variety of reasons. So both teams should be amped up and ready to go. FAU (5–5, 3–3 C-USA) is fighting for bowl eligibility and clinging to hopes of a share of the East Division. So what does WKU (6–4, 5–1 C-USA) need to do to go into this clash on Senior Day and beat a really good Florida Atlantic Owls team?
Keys to Victory
Avoid the Noise
No I’m not talking about the WKU crowd, although if it’s a wonderful atmosphere, that’s a nice bonus for the Tops, who generally play in front of steadily decreasing crowd sizes every football season. But the noise I’m talking about is all of the excitement around the end of this season. Putting together several games in a row. To accomplish what WKU ultimately wants to do, they’re going to have to win nine games in a row, and they’re going to have to win four more from here. That locker room and building has to be buzzing with nervous excitement. WKU has won five games and none of them were closer than 15 point victories. So block all of that crap out and focus on 11 o’clock against the Owls. Nothing else matters right now. Take care of your business, boys.
Slow Down the Run: Keep it under 200
It’s Willie Taggart. You know he loves to run the ball. FAU rushes for over 170 yards per game, and that is with a .500 record, meaning the more games they win, the more they would tend to rush the ball. Well, if you’re looking for keys to the game, a big rushing total is probably a really bad problem for the Tops. I’d say if WKU keeps it under 150, they’re almost definitely winning the game going away. If they keep it under 200, that’s probably good enough. If it’s much over 200, that means FAU is having its way with the Tops and running the clock out on Western’s prolific offense. Watch for long, grueling drives by the Owls. And of course, watch for big plays in the running game that explode that total upwards. But overall, just look at the style of the game. If it’s a bludgeoning, physical style of game with a lot of punts, turnovers, and field goals, that’s probably advantage FAU.
Red Zone Production: Do Not Come up Empty More than Once OR Force FAU to Miss on Multiple Red Zone Trips
Anytime a team forces WKU to kick a field goal instead of a touchdown, that’s a huge win for their defense. Also, FAU is exceptionally good at keeping its opponents from scoring in the red zone, period. That’s right. FAU has kept opponents from scoring at all 14 times this season, which amounts to over one-third of the opportunities opponents have received. That’s about 1.5 times per game. That’s huge if they can do that multiple times against WKU. They allow touchdowns less than half of the time their opponent enters the red zone. They may be middle-of-the-road in allowing red zone trips, period, but they are fourth in the country in Red Zone Defense Percentage. WKU is tied for 90th. By contrast, the Owls are 91st in the country in red zone offense and WKU is 31st in the same category.
So running those numbers, if WKU can get a few stops and take care of its own business, doesn’t it stand to reason that FAU would face a difficult uphill battle?
Win the Trenches and You Win the Game
This is why this should be a bad matchup for FAU on paper: WKU has twice as many sacks as its opponents, and FAU has given up more than twice the sacks (29) that it has administered upon its opponents (13). They also do not have a sack master, someone who is statistically capable of going for three or four sacks in one game. In addition, there’s no question WKU has the deeper and better skilled position offensive players. Only one player (Jaylen Joiner) on FAU’s roster has more than one sack this season, and he had a single sack in three different games. WKU has four guys with at least 2.5 sacks. So if statistical trends continue, FAU should lose the battle of the trenches, thereby forcing the Owls to have a better combination of quarterback, receivers, running backs, and tight ends.
So why are the trenches so important in this game? If WKU controls the line of scrimmage, FAU is going to have to find a way to lose that battle and somehow beat an offense that averages 520 yards per game with an offense of its own that barely produces 400. I don’t see any realistic scenario where FAU doesn’t win this battle and somehow wins the game. They need to make this game a nasty sludgefest.
Win the Stats That Suggest Good Fundamentals and Discipline
Another thing that has plagued WKU this season has been a lack of discipline, and sometimes a lack of focus on both sides of the ball. Whether it is at the beginning of the game where the Tops sometimes dig themselves a hole, or it is on third down when the defense just needs to get off of the field, sometimes WKU makes a silly error and allows the opponent to continue its progress.
What stats am I getting at? Let’s start with penalties. WKU has had several games where they had some foolish 15 yard penalties that killed drives or extended them, depending on which side of the ball was affected. How about third down on both sides of the ball? WKU has been better on third down of late, but still, WKU gives up a first down on 45 percent of its third down attempts. The offense was also well above 50 percent at the beginning of the year, and that number has plummeted below 50 percent to 46 percent. There have been several games of late where WKU would convert about one third of its opportunities on third down. That would be bad news Saturday. Special teams is another area that shows good fundamentals and discipline.
Finally, turnovers. WKU has been forcing a ton of turnovers. FAU intercepts the ball more than once per game. They also fumble the ball over to the opponent about once per game. But they have only thrown four interceptions all year as a team, so WKU may not be able to rely on turnovers in this particular game. Again, what if WKU forces zero turnovers? Do they have the discipline to win without them against a good team?
Prediction
I see FAU as a dangerous team, but not a team that I view as most likely to upset WKU in its quest for a championship. First of all, FAU has slipped in recent weeks, going from looking like the favorite to possibly finishing in the bottom half of the standings. So the momentum is not remotely on their side. However, they are plenty talented to get it done. Also, QB N’Kosi Perry does a good job taking care of the football, only turning it over seven total times (including three fumbles) while accounting for 21 touchdowns (four rushing). In addition, FAU has a really good running back in Johnny Ford, who averages more than 100 yards per game combined on the ground and through the air.
Defensively is where I see the most issues for FAU. In a game where they will not be favored (+10.5), they will need some extraordinary performances from players on the defense, or they will need an incredible combined effort as a team defensively. The problem is, like I sort of touched on above, no one all season has gotten more than one sack in a single game. Only one player has more than one total sack all season, and he only has three. No one has gotten more than a single interception in one game. Only one person has forced more than one fumble, and only one person has recovered more than one fumble this season. What I’m getting at is who on this team, really on either side of the ball, stands out as the superstar? Maybe Johnny Ford? But FAU does a lot of its damage by committee, meaning they don’t have that extraordinary NFL level talent that can blow up the game on his own. FAU is clearly well-coached, because as a unit on both sides of the ball, they get it done. However, when the time comes, who’s the man?
WKU has DeAngelo Malone, Antwon Kincade, Will Ignont, Jerreth Sterns, Mitchell Tinsley, and Bailey Zappe to name a few. Throw in all three of the specialists for WKU, as well, because they’re all exceptional. FAU does not have that amount of gamebreakers. And this is not a WKU lovefest. This is just being honest by looking at the statistics and evaluating each roster. WKU has standout statistical players, players on the national radar for different awards. FAU is a very good team, but they do it by having depth and relying on scheme and system to help the players make great plays.
So all of that being said, I don’t see as many avenues for FAU to break up the favorite’s route to victory. FAU needs several people to be gamebreakers. That can happen on a team with so many solid contributors, but I just think it’s a little too much to ask a team without a ton of elite talent to all of a sudden develop four or five guys to stand out and beat a really good WKU team with a lot of momentum and a lot more elite talent. I see FAU hanging around a little more than some of the other recent opponents, but I still see WKU winning this one fairly easily. I’ve got Western beating Taggart on his first time back to WKU in nearly a decade. Give me Western Kentucky: 41, Florida Atlantic: 24.
